One of the funniest things about the college football offseason is the debate of strength of schedule. Things will certainly change as early as Week 1 as we figure out what teams have over- and underachieved expectations. I’ve thrown together Strength of Schedule ratings based on preseason S&P Rankings and incorporated teams’ home records over recent years to gauge the difficulty of road games. I’ve compiled a list of teams that appear to benefit the most from facing a schedule in 2019.
Virginia Tech: 75th Ranked Schedule
Toughest Games:
10/5 @Miami (FL)
11/2 @Notre Dame
11/29 @Virginia
After a couple of disappointing seasons behind Justin Fuentes, the Hokies are looking to make a dent in a down ACC Coastal division. The Hokies face two FCS foes in 2019, along with a revenge game against Old Dominion at home. Outside of a trip to Miami (FL) early in October, the schedule unfolds very favorably until a road trip to Notre Dame in early November. It’s a possibility that a 7-1 Hokies team finds its way into South Bend if they don’t hit a speed bump like they did last season with ODU. The last month of the season does toughen up with trips to Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Virginia. Virginia Tech’s schedule should allow them to approach the 10 win mark if they can stay away from any major upsets.
Miami (FL) – 77th Ranked Schedule
Toughest Games:
8/24 Florida Gators (N)
10/1 Virginia Cavaliers
11/2 @Florida State
The Hurricanes roll into the 2019 season as the 19th ranked team according to S&P preseason rankings. They boast the lowest-ranked schedule among all top 20 teams. The next closest team is the Clemson Tigers at 57th. In Week 0, the Canes face off against their toughest opponent of the 2019 season in the Florida Gators, in a neutral site game in Orlando, Florida. Outside of the Gators, they have a very manageable first month of the season. They have two bye weeks, an FCS opponent, a 1-11 Central Michigan team, and rebuilding North Carolina. Facing Virginia Tech and Virginia back-to-back weeks at home will be a tough stretch. Outside of a road trip to a retooling Florida State team, the Canes do not face a scary road game. Miami has a very serviceable schedule that can allow them to overachieve and potentially reach 10 wins with some good luck.
Nebraska – 80th Ranked Schedule
Toughest Games:
9/28 Ohio State
11/16 Wisconsin
11/29 Iowa
Nebraska enters 2019 looking to bounce back from a disappointing year one under Scott Frost. The 2019 schedule appears to be extremely favorable for that bounce back. The Cornhuskers currently have one of the easiest road schedules in the entire country. Road games at Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, and Maryland are all very winnable. Only one of those opponents rank inside the top 55 in the S&P Rankings. Traveling late in the season to Purdue could be a hiccup; just ask Ohio State about that. Nebraska does face Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa but all three foes must travel to Lincoln. Outside of the Buckeyes, the first month of the season is very manageable. Starting at 4-1 should be expected in Lincoln. Finishing the season with 9 or even 10 wins isn’t crazy given the soft schedule.
Other Notable Schools with Weak Schedules
UCF: 92nd Ranked Schedule
To begin September, they face a stretch of games at FAU, vs. Stanford, and at Pittsburgh. Outside of that three-game stretch, a game at Cincinnati and home against Houston look to be the Knights toughest games.
Memphis: 93rd Ranked Schedule
A home game to open the year against Ole Miss and a November game at Houston appear to be the Tigers’ biggest thorns this season. They avoid drawing UCF in regular-season play.
App. State: 108th Ranked Schedule
Road contests against North Carolina and South Carolina are the only teams ranked inside the preseason top 60.
Boise State: 112th Ranked Schedule
Outside of a neutral site game against Florida State, road games against BYU and Utah State rank as the top tests for the Broncos.
