UMass @ FSU (-35.5/59.5)
UMass 1-5. L 7-51 @ Pitt – 209-598 (3.6-7.0), L 28-45 BC – 335-471 (5.7-7.7), L 28-42 EMU – 519-507 (7.1-7.7), L 3-53 @ Coastal – 158-558 (2.9-8.0), L 7-45 Toledo – 134-455 (2.6-6.2), W 27-13 UConn – 407-291 (5.2-5.3).
FSU 2-4. L 38-41 ND – 442-431 (6.0-6.2), L 17-20 Jacksonville State – 335-350 (4.7-4.5), L 35-14 @ Wake -317-484 (6.2-5.4), L 23-31 – 453-395 (6.0-4.9), W 33-30 Cuse – 378-389 (5.5-6.2), W 35-25 @ UNC – 383-432 (7.1-6.4)
Both teams off bye week. I’m sure both teams benefited from getting healthier as they did the first half grind, but both teams kinda gotta be disappointed as they both had momentum. Umass beat UConn in the toilet bowl and FSU upset UNC as a big dog. Against the three most comparable foes, UMass scored 7, 28, and 3 points with 209, 335, and 158 yards. That’s an average of 13 points and 234 yards in those contests. I believe that is a reasonable assumption in terms of output. In an attempt to summarize their offensive strength, I came up empty. They don’t do anything well. In the three games where they’ve eclipsed 300 yards of offense, they’ve primarily had success via air. They ran for 247 yards against UConn, but they didn’t do much on the ground against the big boys. They won’t do anything on the ground against FSU, both because of their disadvantage in that area as well as FSU’s strength. FSU rush offense against UMass rush defense is the most significant edge in this game. I haven’t fully vetted this statement, but that may be the most lopsided advantage of any game this week. The pace should be pretty average. As always in these types of games, the side and total likely come down to FSU’s motivation and how they handle the late stages of the contest. We have no data to go off of in terms of how Norvell will handle a game like this at FSU. They beat Jacksonville State last year 41-24 in their only blowout potential game but then lost outright to them this year. If forced to call it, I’d lean FSU and over. FSU certainly could hang a 50-burger, as did Pitt and Coastal, while BC and Toledo scored 45 a pop. 49-13 Noles.
GT @ UVA (-7/62)
GT 3-3. L 21-22 NIU – 429-301 (5.5-5.1), W 45-17 Kenny St – 412-272 (7.0-4.3), L 14-8 @ Clem – 309-284 (4.3-4.3), W 45-22 UNC – 394-369 (6.4-5.0), L 21-52 Pitt – 432-580 (6.8-7.4), W 31-27 @ Duke – 440-489 (6.9-5.4)
UVA 5-2. W 43-0 Bill & Mary 545-183 (8.5-3.5), W 42-14 Illinois – 556-337 (7.6-4.7), L 39-59 @ UNC – 574-699 (7.3-10.3), L 17-37 Wake – 506-473 (5.9-6.4) , W 30-28 @ Miami – 449-372 (5.7-5.4), W 34-33 @ Ville – 522-513 (6.1-8.4), W Duke 48-0 – 528-325 (6.7-4.0)
Georgia Tech is off of a bye week but they won at Duke 31-27 prior to that. They didn’t run the ball all that well, but now that Sims has the ball again, they have his extremely explosive rushing abilities and can create more explosives, but they are also more erratic and things can go just as poorly as they do good. Overall, they are a balanced, above-average offense. After the first two cupcakes for UVA, they’ve faced some pretty good offenses. They aren’t good at anything on defense. They shut out Duke last week in a 48-0 massacre, but it was deceptive. Duke couldn’t get out of their own way but moved the ball well with 325 yards at 6 YPP. Somehow, UVA was 3-11 on third down but posted 48 points, 528 yards, at 6.7 YPP. They’ve run the ball better the past two weeks than they did to start the year and some that is due to Armstrong’s legs opening things up. I didn’t realize he was nursing a lower bottom injury for the majority of the early part of the season and that’s why he wasn’t running as much. Additionally, the OL got beat far too often. They rank in the bottom 20 nationally in sacks allowed and while GT ranks average in sacks, they are a disruptive group, per my eyes. The GT rush offense should have success against the UVA rush defense. That is a big edge for Tech. Prior to last week’s matchup against Duke, UVA had allowed 59, 37, and 33 points to dual-threat QBs. GT is susceptible to the pass and they are likely to face a high volume barrage in this game. They allow explosives and UVA’s offense is both creative and volume-oriented. These two didn’t play last year, but they have traded wins each of the past three seasons with UVA winning 33-28. Pace in this game will likely be above average, but probably not blistering. Against ACC foes, UVA has allowed 59, 37, 28, 33, and 0. That’s an average of 30 and a median of 33. GT has scored 8, 45, 21, and 31 in conference play – 26 average. I’m not ready to buy the UVA defense after last week’s showing, and I think that GT rates to improve on offense as the year progresses. Getting the extra week to prep for UVA’s unique offense is a pretty significant advantage, I think. I have a small bet on over 59. This number is ten points lower than last week’s total in Duke/UVA, and I can’t get fully on board with that. This one opened 65.5 at Circa and took and a bunch of money before a 59 open offshore. 59 was my target number here and I wouldn’t have played it even a half-point higher. I’m pressing what I believe is a slight edge here. 34-28 UVA.
