Week 5 is here! I broke down some of the top games and how the two teams match up against each other from a numbers perspective.
Some terms that you will need to be familiar with while reading this.
Havoc: The percentage of plays in which a defense either recorded a tackle for loss, forced a fumble, or defensed a pass (intercepted or broken up). If QB hurries were a reliable stat (at the college level, there is far too much inconsistency in how they are recorded), they would be included here, too.
In the team stat profiles, Havoc Rate is both presented as an overall measure and broken out into unit-specific defensive line, linebacker, and defensive back measures. – Via FootballStudyHall.com
Stuff Rate: percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage. – Via FootballOutsiders.com
Explosive Play: Pass or run of over 20 yards. Explosive rate is the percentage of pass or run plays that are over 20+ yards.
Havoc rates and Explosive Plays rates I’ve calculated myself. Stuff rates and offensive/defensive line stats are via FootballOutsiders.com
Kansas State At Oklahoma State (-4)
When Kansas State has the ball:
Kansas State rides one of the nation’s most explosive passing games in the nation. They have the 10th-highest rated explosive passing game in the country while Oklahoma State’s defense has just been 65th-best at defending the explosive pass play. The Kansas State passing game is only 126th in adjusted passing yards per game, but they have had a knack for hitting 20+ yard pass plays. K-State brings a significant edge in rushing. The Wildcats have the 30th-best rushing attack in adjusted yards per game while the Cowboys have allowed 75th most adjusted rushing yards per game. Kansas State brings in the 10th-best rated offensive line unit against Oklahoma State’s 94th rated defensive line. Look for the Wildcats to have the chance to dominate the Cowboys rush defense on Saturday night.
When Oklahoma State has the ball:
Oklahoma State has had one of the best rushing games through the early part of the season. They rank 4th in adjusted yards per game and 8th in adjusted rush yards per attempt. The Wildcats rank 23rd and 36th in those respective categories on defense. They have been vulnerable to big rushing plays, they are the 85th-best team at defending explosive rush plays while Oklahoma State sits as the 17th most explosive rushing attack. Just like the Wildcats’ offense, the Cowboys’ offensive line has a significant advantage over the defensive line. The Cowboys boast the 28th-rated offensive line as a unit to the 94th-rated defensive line of the Wildcats. Chuba Hubbard appears to have another ideal matchup to rack up big yards.
Ohio State (-17.5) At Nebraska
When Ohio State has the ball:
The Buckeyes have had one of the dangerous and explosive offenses in the country. Ohio State is top six in adjusted points per game, points per play, points per possession, and yards per game. All while the Cornhuskers’ defense fails to rank in the top 50 of any of those categories. In terms of explosive plays, explosive rushes, and explosives passing plays, Nebraska’s defense matchups equally to Ohio State’s offense. Justin Fields leads a top-five passing game against Nebraska’s 75th ranked passing defense. One edge Nebraska does have is causing havoc play. They enter the weekend with the 4th-best havoc play rate. Ohio State has had some trouble fending off havoc plays while ranking at 55th stopping them. Nebraska has a tiny edge along the lines. They have the 24th-best defensive line to the Buckeyes’ 32nd-rated offensive line.
When Nebraska has the ball:
Ohio State currently has a significant edge over Nebraska’s offense. Ohio State brings a suffocating defensive front into Lincoln. They boast the number 1 havoc rate and stuff rate in the country along with grading out as the top defensive line in the country. While the Cornhuskers have struggled mightily in each of those categories. Defending against havoc plays and stuffs, Nebraska ranks outside of the top 115 in both. While having the 106th-rated offensive line to begin the season. Nebraska has the 109th-best offense in adjusted yards per possession while Ohio State has the 7th-best defense. The only slight edge Nebraska brings into the matchup is in explosive plays. Overall they ranked 13th in explosive plays while explosive rushing comes in at 35th and 7th in passing. Ohio State slightly lags behind coming in 27th, 48th, and 30th. Nebraska might be able to hit a few plays when they aren’t overwhelmed by the Buckeyes front.
Washington State At Utah (-5.5)
When Washington State has the ball:
The Cougars come into Utah leading the nation in adjusted passing yards per game and rank 37th in adjusted yards per pass. Utah is currently giving up the 76th best-adjusted yards per throw. Washington State has a significant edge in the passing game. Utah is coming off a game where they allowed USC’s third-string QB to light them up. Anthony Gordon and his receivers look to be in for a big night. Utah is the 38th-best team in adjusted rushing yards per game while the Cougars come in as the 125th-best offense. The Utes have been the 24th-best team at defending explosive rushing plays. Utah comes in with the 21st-best havoc rate, but Washington State is the 7th-best at protecting against havoc. The lines in this matchup are pretty close. The Cougars have the 2nd-rated line to Utah’s 15th-ranked defensive line.
When Utah has the ball:
This is a pretty equal matchup when Utah has the ball. Utah has struggled to pass the ball while Washington State has struggled to defend against passing attacks. The Cougars come in with the 79th-rated defense against explosive plays, but Utah’s offense only ranks 49th at creating explosive plays. Utah does a significant edge along the front. They have the 15th-rated offensive line to Washington State’s 109th-rated defensive line. The absence of Zack Moss will affect the Utes’ rush game. They failed to finish numerous drives in the end zone against USC after he left the game. The Cougars have struggled when it comes to causing havoc plays and stuff plays. They rank 91st in havoc rate and 119th in stuff rate. Utah has done a great job of stopping havoc plays they come in 8th and 51st at defending against stuff plays.
USC At Washington (-10)
When USC has the ball:
When the Trojans’ offense takes the field against the Huskies’ defense, it matches up well. Does Matt Fink keep his hot hand that he had in relief against Utah? USC comes into the game with the 15th-rated adjusted passing yards per attempt against Washington’s 42nd-rated defense in the same category. The Trojans bring in the 6th-ranked adjusted passing yards per game to the game. Washington has done quite well against the pass this season. They have allowed the 21st-fewest adjusted passing yards per game. USC’s rush offense has been lacking through the early part of the season. They come into Washington 105th in adjusted rushing yards per game and 102nd adjusted yards per rush. The Huskies haven’t exactly stopped the run yet this season. They come in 90th and 92th in the same categories. USC holds a very slight edge against the Huskies’ defensive line. They have the 75th-rated offensive line unit to Washington’s 76th-ranked defensive line.
When Washington has the ball:
Washington looks to have a significant advantage over the Trojans’ defensive unit. The edge in adjusted points per play, points per possession, and yards per possession all sit with Washington. They rank 21st or better in all three areas while USC’s defense is 75th or much worse in all three. The Huskies have the advantage in all three explosive play categories (overall, passing, and rushing) by a significant margin. Look for Jacob Eason and the Huskies offense to be able to pull off big chunk plays on the Trojans. The biggest edge in this side of the ball comes to Washington’s offensive line. They have been excellent at avoiding stuff plays. Washington ranks as the 18th-best team at stopping stuff plays while USC is 117th at causing stuff plays. Overall, Washington’s offensive line unit comes in at 13th overall and USC limps into the game with the 105th defensive line unit. Look for the Huskies to be able to run at will against USC. Washington’s offensive line ranks 12th at opportunity rate while USC’s defensive line comes in 116th. Opportunity Rate: The percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak. – Footballoutsiders.com
