Here are my top plays this week for the DraftKings 14-gamer main slate on Saturday.
Core Plays
QB Tyler Shough, Texas Tech – $8.100
RB Rasheen Ali, Marshall – $6,000
WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville – $6,600
Shough is always in play considering he’s a dual-threat playing in an extremely fantasy-friendly CFF scheme that rips off more plays per game than any team in the country. Volume? Check. Rushing upside? Check. Chance for huge passing stats? Check. Good matchup? Check. West Virginia’s defense has some nice stats to start the year but they’ve also benefited from soft matchups. I think their secondary stinks and is mighty toastable. They rank 131st in passing explosiveness so Shough should be able to hit a few big plays in this one as well.
I’m not sure any RB truly qualifies as a “core” play this week considering there are so many options. There are only two spots to fill and there are more options at the position than any other on this slate, in my opinion. Ali gets the nod due to his extremely heavy usage rate and cheap price, and he looks great in all formats. I don’t think he’s a “must play” by any means, but he’s the top cost-adjusted back. Virginia Tech’s defense has struggled, ranking 92nd in EPA per play, and has really failed to stop the run (121st in EPA per rush, 112th in rushing success rate).
Another week, another core play sighting from Thrash. I’ve done my whole shtick about DraftKings refusing to correctly price Brohm’s players plenty of times before, so you probably don’t need me to get into it again. I won’t waste time here — he’s a terrific play at cost. His price is way off and he’s an elite asset, so the only reason you’re not playing him is if you’re trying to get leverage in a large-field GPP.
Secondary Plays
QB Bo Nix, Oregon – $9,600
QB Jalon Daniels, Kansas – $8,400
QB Preston Stone, SMU – $7,400
QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama – $8,300
Bo will be difficult to pay for this week but must be considered for your player pool as an elite CFF asset with a fantastic week. I think Colorado’s defense is absolutely terrible and that Oregon likely puts a big-time hurting on them this weekend at Autzen, so Nix’s floor and ceiling combination is the best you’ll find this week. He deserves to be the price king. It won’t hurt that the Buffs look to turn every game into a shootout and will be missing Travis Hunter. I considered making Nix a core play but didn’t only because it’ll be challenging to find the salary.
Jalon Daniels and Preston Stone are two QBs I was super high on going into the year, so I find them to be weekly options any time they’re on a DFS slate. Neither has come out of the gates swinging this year, but that just means they could go lower-owned due to decreased expectations. I view both as fine in any format but preferable in GPPs. Both play in elite schemes for elite offenses and the matchups don’t really scare me.
Milroe is a wild card this week after inexplicably riding the pine a week ago. He’s one of the best rushing threats in the country at his position and that means he can run wild any week. I’m
RB CJ Donaldson, WVU – $5,900
Again, there are a lot of good backs to choose from his week. Donaldson’s price is ridiculous this week so he’s fine in all formats. The Mountaineers were already expected to be super rush-heavy this year with a good stable of backs, a strong offense line, and huge question marks at both quarterback and receiver. That’s only more amplified now that their starting QB is hurt — they compiled 51 rush attempts to just 11 pass attempts a week ago against Pitt. Donaldson is a borderline core play against a TTU defense ranking 100th in rush explosiveness.
RB Will Shipley, Clemson – $5,700
RB Jawhar Jordan, Louisville – $6,500
Shipley and Jordan are both fine this week as they’re priced well below their value. The matchup isn’t a great one for Shipley and the Clemson offense still has a lot to prove, but he’s still a terrific college back with good pass-catching ability and explosiveness going against a team that surrendered 457 yards on 6.1 yards per play to lowly Boston College a week ago. Jordan is a home run threat whose usage has been all over the place to start the year, but he’s been uber-productive and led the way with 18 carries last week. One would think this is a good matchup against a BC defense ranking 92nd in rushing success rate, but it did just hold Trey Benson to 12-38-1.
RB Blake Corum, Michigan – $8,300
RB Bucky Irving, Oregon – $7,500
RB Corey Kiner, Cincinnati – $5,100
RB Emani Bailey, TCU – $6,400
I’m not making any of these backs a priority but they’re all fine in lineups. Corum is a monster each and every week who seems to go overlooked more often than not, and I’m not sure why. His price is up there and he’ll be difficult to afford, but the Wolverines are favored by four scores at home and Corum could do a lot of that scoring.
As mentioned earlier, I think Oregon destroys Colorado and I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang 50+, which means Bucky Irving could have a very nice day — I just wish he was cheaper. Kiner and Bailey are priced below where they should be, but neither stands out with so many good backs to choose from.