BC @ Ville (-6.5/57)
BC 4-2. W 51-0 Colgate 525-189 (8.1-3.5) WITH JURK*, W 45-28 over UMass 471-335 (7.7-5.7) MOSTLY GROSSEL, W 28-3 over Temple 221-239 (4.6-4.0) NO JURK TEMPLE BACKUP QB*, W 41-34 (34-34 reg) Missouri (OT) – 450-391 (5.8-6.0) GROSSEL, L 13-19 @ Clemson – 357-438 (4.8-6.4), L 7-33 NC State – 291-381 (4.2-6.6)
Ville 3-3. L 43-24 Ole Miss (N) 355-569 (7.8-4.6), W 30-3 EKU – 441-235 (6.9-4.2), W 42-35 UCF 501-420 (6.6-6.6), W 31-23 @ FSU – 395-453 (4.9-6.0), L 34-37 @ Wake – 522-501 (7.5-6.0), L 33-34 UVA – 513-522 (8.4-6.1)
After winning four in a row against poor comp, BC has dropped their last two. They had a chance to beat Clemson but fumbled it away late and then were smoked by NC State last week 33-7. That was a fairly deceptive scoreline. NC State was clearly the better team and BC’s limitations were again exposed, but it wasn’t a just four-score loss. BC started out running the ball well and the offense was moving but they kinda gummed up for the second half. NC State made a circus catch to take the lead, BC had a ball caught and batted away for a would-be TD, and then NC state blocked a punt for a TD. It was then 17-7 early 3Q and then Grossel had an unlucky pick off his WRs mitts. NC State followed that up with a nice TD drive, 24-7. Late 3Q, NC State had another super weird long TD play. Couple of guys collided and Thomas ran free for a 79 yard TD, 31-7 late 3Q. BC was tackled in the end zone for a safety which concluded the final points of the game, 33-7. Leary had 119 of his 251 passing yards on two quirky plays. The NC State defense buckled down when they needed to and was clearly the best unit on the field, as expected. If BC can run the ball, they can be effective on offense, but if Grossel has to throw nearly 40 times, they won’t do well. BC is just an average ACC team. They won’t likely contend with the upper crusts but they don’t have any massive holes, other than a limited passing offense. Scott Satterfield gets lots of praise for his coaching acumen, but I think he’s been poor this year. He didn’t have his guys ready for the Ole Miss blitzkrieg in the opener, nearly choked the game away against FSU, and did blow a 17 point lead to UVA in a loss. Their issue is that they are too willing to go conservative on both offense and defense when they don’t need to. I mean brutally conservative. It’s like they think they are the Bama teams from a decade ago and just finishing off a game with an elite roster and teams can’t stand up to them. They ain’t that. They are a dynamic offense that is ground-heavy, but Cunningham’s athleticism and ability to make plays out of structure, combined with some unique pass-catchers comprise their secret sauce. They have a negative point differential on year, and their defense has failed them too often, but they aren’t an objectively terrible defense as their 34 PPG allowed could indicate. They’ve played some talented offenses with various strengths. BC will be one of the worst offenses they’ve faced. The clear weakness of the Ville defense is exposed against the pass. I don’t know that BC is going to consistently trouble them via air. On the other side, BC hasn’t faced much in the way of mobile QBs this year. Certainly no one like Cunningham. They didn’t stand out against them last year. They allowed 34 PPG on average against mobile QBs. BC won this game 34-27 last season. Cunningham had 400+ total yards of offense but the +2 TO margin for BC got them the win. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years and BC has won 3 of the past 4. I think Ville is the better team and I like the matchups, but I can’t bring myself to trust their coaching right now after nearly burning and actually burning me their past two games. I’ll go Ville 34-24 with a lean to the Cards, but no play unless BC takes some money.
