FSU @ UNC (-17.5/64.5) FSU 1-4. L 38-41 ND – 442-431 (6.0-6.2), L 17-20 Jacksonville State – 335-350 (4.7-4.5), L 35-14 @ Wake -317-484 (6.2-5.4), L 23-31 – 453-395 (6.0-4.9), W 33-30 Cuse – 378-389 (5.5-6.2) Another odd Nole game once you get into the numbers. They wisely went with Travis at QB once he was healthy and got first win of the season. Offense and defense were both erratic this game. Went through stretches of good ball on both sides. FSU is a run team. If they can run the ball and stop it, they can hang. Struggled B2B weeks with dual-threat QB. Appear to be much better stopping teams with traditional run games. UNC 3-2. L 17-10 @ VT – 354-296 (5.6-4.8), W Ga St 59-17 – 607-271 (8.5-3.6), W UVA 59-39 – 699-574 (10.3-7.3), L 22-45 @ GT – 369-394 (5.0-6.4), W 38-7 Duke – 456-314 (6.5-5.0). UNC is another erratic team. Struggled on offense with some of the better def fronts they’ve faced. I think FSU qualifies as a good front. However, Crazy Legs Howell is still running the ball a bunch. He ran 13 times last game but failed to get what was becoming his usual 100+ yards, held to 29. While I have some doubts about UNC’s ability to effectively run the ball against FSU, I do think they have a distinct advantage with their WRs, mainly Downs, against an FSU secondary that has struggled against some of the better WRs they’ve faced. We are still a bit early in the week to start relying on weather forecasts, but this region has been tracking for moisture and probability increasing by the day. I think if the weather were to hit here, it could set things up for an under, given the potential limitations. In a vacuum, I think the numbers support an under and I went ahead and took Under 64/64.5. If the moisture negates UNC’s biggest edge in the passing game against the Nole secondary and FSU just throws screen and runs the ball anyway, I think it aids things enough for Noles to keep this within the number and lower scoring than it could be. Teams rarely run tempo in inclement weather, so chance we could see more methodical paces, which wasn’t a huge concern to begin with. 35-21 Heels.
Wake @ Cuse (+6/57.5) Wake 5-0. W 42-0 ODU – 352-272 (5.0-3.5) , W 41-16 Norfolk – 413-336 (6.9-4.8), W 35-14 FSU – 484-317 (5.4-6.2), W 37-17 @ UVA – 473-506 (6.4-5.9), W 37-34 Ville – 501-522 (6.0-7.5). Wake had a dogfight with Ville last week. They really struggled with Cunningham at QB. He accounted for 350+ yards and 4 TD. They didn’t do a great job against the traditional run game either as two backs combined for 28-150. Hartman played well enough, he hit some big throws but only completed 58% of passes. Wake tried to run a ton, but didn’t do it effectively, 44-177-2, including 10-35-1 for Hartman who had a huge fantasy day. Ville muffed a punt end 1H which gave Wake an easy three but also benefited from a pick mid 4Q which set them up for easy 3 as well. Game was tied 34-34 late, Wake got ball and had a rare explosive run (long of 15 on day) and hit the game winning FG with under :30 to play. Wake ran 84 plays to Ville’s 70 and that was the difference in the game. Gritty win by Wake, but I’m unconvinced they are the better club. Cuse 3-2. W 29-9 Ohio (383-346, 6.2-5.5), 17-7 L to Rutgers (258-195, 4.2-2.7), 62-24 win over Albany (623-135, 9.4-2.5), W 24-21 Liberty – 305-369 (4.5-6.0), L 30-33 @ FSU – 389-378 (6.2-5.5). Mentioned previously but Darth Shrader had huge day on ground. 