FRIDAY:
WKU @ UTSA (+1.5/72)
WKU had a play-in game last week at Marshall to decide who would represent their side in the title game. WKU won the game 53-21. Marshall held a 14-0 lead through the first 1.5 quarters of the game. WKU answered with two field goals and trailed 14-6 at the half. Those six points were followed by 30 more unanswered and WKU held a 36-14 edge early in the fourth quarter. WKU scored a TD on a pick-six and they also returned an onside kick for a TD. WKU outgained Marshall 485-325 (5.9-4.1), were +2 in TO, and perhaps most importantly, Marshall’s QB Grant Wells was injured with 10 minutes to go 2Q and did not return to the game. When Wells was healthy, Marshall ran 32 plays for 159 yards (5.0 YPP) and held a 14-3 edge. He was KO’d on a sack-fumble and WKU took over at midfield, which resulted in a short drive and made FG.
UTSA had already locked up a home game for the CUSA title last week. They were undefeated and listed as a 10-point favorite on the road against an improved North Texas team that had to win to make a bowl; they fell 45-23 on a wet afternoon in Denton. The Road Runners fumbled three times in the first half and North Texas converted those into 21-points. North Texas led 31-13 at half. However, North Texas ran 40 plays for 221 yards (5.5 YPP) and had TD drives of 26, 15, and 25 yards. UTSA ran 37 plays for 220 yards (5.9 YPP) but their fumbles and need to settle for FGS had them at a 31-13 disadvantage. UTSA’s first three second half drives resulted in a total of 10 plays for -18 yards and three punts. Two of their final three possessions of the game were positive, but once this game was pretty much decided, they seemed to sorta shut things down in the second half and actually had four of their six drives result in negative yardage. NT had a 456-366 yardage edge (5.9-5.9) and North Texas was +1 in TO, but they converted the three first half fumbles into three touchdowns. UTSA started to work in the backups late in the game in order to stay healthy for the game that really mattered, but it wasn’t a great game in terms of maintaining their momentum of an undefeated season and they were also gashed on the ground for 340 yards.
These two teams met once already this season. UTSA won 52-46 on the road. WKU had a 670-564 (7.5-7.4) yardage edge. Both teams turned the ball over twice, time of possession was the same, and there was an extremely high 165-plays run in the game. It was 14-10 UTSA after 1Q. WKU had some nice returns on special teams and UTSA scored on a trick play in the red zone. UTSA led 28-24 at half. UTSA muffed a punt which gave WKU a short field and Corley scored a receiving TD after a Dwyer like play where everyone thought he was down but kept his balance and scored. UTSA had a 45-43 edge middle 4Q. WKU trailed 52-46 with a third and goal from the 15 and UTSA made a nice diving interception to ice the game with under a minute to play and WKU trying to score the go-ahead TD. UTSA QB Frank Harris hit tons of huge plays and threw for 349 yards and 6 TD and he also caught another passing TD. Zappe threw the ball 60 times and finished 38-60-523-5-1. Sincere McCormick ran 23 times for 120 yards and Jerreth Sterns finished with 16-195-2 receiving. What’s remarkable about WKU’s turnaround is that the loss dropped them to 1-4 on the season. UTSA went to 6-0. This was a turning point in the season for WKU. They rattled off seven straight wins. All seven wins during WKU’s streak have been by at least 15 points, with the average margin of victory at 26 points (45-19). The Hilltopper defense did not allow an opponent to score over 21 points during the stretch, while the offense topped 50 points in back-to-back games to finish the regular season. They held five of their seven opponents to under 350-yards. On paper, the WKU passing attack has a significant edge against the UTSA secondary. In their first meeting, there was a combination of savvy throws and catches but UTSA also had several coverage busts with guys running wide open. Teams have elected to challenge WKU through the air and their raw pass defense numbers are worse than their per-play and adjusted numbers, but that is how UTSA torched them in the first contest. UTSA’s average score since the WKU game is 36-22. While UTSA was undefeated prior to last week, they haven’t been playing as well down the stretch as WKU. They’ve failed to exceed 375 yards of offense in their past three games and they’ve given up 450+ twice and allowed two opponents to score 31+. This is a difficult game for me to handicap. I went into it assuming that I would lean towards UTSA, but the more that I look at it, the more I find myself believing in the nation’s best passing attack in WKU. This will be played indoors at the AlamoDome, so the passing attack should travel well. UTSA is undefeated at home and this is the biggest game in program history. I generally agree with the side and total in this one, indicating another close, shoot-out. While WKU has held their last seven opponents to 21-points or less, that’s not going to happen in this game. Six of their seven opponents in this run have been trash and the only good team they played lost their QB after 20 minutes of game play. I wouldn’t be surprised by either team winning, the only outcome that would surprise me would be a low scoring game. That doesn’t mean that it’s a lock to go over the total, but this has all of the elements for another fun shootout. I’ll go with WKU 41-38.