Cuse @ VT (-3.5/46)
Cuse 3-4. W 29-9 Ohio (383-346, 6.2-5.5), L 7-17 Rutgers (258-195, 4.2-2.7), W 62-24 Albany (623-135, 9.4-2.5), W 24-21 Liberty – 305-369 (4.5-6.0), L 30-33 @ FSU – 389-378 (6.2-5.5), L 37-40 Wake (OT- 34-34 REG) – 514-426 (6.0-6.2), L 14-17 Clemson – 356-314 (5.3-4.3)
VT 3-3. W 17-10 UNC – 296-354 (4.8-5.6), W 35-14 MTSU – 383 -349 (5.7-4.6), L 21-27 @ WVU 329-373 (4.5-6.2), W 21-10 Richmond -318-237 (5.1-4.0), L 29-32 Notre Dame – 321-401 (4.5-5.8), L 7-28 Pitt – 224-411 (3.7-5.1)
Cuse just lost a heartbreaker at home last Friday to Clemson, 17-14. It was a pretty even game. Cuse had the total yards and YPP edges, but Clemson dropped a couple of passes they shouldn’t have that skewed that. My fear in back Cuse as a 2TD+ dog last week was that their offense could struggle to move the ball against a very good Clemson defense. Sean Tucker ripped off a really nice run and they scored a fairly lucky huge passing TD, but they couldn’t consistently pass with Shrader, who is a terrible thrower, and his legs were nullified, making him and them a very easy defense to stop, aside from some lucky and individual moments of brilliance. Cuse defense hung tough against poor offensive teams. Cuse is tough to run on defensively. VT doesn’t do anything well on offense, but I suppose their relative strength is running the ball, but I hesitate to call it that. It’s just less terrible than their pass offense, which is really bad. Their performance last week against Pitt was one of the worst I’ve seen from them under Fuente, and that is saying something. They lost the game 28-7, and an argument could be made that if it wasn’t quite so windy, it could have been slightly worse for their defense. Their pass defense is formidable and they’ve faced some pretty good ones. That won’t be the name of the game against the ground heavy assault of the Orange on the legs of Shrader and Tucker. We haven’t seen how VT will hold up against this style of offense this year. The best snippet that we’ve seen, and it’s not exactly apples to apples was when Notre Dame’s Tyler Buchner entered the game. He’s the best running comp to Shrader, but he was a true freshman on the road and ND can’t run a lick. ND’s offense moved the ball exponentially better with Buchner in the game and provides some optimism that they can have success. VT may be without their lockdown corner, Waller, in this one as he was hurt last game. They also lost two key special team contributors last week who will miss this game. I think Cuse is the better football team and the matchups favor them as well. They were badly undervalued by the market last week and I think they are trending that way again this week. Both of these coaches may be coaching for their jobs this week. I think it could be a really conservative game plan and approach from both teams. The last two times these teams met were in 2016 and 2003. VT gets another home game (6) while Cuse makes a rare road trip from the dome (2). I do think that’s an advantage for VT, but the results have been mixed at home in terms of demonstrating as strong an HFA as we’ve come to expect. I do think it will play a role, but it’s always difficult to quantify how significant that will be. I think this is another game that will play out more like an NFL contest and getting a full three or more is more significant, considering the mid 40’s total and likely game scripts. I can’t get on board with VT being more than a 3 point favorite, and I question whether or not they should be favored at all. I took the Orange +3.5. I’ll go with Cuse 22-20 on a game-winning field goal and Szmyt gets his redemption from last week’s laces-in miss to force OT. LACES OUT, DAN!
Clemson @ Pitt (-3.5/48)
Clemson 3-3. L 3-10 UGA (N – Charlotte) – 180-256 (3.0-4.2), W SC State 49-3 – 504-235 (6.7-3.9), W GT 14-8 – 284-309 (4.4-4.4), L 21-27 (14-14 reg) NC State (OT) – 214-386 (4.4-4.0), W 19-13 BC – 438-357 (6.4-4.8), W 17-14 @ Cuse – 314-356 (4.3-5.3)
Pitt 5-1. W 51-7 Umass – 598-209 (7.0-3.6), L 41-44 WMU – 490-517 (8.4-6.0), W 41-34 @ UT – 397-374 (4.8-5.7), W 77-7 New Hamp – 707-160 (8.6-3.0), W 52-21 @ GT – 580-432 (7.4-6.8), L W 28-7 @ VT Pitt 411-224 (5.1-3.7)