16-137-3 and a ho-hum passing day with 13-23-150-1-1. You’ll take that type of passing day from him, because that’s a perfect reflection of who he is as a passer, if you can get that type of rushing game from him, which is also who he is. Tucker was generally bottled up, 24-102-0 but Shrader picked up the slack. I’m sure they will take that type of rushing output every game, regardless of who does it. FSU just throws a bunch of screens on offense and has a lack of playmakers outside, and Cuse did good job with them. Travis had a big day on ground at QB with 19-113. I thought Cuse actually played pretty well on defense. They were 2/12 on third down and that was the difference in game. This was actually a 3-0 FSU lead mid 2Q. Two quick TDs and FSU lead 9-6. Shrader scored from like 50 yards out on a non-designed QB run. Couple back and forth and it was 16-13 at half after 3 points through first 22 minutes. FSU led 23-13 late 3Q and they made a goal-line stand on what would have been Shrader’s 4th rushing TD of day. Both QBs were incredible running the ball, and most of the huge plays seemed to come on non-designed runs. FSU had the ball last and won in the end. This line opened +11 at Circa and I knew it was bad as soon as I saw it, but I tried to maintain more discipline this week on games that I hadn’t fully worked, which were very few. Here we are down nearly a full TD and I’m frustrated with myself. I think Wake is the better football team, but I also think Wake isn’t a great football team, by any stretch of the imagination. I think some of the struggles we saw last week with Cunningham could manifest in this game with Shrader. Ville doesn’t have an alpha at WR but they are immeasurably more talented than Cuse’s ragtag bunch, especially now that Harris is in the portal. Cuse won two of last three but Wake won 38-14 LY. Cuse’s defense has been pretty good and I don’t think anything Wake is going to present is going to deeply trouble them. Through 5 games, I’m not sure any team has faced a worse group of WRs than Cuse, so I do think some of the individual and collective pass-catching skill of Wake could present some issues, or it’s at least an unknown how a relatively new Cuse secondary will match up with them. I think Wake likely wins this game. No issue with them being favored but I missed the honey hole opener. I just typed a whole lot to say, I don’t know what happens. I suppose Wake wins 30-27. If Wake were to take more money here and get Cuse back up over a TD, I’d consider them. I abstained last week on Ville in a similar situation and I regret it.
GT @ Duke (+3.5/60.5) GT 2-3. L 21-22 NIU – 429-301 (5.5-5.1), W 45-17 Kenny St – 412-272 (7.0-4.3), L 14-8 @ Clem – 309-284 (4.3-4.3), W 45-22 UNC – 394-369 (6.4-5.0), L 21-52 Pitt – 432-580 (6.8-7.4). GT roller coaster continues. The Jeff Sims experience – get ya popcorn ready. In this one, he accounted for nearly 400 yards. He also threw picks on their first two drives, one for a TD. FR WR Nate McCollum is a stud, he was open for a long TD but missed and then smoked a Pitt DB and scored on poss #3. Addison had a huge drive to cap a TD and 21-7 Pitt lead. Pitt offense continued dominating and ran a 42-14 lead late 1H. Jahmyr Gibbs was assaulted in the running game, finishing with 10 carries for -10 yards, but they had a nice screen play to him late 1H in which he nearly scored. GT then stopped on downs on 4 yard line to end 1H. GT had a FG blocked 2H. It was 49-21 start 4Q and just garbage time junk from there. Pitt kneeled out ball on 1 yard line in an attempt to purchase the affection and a proper handshake after the game, of which he received his spoils. The GT defense had done some good things the two weeks prior but was absolute piss in this game. A DL that had caused havoc did very little and the GT secondary had no answer for really anything Pitt tried. Conversely, GT still doesn’t know how to finish drives properly and left a bundle out on the field. They didn’t get many chances to prove it, but I still think speed at WR or in open space could really bother Pitt this year, as we’ve seen in the past. However, Pitt still