Here are my favorite plays for the four-gamer on Friday night. Shorter writeup than usual due to the small slate. Be sure to check out the Saturday main slate preview as well. Good luck this week!
Core Plays
QB Brennan Armstrong, NC State – $9,200
RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State – $5,800
WR Deion Burks, Purdue – $5,300
I’m calling Armstrong a core play because he’s my top QB on the slate and is affordable when you consider the other positions are marked down, but I don’t think you have to play him by any means. Virginia has been terrible defensively, ranking 130th in EPA per play and 131st in success rate. Armstrong should be able to beat the Hoos both through the air (120th in EPA per pass, 120th in passing success rate) and the ground (128th in EPA per rush, 129th in rushing success rate).
Jeanty’s price is ridiculous and he should be in lineups whether or not George Holani returns. SDSU ranks dead last (133rd) in rushing success rate and Jeanty is an absolute monster who has scored 28+ DK points in all three of his games this season.
Burks is an explosive player and the lead target in an Air Raid passing attack. He’s already had one dud this season and that makes everyone a bit nervous, but he’s been aces in his other two games. Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t been lights out like usual and while it will likely improve this season, it probably won’t be near elite like usual. The Badgers are a bit susceptible through the air, ranking 60th in EPA per pass and 84th in passing explosiveness.
Secondary Plays
Cash – QBs Taylen Green, Boise State, – $6,800 / QB Hudson Card, Purdue – $6,300
GPPs – QB Zac Larrier, Air Force – $7,400
Also in consideration – QB Chevan Cordeiro, SJSU – $7,000
There’s not much clarity for your second quarterback. Green is decent in cash because he’s a good runner. Card isn’t very exciting but DK hates Purdue players and prices him too cheap, and Wisconsin’s defense isn’t too scary this year so far. He should throw it a lot, anyway. Cordeiro is fine in all formats — I don’t love playing guys against service academies because you might only get the ball once a quarter, and AF has a good defense, but Cordeiro finds his way to value almost every week and is affordable. He’s probably the easiest projection in this range, which says something about this slate considering the matchup. Larrier makes a lot of sense in GPPs as a track star who could see 15+ rushes against a terrible SJSU rushing defense. He’s as risky as they come as a single-digit performance is in the cards – it just depends on who they feed, which is nearly impossible to predict on a weekly basis. GPPs only
RB Emmanuel Michel, Air Force – $5,500
RB John Lee Eldridge III, Air Force – $4,900
He exploded for 28-106-3 last week against Utah State. That performance came out of nowhere, so now we have to guess if it will continue or if Michel was a one-week wonder. SJSU’s rushing defense is so bad (116th in EPA per rush, 110th in rushing success rate) that I’m willing to bet on Michel’s success continuing, especially in non-Larrier lineups. I think you want one Air Force player, and even Owen Burk is in consideration. Burk has been more reliable (better numbers, more field time in the first two weeks) and is fine in cash, but Michel is the goal-line back anyway and it’s hard to look away from 28 carries last week and not think the usage might be changing. Still, tournaments only. Eldridge almost never gets a lot of carries but his analytics are always superb and he could go for 100+ and a touchdown at low ownership if he gets 12 carries, so he’s a fantastic GPP play despite likely finishing with single-digit DK points at a ~50% clip.
RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin – $7,900
RB Chez Mellusi, Wisconsin – $6,000
WR Will Pauling, Wisconsin – $4,900
WR Chimere Dike, Wisconsin – $5,400
Purdue’s defense has really stunk so far, getting gashed by both Fresno State and Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 89th in EPA per play and 114th in explosiveness and I think that’s understandable given the personnel losses from a year ago. They’ve been bad against the rush (111th in rushing explosiveness) and the pass (91st in EPA per pass, 93rd in passing explosiveness). That means we want 1-2 Badgers in our lineup, but the problem is they have been a mess to figure out. Allen is getting less work than Mellusi in the ground game but I don’t understand what the hell Longo is doing because Braelon the Beast leads the team with 16 receptions. They’ve gone for a meager total of 41 yards, which makes sense because that’s not his game at all. Allen gets the pass-catching and goal-line work (high leverage usage), so he’s my preferred option but he’s not a must-play. Dike leads the team in pass snaps but Pauling has been targetted more and that jives with Longo’s offense, so I think it’s a toss-up on who you play but the slot guy is cheaper so why not go with him unless you’re in GPPs and looking for leverage.
WR Nick Nash, SJSU – $5,300
WR Eric McAlister, Boise State – $6,200
WR Kevin Concepcion, NC State – $6,400
WR Max Klare, Purdue – $4,800
WR Dominick Mazotti, SJSU – $3,400
Gross grouping of WRs here. Nash looks like SJSU’s WR1 this year and Justin Lockhart is out for the year. Mazotti is coming on strong and dominated the TE reps last week now that he’s back to health — he’s by far the best pay-down option in my opinion. McAlister has 30 targets in three games for Boise State. Concepcion is Armstrong’s top stacking option, although I don’t think you have to do that. Klare has 13 receptions in his last two games and looks like a huge part of the offense right now.