Clemson is easy to summarize. Excellent defense, terrible offense. For perspective, their 67 points against FBS foes is the fifth-worst mark for a P5 team in the playoff era. They join 2015 Vandy and 2016 South Carolina as the only teams not to top 21 points vs an FBS opponent in their first five games. Vandy went 4-8 and they did score 21, 0, and 28 in their final three. USCe went 6-7 and finished the final stretch with 24, 31, 7, and 7. I think it gives a solid indication that the sample size is significant enough from a data standpoint to confirm what we’ve seen with our eyes that this offense is in the toilet. I don’t care how much sunshine Dabo wants to pump about this offense and about DJU, he’s been abhorrent. Their only saving grace in recent games is their usage of him as a power runner. Here’s the issue when you play NARD DOG: their rush defense is nails. That means the honus is on DJU as a passer to get them a road victory. I’ve said this for years, the way that you beat a Pitt defense is with a vertical passing attack. Clemson’s passing attack is horizontal. They just dump little out routes to the WRs and TEs. They have yet to demonstrate the ability to push the ball downfield. Can they do it here? They haven’t yet. Pitt’s offense ranks top five nationally at 43 PPG! They’ve been throwing the ball really well with 12th year senior QB, Van Wilder. What makes them even more dangerous is they are starting to feed Abanikanda and now have an average rush offense to boot. They are going to have a hard time against Clemson’s defense, as will most teams. That said, their offense is far more capable of scoring than Clemson’s. I mentioned previously, but Clemson hasn’t shown the ability to take advantage of this Pitt scheme that can be vulnerable to prolific passing attacks. Pitts defense really hasn’t been relying on turnovers to do a job, but they rank near the top in the nation in sacks generated and third-down defense. Clemson’s OL isn’t good and they will have their hands full, as they did against UGA and NC State. The Tigers aren’t turning the ball over much on offense, which could be a reason why they have a winning record. They are terrible on third down, as you’d expect. Clemson has won the past two matchups, 52-17 and 42-10 in ‘19 and ‘18. In ‘16, Pitt got them 43-42 at home. If you remove any pre-season ranks from computer models and can objectively evaluate Clemson, not on their jersey, but on their merit, I believe Pitt would be more than a TD favorite. As such, I bet NARD DOG +3 and +3.5 in the lookaheads last week. I’m in a good position. Per usual, NARD DOG could pee down his leg here in a big spot, but they are rightfully favored. I likely wouldn’t mess with the game at current, but I had an acquisition target on an under bet at 51, which it never touched (50.5 ceiling). I’m just gonna hope that Pitt doesn’t find a way to screw this up. Clemson will likely feast on the underdog role this week, which is an extremely rare occurrence for them in conference play, but they don’t have a good matchup this week. Clemson’s pass defense numbers are excellent and they rarely give up big aerial plays, but they haven’t faced a team that can do the forward pass yet. That changes this week. 26-20 NARD DOG.
NC State @ Miami (+3/51.5)
NC State 5-1. W USF 45-0 – 525-271 (8.0-4.2), L @ Miss St 10-24 – 335-316 (4.4-4.9), W Furman 45-7 – 505-196 (7.4-3.7), W 27-21 (14-14 REG) Clemson (OT) – 386-214 (4.0-4.4), W 34-27 La Tech – 418-480 (6.2-6.1), W 33-7 @ BC – 381-291 (6.6-4.2)
Miami 2-4. L 13-44 Bama (N-Dallas) – 266-501 (4.3-6.5), W 25-23 App State – 375-326 (4.9-4.5), L 17-38 Michigan State – 440-454 (5.2-6.3), W Central Conn St 69-0 – 739-198 (10.6-3.1), L 28-30 UVA – 372-449 (5.4-5.7), L 42-45 @ UNC – 421-382 (5.3-5.2)
Touched on NC State/BC game earlier. To summarize my thoughts on their team strengths and weaknesses: experienced team with an excellent defense and a slightly above-average offense. Their only loss came to NC State, in a game where they turned the ball over in inopportune areas. They can run and pass but I think they are both better at and more comfortable throwing it around.