hasn’t really seen that after the cakewalk start. Duke 3-2. L 28-31 @ Charlotte – 580-478 (7.9-6.8), W 45-17 NC AT – 433-264 (6.1-3.8), W 30-23 NW – 558-407 (5.7-5.7), W 52-33 Kansas 607-530 (7.5-7.4), L 7-38 @ UNC – 314-456 (5.0-6.5). In 1Q v UNC, Durant had about a 50 yard run and Chandler scored on a 75 yard wheel route (I think) but there weren’t tons of fireworks. UNC scored on a QB strip when Duke was driving. Both OLs really struggled protecting QBs through first half. Chandler had a nice run, Howell as well, that capped a TD drive and UNC 21-0 lead. Downs played well in 1H but didn’t help Howell at all on a would be TD and UNC led 24-0 at half. UNC DL dominated. Durant had like 75 yards on two runs for most of Duke’s yardage but UNC sacked Holmberg 4H first 30 min. Calhoun had great catch and run for Duke on 1st possession oh 2H and scored a long TD on what wasn’t likely to be an explosive play. UNC picked off Holmberg but didn’t pay as the pass rush on both sides remained dominant and they sacked Howell to force punt. More DL domination for rest of 3Q, nice Downs catch, Chandler found edge and scored short-ish TD, 31-7 UNC early 4Q. Downs atoned for his drop 1H and scored another brilliant TD to put bow on a 38-7 win. For me, the OL play was really bad across board for both teams and DL play very good. 10 sacks in game. UNC simply has too many playmakers and when Durant isn’t given license to roam, the margins get thinner for a Duke team that doesn’t have great skill talent. UNC finally played way they are capable of on defense, but OL issues still very evident as they have now tried 3 guys at center to find an answer. Prior to this game, Duke hasn’t handled dual threat QBs very well. They will get the most dynamic one they’ve seen in Sims this game. Duke’s offense hit skids last game while GT’s defense did same. In a vacuum, I think this matchup favors scoring. However, I’ve been watching forecast on this one all week and it could be a wet one. I don’t trust Sims to take care of the ball very much in adverse conditions, but I think the GT ground game should be able to tear through Duke. These two played LY in ATL and GT won 56-33 – 523-382 (7.4-4.4). GT ran for 377 yards. I wanted to bet this game over the total multiple times, but it’s another game in this region where I think moisture could have a significant impact on the outcomes. As such, I’m gonna stay sidelined and see what we get with weather closer to kick and also what the number does.
UVA @ Ville (-2.5/69.5) UVA 3-2. W 43-0 Bill & Mary 545-183 (8.5-3.5), W 42-14 Illinois – 556-337 (7.6-4.7), L 39-59 @ UNC – 574-699 (7.3-10.3), L 17-37 Wake – 506-473 (5.9-6.4) , W 30-28 @ Miami – 449-372 (5.7-5.4) UVA beat a shorthanded Miami last time out. They moved the ball pretty well, which was to be expected, and they got more out of the ground game than what they have for rest of season. More impressive for them in this game, was their defense finally held up a little bit. I think that was probably more a knock on Miami without their QB than a positive for UVA, but it’s debatable. Ville 3-2. L 43-24 Ole Miss (N) 355-569 (7.8-4.6), W 30-3 EKU – 441-235 (6.9-4.2), W 42-35 UCF 501-420 (6.6-6.6), W 31-23 @ FSU – 395-453 (4.9-6.0), L 34-37 @ Wake – 522-501 (7.5-6.0). UVA won 31-17 LY and Ville won 28-21 year prior. Ville dominated the game with 478 yards at 8 YPP but somehow onouy scored 17 and lost. I think they are the better team here again. Agreed with the total that this should be a shootout. I just don’t see much chance that either team finds many stops. Ville should be able to achieve more balance on offense with a run game to go with the passing attack. I lean both Ville and over here. Ville is my more serious lean and I decided to add them. 40-34 Ville.