WR Evan Stewart, Texas A&M – $6,700
WR Jimmy Horn Jr., Colorado – $7,300
WR Xavier Weaver, Colorado – $7,200
There are lot of WRs to choose from to pair with Thrash but none I’m in love with. I’ll be mentioning Stewart’s name on every slate he’s on most likely as he’s a week-in, week-out stud who should have a monster year. Petrino’s MO is to get his best players to ball as much as possible and Stewart is the best play on the Aggies. He missed last week as a precaution but sounds fine this week — still, monitor any updates.
The two top Colorado WRs are both playable every week as well. I was Weaver’s number one fan in the offseason and have been pleasantly and greedily rubbing my fingers together counting his fantasy points so far. He’s fine every week and that game should shoot out. He and Horn should see an uptick in targets with Hunter out this week and both have decent floors and very high ceilings as volume hogs with game-breaking ability in a terrific offensive system.
WR J. Michael Surdivant, UCLA – $6,400
WR Jerand Bradley, TTU – $5,900
WR Xavier Restrepo, Miami – $5,800 / WR Colbie Young, Miami – $5,400
WR Jordan Kerley, SMU – $5,300
WR Myles Price, TTU – $4,800
WR Kody Epps, BYU – $4,500
WR Dante Wright, Temple – $4,400
Take your pick of the litter for this crew. Sturdivant might be a first-round NFL draft pick and should go pretty under-owned after two down weeks, and Utah’s corners are much more burnable than most people probably realize. He makes a lot of sense as a leverage play in tournaments.
Bradley is fine to pair with Shough as DK seems intent on underpricing him and his teammate, Myles Price. Price looks really good in cash games while Bradley is probably best for GPPs as they like throwing him these stupid routes down the sideline that seem to have a small success rate but are relied upon as a big part of the offense.
The two Miami WRs are fine in a soft matchup. It seems like the new OC Dawson has really led some improvements in this offense and while I’m still waiting for Mario’s old-school ass to ruin it, the stats so far are undeniable — sixth in EPA per play overall, sixth in EPA per pass, eighth in passing success rate. I think Restrepo has been underrated for a while now and he’s been very consistent to start the year with at least 13.8 FPs in all three games and going over the century mark in each of his last two. Young has made some big mistakes but still has a lot of upside as this team’s deep threat who has good size for red zone utilization.
Kerley and Epps have both been duds this season but have massive upside at cheap price points. Kerley was a nonfactor until last week when he caught two TDs. He was the projected WR1 going into the year — a role that has been extremely lucrative for Lashlee in the past. He makes a lot of sense in tournaments. Epps was hurt to start the year but caught six TDs in eight games a year ago and returned to the field last week despite seeing just a single target. He may not be fully healthy yet and that makes him hard to play, but if I see any positive reports then he’ll be in a few of my lineups. Dante Wright has a whopping 27 targets in three games as his team’s top weapon in the passing game and therefore is fine in all formats but especially appealing in cash.
Punts
QB Thomas Castellanos, Boston College – $5,900
QB E.J. Warner, Temple – $5,100
Castellanos has been a volume hog rushing the ball since taking over BC’s starting QB gig, rushing exactly 16 times in each of the last two games while compiling 164 rushing yards and a touchdown in that span. He’s always possessed good athleticism and that made him a CFF Dynasty priority of mine in years past, so I’m a believer in his ability to rack up points using his legs. I’m not sure his success throwing the ball will continue, but I’ll note that he looked good last week, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt while totaling 305 yards against a good Florida State defense.
Warner isn’t my favorite option this week but he is very cheap and will likely be playing from behind, so he could have some good passing volume. We saw him explode toward the end of the year when Temple went more pass happy and while he hasn’t done much this year, he did throw the ball 97 times across the first two games of the season, which is encouraging.
WR Caden Prieskorn, Ole Miss – $3,500
WR David Martin-Robinson, Temple – $3,400
WR RJ Maryland, SMU – $3,400
WR Austin Stogner, Oklahoma – $3,300
WR Thomas Yassmin, Utah – $3,300
WR Peyton Singletary, Cinci – $3,100
DraftKings hates tight ends and prices some good starters near the bottom of the salary board each and every week. It’s quite frustrating because none of these guys can really be relied on but they’re also super cheap and become valuable assets if they work their way into a couple of catches and a touchdown, which I think is a viable outcome for every TE on this list. The one with the most upside is Maryland, who has been a dud so far this year but is a very talented pass catcher who will likely explode for some big games this season as a GPP play.
WR Jordan Brown, TTU – $3,400
WR Zae Baines, Temple – $3,300
Neither of these are my favorite options, but both have outcomes that could be very profitable. Baines might be my favorite of all the WR punts this week as he’s expected to start and Temple could throw the ball a lot as +23 underdogs. Baines finished LY with 17-213-2 across his final four games so it’s not unreasonable to think he finds the endzone in a productive day against a mid Miami secondary. Brown’s playing time is a mystery at this point as his game logs look nice but he racked up last week’s production in garbage time.