Miami just played an absolutely drunk game with UNC. There were 800 yards of offense but somehow 87 points scored. UNC led by 18 and it looked like the route that I expected. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke was five for fifteen passing with two picks in the first half. He rallied late in the game and finished 20-45-264-1-3 before being intercepted late in the game and UNC icing it. Miami RB Rooster Knighton caught a simple swing pass in 3Q that he somehow took for 60 yards to the house while showing his elite speed. Miami lost their RB Cam Harris early in the game and he will miss the rest of the season. They just had two former starting WRs enter the transfer portal, but their playing time was dwindling significantly anyway. Van Dyke has now started back-to-back games and hasn’t impressed me much in either. I think he has the potential to be a good QB, but he’s not there yet, and it will surely be a new staff that further grooms him. Miami is 2-4 for the first time since 1997 when they were riddled by probation. If you saw the post-game handshake with Diaz and Mack, Manny knew that was the nail in his coffin. He then stood alone in the tunnel after the game and contemplated why he chose to coach football and not go into politics. I credit the team for not quitting. I knew his firing was coming, but they took me by surprise and took my money after UNC’s offense had an extremely difficult outing. Howell had a couple of very nice runs, Downs was Downs, and Ty Chandler got it going on the ground and UNC was able to outlast the Canes. The good news for me is that due to that absurd scoring game, both in this one and the lopsided scoring output by NC State last week provided an opening total in the 60’s this week. I was shocked to see this total open 61.5 and Miami open as a 2 point favorite. I can’t say I understood either of those, and the market agreed, as the total is 52.5 and NC State is a three-point favorite. I think NC State continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers. Dave Doeren commented after the game that he knows his team isn’t respected but they are gonna just keep playing ball and show the world who they are. I bet under 61.5/58/56 and NC State PICK. I do not think that Van Dyke is going to fare well against this Pack defense. They rank 11th nationally in scoring defense at 16 points per game. They don’t sack the QB very often, but positive regression hit, and they pick off a lot of balls after dropping a million picks last season. Their red zone defense and third-down defense both rank in the top 10 nationally. Miami’s offense ranks 100th or worse in sacks allowed, passing efficiency, interceptions thrown, turnovers, and red zone efficiency. This is not a good matchup for a terrible OL and inexperienced QB against an aggressive, ball-hawking defense. While Diaz hasn’t been let go as of my typing this, I still question whether or not they will get off the mat after a heartbreaking loss in a season in which they no longer have anything left to play for, aside from a pity bowl invite. Pace will be the villain for my under positions, as is the case in most Miami games. Fortunately, NC State is slightly below average paced and what I presume will be a favorable game script will truncate the game. Miami has played a murderer’s row of offenses, and I believe that NC State, while not poor on offense, will present class relief for them, especially after an impressive defensive effort last week, despite the scoreline showing differently. Gut tells me this is closer than it should be. 27-20 Pack.
Wake @ Army (+3/51.5)
Wake 6-0. W 42-0 ODU – 352-272 (5.0-3.5) , W 41-16 Norfolk – 413-336 (6.9-4.8), W 35-14 FSU – 484-317 (5.4-6.2), W 37-17 @ UVA – 473-506 (6.4-5.9), W 37-34 Ville – 501-522 (6.0-7.5), W 40-37 @ Cuse (OT- 34-34 REG) – 426-514 (6.2-6.0)
Army 4-2. W 43-10 @ Ga St -356-177 (5.0-3.7), W 38-35 WKU – 416-477 (8.1-5.7), W 52-21 UConn – 504-225 (7.2-5.0), W 23-10 MOH – 384-232 (5.6-4.9), L 16-28 @ Ball State – 279-269 (3.7-5.0), L 14-20 @ Wisconsin – 266-310 (4.8-5.3)
Wake off bye week. 6-0 and making a run at the natty. Not sure how I can go from, “How is Army so undervalued last week to how is Army so overvalued this week?” Wake with an extra week to prep for the option. They used to play Army semi-regularly. They played five years in a row from ‘12-’16 and Army scored 21, 14, 21, 11, 37 and Wake went 4-1. Three of those years were the brutal Clawfense days when they ran an option pace and were embarrassingly boring. While Wake’s DC has changed since then, I believe teams that have some staff that has gone against it can draw from those experiences. Not much to go into from a matchup standpoint. Wake only allows 22 points per game, but if we are being honest, they are worse than that. Wake rushes the QB extremely well, but they don’t hold up as well against the run, which is a legitimate concern here. If they played this right before the bye, I would have left Wake alone. The fact that they had a break to heal and prep should carry significance. It’s hard to say exactly how many points Army should be good for. They average 31 per game, but similar to Wake’s defense, but inversely, their offense isn’t that good. They’ve played a pathetic schedule to date. The matchup that intrigues me most in this game is Wake’s passing against Army’s secondary. The Cadets have played one of the worst cohorts of passing offense to date. They’ve played one team capable of the forward pass, WKU, and they gave up 477 yards and 35 points. Wake has scored 35 in every game this year, but the pace will be slower, so it’s possible they don’t get there, even though I like the matchup. Wake hasn’t been great under Clawson off bye weeks, so, perhaps I’m stepping into one here. Will closely monitor live lines. I took Wake -3. I’ll go Wake 30-24.