South Carolina @ Tennessee (-10.5/56.5) SC 3-2. W EIU 46-0 – 439-109 (5.9-2.5), W ECU 20-17 – 323-263 (5.1-4.2), L UGA 40-13 – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), L UK 10-16 – 216-332 (4.2-5.0), W 23-14 Troy – 357-303 (5.9-4.4). South Carolina played a drunk game against Troy. I wont get into all the weird stuff that happened, but it was an event. Right result overall. South Carolina started year w the coach at QB and that was awful. They got Doty back against UGA and that didn’t matter as no one is moving it on GA right now. Starting that game, they played the #1, #8, #10 national scoring defenses in a row. They finally get a break against a UT defense that I don’t think is any good. They are average at best and that is gonna feel like a Caribbean vacation for an SC offense that has been stifled by a brutal three game stretch of top defenses. UT 3-2. W 38-6 BGSU – 476-219 (5.4-3.6), L 41-34 Pitt – 374-397 (5.7-4.8), W Tenn Tech 56-0 – 417-179 (5.3-2.8), L 14-38 @ UF – 423-505 (6.2-7.4), W 62-24 @ Missouri – 683-396 (8.8-5.4). Seems UT has finally settled on Hooker at QB and that is paying off. They just got to play the worst SEC defense that I’ve seen, maybe ever, last week and they just embarrassed them in every way. This total has been all over the place. It started up high 50’s and I saw it bet down to 52 where I decided to take the over. I timed that well as that was it’s bottom and now it’s bounced back up, which I think is the appropriate market response. Both teams have their best QB under center now, UT offense been playing really well despite the super deceptive 14 points v UF on 423 yards and 6.2 YPP. SC offense finally has a chance to move the football for first time in a month and while Doty’s ceiling as a passer is TBD, his rushing abilities are high, and we just saw Florida’s Emory Jones run for 144 yards on 15 carries, and also compete nearly 80% of his passes, which is astonishing considering his limitations. Maybw this goes the way of most other USCe games and becomes a slog, but I’m betting they get to come out of the shell a bit with major class relief on offense and as two score dogs, they will have to move with a bit of urgency and engage the passing attack instead of wasting downs and effort with an ineffective rush offense. I’m not sure I would go over at current with my own money, but think it still prob wins. We got 58 points out these two last year and they were two of the worst offenses in the conf and both staffs got canned. 35-24 Vols.
UGA @ Auburn (+15/47) UGA 5-0. 10-3 Clem (N-Charlotte), 256-180 (4.2-3.0), W 56-7 UAB 539-174 (9.0-3.3), W 40-13 USCe – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), W 62-0 @ Vandy – 532-77 (seventy-seven) (7.0-1.7), W 37-0 Arky – 345-162 (5.1-3.6). Dawgs off another anaconda choke. Deceptive scoreline as they scored 21 points in 1Q based on junk. They just totally demoralized the Arky team in all facets. They shut down their offense in full and that just decided to pound the pig down their throat, despite their limitations with Bennett at QB. He didn’t need to do anything. 112 snaps in this game, total dream game for Kirby, one he will tell his grandkids about some day. Aub 4-1. W 60-10 Akron – 613-188 (10.4-3.0), W 62-0 Alabama St – 538-176 (9.3-3.0), L 20-28 @ Penn State – 367-396 (4.6-6.0), W 34-24 Georgia State – 419-384 (5.4-5.4), W 24-19 @ LSU – 453-358 (5.9-5.0). I’ve watched just about every game of Bo Nix’s career in college and this was the best game he’s ever played. It’s not replicable ever again, and especially not against a UGA defense that will knock his blinking block off if he tries to run around like a maniac to avoid pressure. I’m told it will likely be Bennett at QB against Aub here as JTD continue to deal with a muscle injury. This game is known as the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. These two have met 125 times. It’s almost always a low scoring game and I think this year will be no different. The strength of the Auburn team is their rush defense and that is what they will need to defend against UGA. The passing attack is very little threat and I don’t have much confidence in UGA QB nor pass catchers to have success. UGA defense hasn’t shown any holes yet and I don’t think they are going to be troubled by Aub offense. I tried betting Under 48.5 at open, it was the first game I attempted to bet but got stuck with U46.5. That’s a critical 2 points. Some bozos keep betting the over here and it turns out I’m gonna be able to improve my position on the under. I like the under at pretty much any number they have out there. Strength on strength here, big boy football, 26-13 Dawgs.
LSU @ UK (-3.5/50.5) LSU 3-2. L 27-38 @ UCLA – 379-470 (5.3-7.5), W 37-7 McNeese – 306-142 (4.2-2.3), W 49-21 CMU – 484-284 (7.7-4.1), W 28-25 @ Miss St – 343-486 (6.4-5.5), L 19-24 Auburn – 358-453 (5.0-5.9). LSU off disappointing home loss against Auburn. Nothing too shocking in this game. The difference in the game was that LSU was getting significant pressure but they couldn’t take Nix down and he made a handful of otherworldly plays that was the diff in the game. Without those two or three plays, LSU prob wins this one without too much discomfort. I thought the LSU rush defense held up well against Aub traditional run game. Nix had a few scrambles that skew the stats, they shut down Tank, and Hunter had a 44 yard run on a trick play, but hardly much else. Aub just came up big on several key 3rd and 4th downs. LSU OL stinks and they had a hard time with a very good Auburn front. LSU running the ball is never an option in any game, they finished with 26 carries for 11 yards. Boutte was their saving grace. He had 3 catches for 99 yards (don’t ask about this drive) on the Tigahs opening TD drive. Much as has been the case, he then ghosted for rest of game, finishing with just 3-28 the other 11 drives for LSU. I don’t understand their lack of usage of him, at all. He should have a dozen catches per game. Anyway, Auburn found magic and they won in Red Stick for first time since 1999. UK 5-0. W 45-10 ULM – 564-87 (8.4-1.4), W 35-28 Missouri – 511-398 (7.3-5.2), W 28-23 UTC – 356-339 (5.7-5.4), W 16-10 @ USCe – 332-216 (5.0-4.2), W 20-13 UF – 224-382 (4.8-5.4). Terrible read by me taking over in this game. It was the nuts under. Played like an NFL game. UF unlucky to lose. They stifled the UK offense. UF was kicking a FG to go up 13-7 mid 3Q but UK blocked it and returned for TD. UK picked of EJ in 4Q and C-ROD cashed in a rushing TD on a very short field to give UK the 20-10 lead mid 4Q. UF had a fourth and goal with 20 seconds to play and UK DB broke it up for the huge, rare win for UK in this series. The UK offense was awful in this game. They had a well designed screen play to Robinson thrown at LOS and he did the rest scoring from about 40 yards out as he is a real menace in open field. Levis continues his poor run of play after showing some flashes early on. He wasn’t decisive enough as a passer and has really settled into what many perceived him to be as he enrolled at UK, and athletic game manager. UK only ran 47 plays and that was because Levis couldn’t get the sticks moved on 3rd or 4th down, as they finished 1/10. You look at the true peer games for UK in the past two, the first three were pretty much throwaways due to competition, and UK has scored 16 and 20 points on 332 and 224 yards at 5.0 and 4.7 YPP. If the backs aren’t ripping off huge runs or if WaRo isn’t hitting a home run, this is kinda the same old Kentucky offense with more window dressing. Fortunately, their defense has played excellent complimentary football and they are one of the fun stories of the first half of the season at 5-0. UK has only played one team capable of passing, Missouri, and their defense didn’t hold up as well in that game. Unlike Missouri, who sorely lacks pass catching skill, that is something that LSU has, athletes. Worth monitoring this situation as the week progresses, but both Boutte and Palmer missed practice on Tuesday. No reason given, as far as what I can see. I think this game has potential to be another grinder, similar to what both teams played in last week. I was tempted to play IK when it opened under 3 and I also was tempted to play Under 52 when it got there. WR Josh Ali will miss this game for UK and LSU is one of the few teams in the SEC that has the personnel to handle Robinson 1v1. They prob wont even have to attempt to handle him 1v1 either. You just structure your defense to make anybody other than him beat you in the pass game. Theyve got talented young guys, but none proven. You sell out to stop him here, I think that will be the clear plan for them on defense and if Levus’ first read isn’t there, their talented pass rush should be able to get to his blindside as UF did several times. C-ROD and Smoke could present similar issues that Charb and Brown did for UCLA in the opener, if UK just wants to go even ground heavier and keep LSU off the field. They have opted for ball control on several occasions, as teams only averaging 65 off plays against them. They arent hogging the ball though, they only avg 62 off ppg, they are a slow paced team. LSU’s lack of ability to run at all has meant their defense has to spend more time on field than they would like. Stingley is out and should be for rest of season before he goes to NFL. I think the Cats win something like 24-21 but I’ve kinda got a funny feeling we see an inspired game from LSU when everyone is counting them out for rest of season. I think UK is living on borrowed time, but not sure LSU is one for the expose, that may be Georgia’s job next week.