Tennessee @ Alabama (-25/67)
UT 4-3. W 38-6 BGSU – 476-219 (5.4-3.6), L 41-34 Pitt – 374-397 (5.7-4.8), W Tenn Tech 56-0 – 417-179 (5.3-2.8), L 14-38 @ UF – 423-505 (6.2-7.4), W 62-24 @ Missouri – 683-396 (8.8-5.4), W 45-20 USCe – 472-370 (6.6-4.9), L 26-31 Ole Miss – 467-510 (5.9-5.0)
Bama 6-1. W Miami 44-13 – 501-266 (6.5-4.3), W Mercer 48-14 – 424-216 (6.5-4.0), W @ Florida 31-29 – 331-439 (5.3-6.2), W 63-13 USM – 606-213 (10.3-3.7), W 42-21 Ole Miss – 451-291 (5.9-4.6), L 38-41 @ aTm – 522-379 (6.4-6.5), W 49-9 @ Miss State – 543-299 (7.9-4.0)
Tennessee off a bonkers game and loss to Ole Miss at home, 31-26. I won’t get into all of the shenanigans at the end of that game, but despite being outplayed most of the game, the advanced stats thought favorably of their performance and they had a hail mary go through their WRs hands that would have won them the game. The big news to note here was the injury to QB Hendon Hooker at the end of the game. It appeared to be a knee injury, and I believe he will miss this game and we will see Joe Milton. Bama was focused and ready for Leach’s air-raid again this year and but a 49-9 beatdown on them. Rogers mainly dinked and dunked but hit a couple of big pass plays late in the first half the buoyed the numbers. Bama’s offense made quick work of State, and that was the most impressive aspect of this game. I spent most of Monday afternoon texting with friends about my perceived belief that Alabama QB Bryce Young was dealing with a shoulder injury. I was racking my brain trying to remember when it may have happened. Turned out I wasted a lot of thought on that, as it was Alabama DL Byron Young that was injured. Bryce looks good to go, Byron not so much. I continue to be impressed by what Heupel is doing with this roster. Even in their 21 point loss to UF, they were in the game, but unlucky victims of a wonky score. Now that Milton is back in (we think), things get dicey again. I don’t need to rehash my thoughts on him in detail, but they are not favorable. He will likely have a very hard time against a complex defense. I bet UT +27 in the lookahead lines and felt great about it, until Hooker’s injury. My early line was right around 17.5/18, so I thought I had a dandy. Now, I’m not so sure. I may do fine against the market as I believe most models will agree this line is inflated, but after watching Milton with my eyes for years… I also took Under 67.5, because of the struggles that I think Milton could have as a passer. It would behoove UT to try to run the ball for as long and much as possible. How long will it be possible? I don’t know. Bama struggled with UF who deployed a strong ground game and mobile QB and they did really well against Miami and Ole Miss, who aren’t the same by any means, but we can glean some nuggets from those contests. Pace will be the issue with an under in a UT game, but the game script and Bama plan could help to slow the train some. Bama’s pass defense has been better than their rush defense, which is where the Vols will prod. UT doesn’t have any glaring issues on defense. They aren’t great, but if they can finally force some offenses off the field on third down, they can be even better. That has been a problem area. It probably won’t start this week as Bama is one of the top in the nation at converting them. Overall, I don’t have a great feel for this game. I could have been fine just laying off entirely, but I’m willing to gamble a little bit. Bama has won 14 in a row in this series. 31, 22, 37 are the margins of victory for Bama for the last three. That number surely would have been lower with Hooker in the game, but now we have Milton. I’ll speak it into existence here: Bama wins 43-20.
Fun facts about the last time UT beat Bama: There was no iPhone. There was no Instagram, and MySpace was still the preferred social media outlet. “Hannah Montana” debuted on The Disney Channel, where star Miley Cyrus was just 14-years-old. Bobby Bowden was at FSU, Pete Carroll was at USC and Joe Paterno was at Penn State. “Hips Don’t Lie” and “Sexy Back” were No. 1 hits.
USCe @ aTm (-21/45)
SC 4-3. W EIU 46-0 – 439-109 (5.9-2.5), W ECU 20-17 – 323-263 (5.1-4.2), L UGA 40-13 – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), L UK 10-16 – 216-332 (4.2-5.0), W 23-14 Troy – 357-303 (5.9-4.4), L 20-45 @ UT – 370-472 (4.9-6.6), W Vandy 21-20 – 434-312 (6.5-5.2)
aTm 5-2. W Kent State 41-10 – 595-336 (7.8-4.5), W @ Col 10-7 – 288-260 (4.2-4.1), W New Mex 34-0 (6.4-2.1), L 10-20 Arky (N-Dallas) 272-443 (4.6-6.5), L 22-26 Miss State – 297-438 (5.7-5.8), W 41-38 Bama – 379-522 (6.5-6.4), W 35-14 @ Missouri 432-328 (6.4-4.5)
South Carolina nearly had the embarrassing loss of the year to Vanderbilt and their backup QB last week. They narrowly escaped 21-20. SC QB Luke Doty reinjured his foot and they brought their coach, Zeb Noland, into the game. He won the game for them on a pass at the death. SC was -2 in TO, but they had more yards and nearly more two yards of YPP. South Carolina’s offense is not good and they play a pretty good defense. I don’t know who will be under center, but I tend to think Noland may be the better option in this one. They can’t run a lick and Doty’s passing has been erratic, while his mobility hasn’t played the role as a rusher as many expected. South Carolina has a good defense despite not getting opponents off the field on third downs. They do tend to turn opponents over a lot and they get after the QB with one of the nation’s best pass rushers. The Aggies followed up on their win over Bama and beat Missouri 34-14. They covered the number with two scores to spare, but it wasn’t as resounding as the raw numbers showed. They torched Missouri on the ground, which was to be expected. The Aggies jumped up 21-0 early in the game after picking off Bazelak twice. Missouri had a ton of penalties in the game and they simply couldn’t overcome the deficit. They didn’t run the ball well at all and couldn’t stop it. That’s a recipe for a three-score loss. aTm didn’t throw the ball well at all, which is to be expected, unless they are playing Alabama, of course. I’m disinterested in laying three scores in this game in what comprises nearly half of the total. I lean to the under as well, but it’s low enough that I don’t want to mess with it. If forced to choose, I would play SC and the under, but I haven’t and I won’t. aTm has never lost to SC. 7-0 all time. 48-3 and 30-6 over the last two years. 28-10 Aggies.