North Texas @ Missouri (-19/69) In 2020, North Texas had the most embarrassing rush defense I’d ever seen at the FBS level. In 2021, Missouri may not be on NT’s level in 2020, but they are surely the worst rush defense Ive ever seen in the SEC. They just fired their DL coach. Will that matter? I don’t know. The DC hire was a disaster and he’s gone soon. I’m not going to talk about this game much. I haven’t seen a snap of North Texas this year and I typically don’t do well in games that are decided how huge favorites manage their personnel at end of the contest. It SHOULD be that type of game, but who knows? North Texas is really bad in every area. Missouri has to win this game if they want any hope at bowl game. Don’t know, don’t care. 45-23 Missouri.
Vanderbilt @ Florida (-38.5/60) 49-10 Gators.
Alabama @ aTm (+17.5/51.5) Bama 5-0. W Miami 44-13 – 501-266 (6.5-4.3), W Mercer 48-14 – 424-216 (6.5-4.0), W @ Florida 31-29 – 331-439 (5.3-6.2), W 63-13 USM – 606-213 (10.3-3.7), W 42-21 Ole Miss – 451-291 (5.9-4.6). Alabama jumped out to a 1H 28-0 lead on Ole Miss and choked the life out of them for final 2Q. Kiffin got grief for going for it on 4th downs, but I didn’t have any issues with that. His job is to win the game, not cover the spread, though I would have preferred he covered and lost! Bama had two fairly methodical drives in 1H that gave them 14-0 lead. They benefited from two short fields to take the 28-0 lead with scoring drives of 27 and 14 yards. The Bama pass offense struggled against the six DB look that Ole Miss often deployed. Fortunately for the Tide, Young’s pocket awareness and movement was excellent and he was too hard to bring down, eventually guys got open when he had so much time and he delivered some nice improvised throws. The biggest difference between this year and last was that Ole Miss’ defense wasn’t giving away tons of easy yards. They got confused near the goal line on an easy pitch and catch for a TD, but compared to the 2020 game against Bama, it was night and day. Credit to Saban and Bama’s staff for having a great game plan of their own. They played more zone defense and forced Ole Miss to move the ball methodically on them. They couldn’t do it consistently enough and the big plays were limited for the Rebs. Bama’s run blocking sucks this year, but that didn’t stop them from relentlessly bludegeoning the Rebs with B-Rob. He had 36-171-4 rushing. He said after the game this was the most carries he’s had in a game at any level. Unfortunately for Bama, their most talented back McClellan got hurt and will miss season with a knee injury. Robinson is pretty much a zero as a pass catcher, so it takes away that element of multiplicity when he’s on the field. There were very few big plays available for either team in last week’s game. Bama was able to keep the OM offense off the field and just pound, it was what Saban’s team used to do a decade-ish ago and it was a shrewd strategy in this game. If Ole Miss converts any of those fourth downs, the picture changes significantly, but you live by the sword, you die by the sword and Bama’s plan was executed very well on both sides. They gave a nice blueprint for how teams may want to approach playing this electric OM offense and also going after their small lineup on defense. aTm 3-2. W Kent State 41-10 – 595-336 (7.8-4.5), W @ Col 10-7 – 288-260 (4.2-4.1), W New Mex 34-0 (6.4-2.1), L 10-20 Arky (N-Dallas) 272-443 (4.6-6.5), L 22-26 Miss State – 297-438 (5.7-5.8). aTm now on a two game skid. They had the near loss to a terrible Colorado team on the road, both at altitude and with their backup QB, then rolled over a scrub at home, but dropped two games to SEC foes in a row. Their big issues? Their QB stinks. Their OL stinks. Their offense is wildly inconsistent. Fortunately, their defense is very good. If their offense was even average, they would likely look even better, but they can’t quite find a way to play complimentary football yet. Maybe this year will cause Jimbo to join the rest of the world with a progressive offense, but probably not, they keep paying him bunches of money to do something, I’m not sure what though. I think the aTm defense is good enough to keep the Bama offense in check. The Ags have found a way to execute between 1-3 well blocked run plays per game and the Ags backs are talented enough to capitalize on some rare space. Other than that, they will just be running into walls and then watching the punt team come out when the QB gets confused and can’t capitalize. Jimbo ran his mouth at a donor event this summer and I know Saban caught wind of that one. Saban has quite enjoyed smashing Jimbo in recent years. Since the loss to Manziel in 2012, Bama has won this game by 7, 59, 18, 19, 8, 22, 19, 28 (oldest to most recent). I played Bama in the futures market several times on this one throughout the summer and early fall and will be quite happy if Bama can win by 11 or more. They should. If the offense doesn’t turn the ball over, it should be a straightforward game. I think this is a much easier game for the Tide than last week v OM. aTm has scored 10, 10, 22 points against P5 foes this year. 14 points isn’t likely to cut the mustard against a Bama team that has scored 30 points or more for 31 (I think) games in a row. Not much margin on the total or laying the current number with Bama. Suppose I would prefer the under or an aTm TT under, of the options. 34-13 Bama.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-6/67) Hogs 4-1. W Rice 38-17 – 373-308 (5.7-4.2), W Texas 40-21 – 471-256 (7.1-4.0) , W Ga So 45-10 – 633-233 (8.7-3.7), W Texas AM 20-10 (N- Dallas) – 443-272 (6.5-4.6), L 0-37 @ UGA – 162-345 (3.6-5.1). Hogs got a reality check in Athens last week. Just whole diff class of players on each team and that showed up. UGA def was terrible matchup for Hogs offense that is extremely on dimensional. Mentioned last week but KJJ and BURKS both were beat up and it wouldn’t have mattered if they were both fresh, this was an obliteration at the LOS. UGA had great field position because the Hogs could do absolutely nothing, and that allowed the Dogs to go up 21-0 early on about 100 yards of offense, thanks to a blocked punt for TD. UGA just cruised for next 3Q as they were never remotely in jeopardy. Dream start and dream game for a UGA team playing with a limited backup QB. OM 3-1. 43-24 Ville (N-Atlanta) – 569-355 (7.8-4.6), W 54-17 Austin Peay – 630-374 (7.7-4.6), W 61-21 – 707-305 (7.5-5.4), L 21-42 – 291-451 (4.6-5.9). Just touched on the Ole Miss game last week, so will get right into this matchup. The hard part of this handicap is the mental side of things. Arkansas got absolutely humiliated in their game. Was their will broken? I tend to think not, they are more of a blue collar group that takes identity of their head coach and they know they have already outpunched their weight class this year. This is just my anecdotal belief, but I believe that under Kiffin, the Alabama game has taken the top priority spot for Ole Miss ahead of the Egg Bowl. How do they respond after a humbling loss last week? Thos are the unknowns in this game and make things very interesting and kinda hard to figure. There is a chance that one team grossly underperforms and lets last week beat them twice. I think Ole Miss’s offense is far more dynamic and they will enjoy a massive edge in QB play this game, but I also think the Bama win could provide a template for success for the Hogs in this game where they just slow things down and try to pound on an Ole Miss defense that consistently gave way on the ground last week. Does Durkin dare use six DBs again as a base against a team that wants to run it 45 times and pass, maybe 20? How much does Arkansas not wanna throw it? Well, they trailed by 21 in the 1Q last week and decided to throw 16 total passes for the game. It worked the week prior against aTm, they only tried 19 passes there. Fortunately, they got some huge plays and turned 9 completions into 246 yards. The Hogs haven’t attempted 20 passes against a P5 opponent and the game script has mattered. Theyve been blowing a team out, in a tight battle, and getting blown out, but the song has remained the same. This is a team built to run, and I think it’s what they will try to do in this game. Ole Miss has seen several dual threat QBs (I don’t consider Young a real DT, FWIW) and they’ve done a nice job with them. On defense, the Hogs will try to do some similar things to what Bama did. Play zone, stop the run, and force OM to beat them with big YAC explosives in passing game or just dink and dunk down field for 10+ play drives and earn every yard. That has worked to perfection before they met a UGA OL that decided they weren’t playing games and just bullied and beat them down. I don’t think that is what OM will attempt, nor should they. I do think that Arkansas will attempt to grind the pace of this game to a hault and we will again see an OM game that doesn’t quite have the same pace that we usually see in their games. It very well could turn into a track meet, these teams have provided some wild ones over the years, but the wilderness has rarely included 70+ point games. Hogs won this one 33-21 last year after benefiting from 6 Corral INTs. The year before, OM won 31-17. There were an absurd 173 snaps in this game LY, but neither offense was very good – 442-394 (4.9-4.8) in favor of Rebs, but they couldn’t overcome the seven turnovers. I took Under 71.5 on this one at open. This only matters if you are trying to confirm you biases, which I am, but these two have played 67 times in past 113 years and only four times has there been 72 scored. Prob doesn’t matter, but if you bet the under and you’re at a bar, will give you some street cred with the other patrons if you drop that little nugget. I’ll go Ole Miss 35-27.