Miss St @ Vandy (+21/51)
Miss St 3-3. W 35-34 La Tech – 435-369 (6.6-6.0), W 24-10 NC State – 316-335 (4.9-4.4), L 29-31 @ Memphis – 469-246 (5.7-4.6), L 25-28 LSU – 486-343 (5.5-6.4), W 26-22 @ aTm – 438-297 (5.8-5.7), L 9-49 Bama – 299-543 (4.0-7.9)
Vandy 2-4. L 3-23 ETSU – 321-314 (4.3-5.3), W 24-21 @ Col State – 342-445 (4.3-6.3), L 23-41 Stanford – 398-442 (4.7-7.5), L 0-62 UGA – 77-532 (1.7-7.0), W 30-28 UConn – 439-523 (6.0-6.5), L 0-42 @ UF – 287-479 (3.6-7.7), L 20-21 @ USCe – 312-434 (5.2-6.5)
Miss State is off drubbing against Bama. They played three consecutive games decided by four points or less prior to that. Their defense was exposed by Bama. They couldn’t generate enough big plays against a fast and athletic secondary to compete for four quarters. Will Rogers could barely move his arm in the first half, but for some reason, Mike Leach left him in the game for 60 minutes when the game was already decided. Rogers now has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder. I’m not sure what his status will be in this game. They have a talented TrFR backup and a South Alabama transfer. I don’t know how well either of them will run things relative to Rogers. I think we have to assume it will be a downgrade, but I don’t know for certain. Vandy went with Mike Wright at QB last week after Ken Seals was ruled out by injury. Wright is athletic and can add a different element to this offense than Seals. They hit some big plays in the passing game but they only threw it 21 times. Vandy’s ground game did nothing, which was to be expected against a better in-conference foe. Vandy doesn’t do anything particularly well. They’ve been outscored in SEC play on average 125-20 in three SEC games. They didn’t score against Georgia nor Florida (no issue here although the UF score was very deceiving), so all twenty came last week against SC. Objectively, I think the line is too high. This is not a bet where you have the warm and fuzzies, backing a poor team like Vandy, but we’ve at least seen some signs of life and State isn’t a team that has shown they are just going to blow the doors off teams, beating La Tech by 1 as 3-TD favorites at home. I took Vandy +21 and I’m hoping we get an effort comparable to last week for both teams. State wins 31-17.
LSU @ Ole Miss (-9.5/76)
LSU 4-3. L 27-38 @ UCLA – 379-470 (5.3-7.5), W 37-7 McNeese – 306-142 (4.2-2.3), W 49-21 CMU – 484-284 (7.7-4.1), W 28-25 @ Miss St – 343-486 (6.4-5.5), L 19-24 Auburn – 358-453 (5.0-5.9), L 21-42 @ UK – 408-475 (5.6-7.7), W Florida 49-42 – 455-488 (6.6-6.5)
OM 5-1. 43-24 Ville (N-Atlanta) – 569-355 (7.8-4.6), W 54-17 Austin Peay – 630-374 (7.7-4.6), W 61-21 Tulane – 707-305 (7.5-5.4), L 21-42 @ Bama – 291-451 (4.6-5.9), W 52-51 Arkansas – 676-611 (8.7-7.3), W 31-26 @ UT – 510-467 (5.0-5.9)
LSU shocked me last week. I suspected that they would get buried by Florida and Coach O would be fired this week. Well, I was half right. Coach O was fired, probably more for off-field issues than on-field, as they played fairly well two weeks ago and really well last week. The biggest change has been that they went from a bottom ten rush offense to college football to the second coming of the Fournette days. TDP ran for 36-287-3. He had 140 rushing yards through the first five games combined. He’s had 434 over the past two weeks. LSU went away from the pass-happy approach last week, only attempting 24 passes. Prior to that, they’d thrown the ball 35-times or more in four games. My belief is that they will get back to the ground game here against Ole Miss, for multiple reasons. First, it’s working. Second, it keeps the Ole Miss offense off of the field. Third, LSU lost Boutte and now they don’t have an experienced or as talented of a pass-catching unit. Fourth, Ole Miss will likely keep six DBs on the field for much of the game, which invites the run and deters the pass. The clock should stay running when LSU has the ball, assuming the philosophical shift holds. LSU’s defense remains the issue. I don’t have many positives to say about them. However, they may have found a lucky horseshoe this week as Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is considered questionable to doubtful. He ran the ball 30 times last week and Kiffin indicated he’s not doing well this week in his recovery. That’s to be expected after shouldering that type of load in the middle of the SEC grind. Whether or not Corral plays, I believe the Ole Miss offense won’t be at full strength this week. That’s a bummer, for many reasons. I bet Ole Miss -10.5 in the lookahead lines last week. I then came back and took LSU +10.5 and I zeroed that position out. I speculatively took the under 76 when I read the news about Corral. I don’t love it, but I think the confluence of factors with LSU shifting more ground heavy and the potential absence or limitation of Corral was enough for me to get in the mix. If we assume Corral plays, I doubt they are going to ask him to run the ball as they normally do and they are likely to rely on the ground game to keep him from getting accosted for four quarters. If Corral sits, I believe the passing offense and offense, in general, would take a big hit. He’s the best QB in college football and his backups don’t have much experience. If Corral was full strength, I would have likely left the entire game alone. I’m trying to find an exploit edges in this racket, particularly in week eight when the more obvious ones have dried up. This is another game that I’ll be monitoring close to game time and I’ll look to see game flow in an attempt to find some edges in the live market. It’s possible that a slow start could open up the window for a significant middle opportunity with an over to pair with the under. If Corral plays and he’s looking recovered, I may look to abandon ship. We shouldn’t see as much pace as last week’s Ole Miss game, which ended with 57 total points. I’m fine with my current under position, given the available info. How does LSU play with the lamest of lame-duck coaches with O fired but finishing year? LSU has won the last five in this series. 53-48, 58-37, 45-16 over the last three. I’ll roll with Ole Miss 38-31.
USC @ Notre Dame (-7/57.5)
USC 3-3. W 30-7 USC – 416-375 (5.9-5.8), L 28-42 Stanford – 408-375 (5.4-7.1), W 45-14 @ Wash St – 447-279 (6.1-4.4), L 27-45 Oregon State 431-535 (6.1-7.6), W 37-14 @ Colorado – 494-242 (7.7-4.3), L 26-42 Utah – 493-486 (6.3-7.7)
ND 6-1. W 41-38 @ FSU – 431-442 (6.2-6.0). W 32-29 Toledo – 449-353 (6.0-5.6), W Purdue 27-13 343-348 (5.2-4.4), W 41-13 Wisky (N- Chicago) – 242-314 (3.5-4.6), L 13-24 Cincinnati – 341-386 (4.6-6.2), W 32-29 @ VT – 401-321 (5.8-4.5)
I’m gonna be short on this one. These two teams are pure insanity. Rarely do either of their games make much sense. So, I didn’t bet it, right? RIGHT? Afraid I did. I took ND -3.5 and -5 in the lookahead market last week. I didn’t intend to take them, but I expected this line to open at least a TD, so I took some stabs. This should be Notre Dame’s easiest game for their offense since they played Toledo. They’ve had a tough schedule the past several weeks and things should be easier for them this week. The Irish are tough to run on and they aren’t a significant threat to do tons of damage on the ground with their offense. USC has played some miserable rush offenses this season, so it’s hard to gauge their quality. The only team that could run a lick was Oregon State, and they ran for 324 yards on them. By no means am I indicating that ND should be considered a good rush offense or in their class, but I think they could have some more room than normal to operate. The more that I’ve gotten into this, the less excited I’ve felt about my ND positions, but I think that SC has shown they will fold against legit opposition while ND has been in and won wars. I ended up adding some +7 on ND, primarily to zero out the position size and the -5. I wish I had jumped on the total open at 54, but didn’t have it fully fleshed out. Gonna try to scoop ‘em all, 33-27 Irish.
No extra plays this week. Took a couple of others, Coastal Carolina/App State Under 62.5 and Illinois/Penn State Under 49.5 but both have moved past key numbers and out of key range where I would feel comfortable recommending them.