ND @ VT (+1/47) ND 4-1. W 41-38 @ FSU – 431-442 (6.2-6.0). W 32-29 Toledo – 449-353 (6.0-5.6), W Purdue 27-13 343-348 (5.2-4.4), W 41-13 Wisky (N- Chicago) – 242-314 (3.5-4.6), L 13-24 – 341-386 (4.6-6.2). If you backed Cincinnati and Under last week, you’re welcome. It took me laying off both to balance the scales and get you the hard earned win. Now that order has been restored and I’ve returned to my rightful place as the expert on all things Irish, I’ve made my long- awaited return to the octagon for this thriller. VT 3-1. W 17-10 UNC – 296-354 (4.8-5.6), W 35-14 MTSU – 383 -349 (5.7-4.6), L 21-27 @ WVU 329-373 (4.5-6.2), W 21-10 Richmond -318-237 (5.1-4.0). VT off bye week and Irish playing their sixth straight game. Injuries starting to take their toll on Irish, and rightfully so. Their OL is down to a foreign exchange student who once played a rugby match in Dublin with the lads who I believe will play tackle for them in this one. Theiur best player, TE Michael Mayer has a bad groin but he’s tough as nails and gonna try to gut it out. As someone whose dealt with groin issues, it’s no joy to try to play through. ND has used three QBs, none of them good, and now they will likely settle on Pyne, as the presumed QB1, for this game at least. Tough first start, if that’s the way it goes. Night game in Lane Stadium. It certainly made an impact when Heisman hopeful Sam Howell was in Blackburg and he was sacked six times and his team held to 10 points. This Irish OL is a mash unit and the worst that Ive personally ever seen fielded by a Notre Dame team in my adult life. The count stands at 22 sacks allowed through five games. They should reach last year’s 12 game total of 25 by the end of this game. So, we’ve presumably got a green QB that has zero threat of a running game, the best TE in the country hobbled, and a raucous crowd to deal with. Fortunately for the Irish, the major defensive lapses have been minimized of late, and VT’s offense stinks. They have a very good athlete playing QB and that can create some conflict for defenders, but they don’t do anything particularly well. They have a good offensive line but they don’t do anything particularly well. These two met in 2019 and ND won 21-20 in South Bend. I suspect it will be that type of game again. In fact, that being the final score wouldn’t surprise me at all. It seems very reasonable. I took VT +4.5 in the futures market, for two reasons. One, this is going to be an NFL type of game and IF ND deserves to be the favorite, it shouldn’t be by more than 2.5. Secondly, I figured VT is likely to close the slight favorite and knew +4.5 wasn’t likely going to be consistent with market at any point. So far, so good. I actually thought an opening total of 44.5 was better than where market has moved it, up to 47. I could get behind an under bet at 47 or better here. Prob wouldn’t break the bank with it, but I may add a bit there myself.
That will conclude the weekly program. I wanted to pilot this all-inclusive article drop to see if it’s easier to read (duh) and if the trade-off from that but waiting until a little later in the week still pays dividends. We shall see, let me know what you think? Hope everyone has a fun and profitable weekend – GL!