Oregon v Utah (N- LAS VEGAS -2.5/59.5)
Sometimes, Vegas can be windy this time of year, or in general, but the forecast looks like beautiful football weather with no rain or wind forecasted as of my writing this.
Oregon just won the Civil War against Oregon State 38-29. They had a 506-393 yardage edge (7.3-6.6) and were +1 in TO. The game really came down to moving the sticks. Oregon was an incredible 11-14 (79%) on their third and fourth down conversions. Oregon is typically outstanding in that category, as they rank second nationally in third down conversion% at 54%. Travis Dye converted a fourth down in the red zone on Oregon’s first possession and scored a TD on the play as he found a crease with the loaded box. Late in 1Q, they had a third and three at midfield and Anthony Brown rolled right and hit a 50-yard TD to take a 14-0 lead. Oregon held a 17-3 lead with under a minute to play in 1H and Brown scrambled for a TD to take a 24-3 lead into half. OSU was disjointed for the entire 1H on both sides of the ball. They had to open up the passing game in the second half after Nolan was held to 77 passing yards in the first half and their usual brutish ground game wasn’t firing. They had a nice drive to open the 2H and they scored on a fourth down of their own. It was 24-9 Oregon with twelve minutes to play 4Q before Brown hit a nice RPO down the middle for a short passing TD and the Ducks took a 31-9 lead. Oregon State got their best drive of the game and marched down the field and cut the lead to 31-15 with just under 10 minutes to play. They recovered a surprise onside kick after that and scored a TD to cut it to 31-21 mid 4Q. It was the passing attack that really got OSU back into this game. The theme of the day continued with Oregon converting all of their third downs and they put together a beautiful drive that resulted in a TD to take the 38-21 lead with 3 minutes to play. OSU scored a TD in garbage time to cover the lookahead number for me but likely infuriated most bettors that made a pretty nice bet on the under in this one, sending it over the total of 61 but still keeping it under the circa opener of 68.5. Oregon is the better football team overall and they played a better game, thanks to their ability to move the sticks and Oregon State staying a bit conservative on offense in the 1H. Oregon was balanced in the game while the Ducks shut down the Beavs high octane ground game.
Utah beat Colorado 28-13 in a meaningless game as the Utes already locked up their spot in the title game. They did cash my Over 8.5 ticket, Utah +650 to win P12 South, keep my Utah +1800 P12 future alive, and their defense did so well they helped me win a CFF ship with their 20 point fantasy output. So, a HUGE THANKS, Utes! Not much to talk about with this game. This is a veteran team that is well coached and they were facing off against a terrible CU team. The Buffs only gained 148 yards at 2.7 YPP and the Utes just casually threw up 28 at 6.5 YPP. Utah didn’t get any style points, but they didn’t need to, and after a sleepy start in a lame duck game, they won by a couple of TDs.
We just got to see the Ducks and Utes play a couple of weeks ago. I also laid -2.5 with the Utes in that game, as I did in this one. The Utes cruised to a 38-7 win and effectively knocked the Ducks out of the CFP picture. I want to take a sentence to thank them on behalf of all college football fans. The score was more lopsided than it should have been, but it was still a dominant performance that anyone saw if you watched the game. They only outgained them 386-294 (5.7-5.1). The Utes did to the Ducks what the Ducks just did to the Beavs. They dominated on third and fourth down. Utah was 11/14 (79%) and Oregon was 6/16 (38%). While that was very uncharacteristic of the Ducks offense that ranks second nationally on third down, the Utes only allow 38% conversions, so it was exactly as they’ve done on average, but it was abnormal for the Ducks. The biggest takeaway from that game was that Anthony Brown remains a below-average QB when he plays a capable defense. That is rare in the P12, but Utah is one of those teams and it’s been a pattern for Brown since he was at BC. He’s a potentially dynamic dual-threat that can cause stress, he’s just inconsistent and nothing special. The best QB on the field in this game will be Cam Rising. He’s actually a really underrated player and I honestly have no idea why the Utah staff couldn’t recognize he was the best option over the summer. Utah is the better team in every phase. They have the better rush offense, pass offense, rush defense, pass defense, more disciplined, and better coach. Neither team are great on special teams. Utah doesn’t turn the ball over a ton on offense but their defense doesn’t force many turnovers either. Oregon is far more reliant on winning the turnover battle. Both QBs have escability, but Rising is a better QB and has plenty of mobility. Oregon is one of the most penalized teams in the nation while Utah is amongst the best. I understand that it’s difficult to beat a team twice in the same season and this game isn’t being played at Rice-Eccles, but I just can’t get behind this game being a toss-up after seeing Utah systematically breakdown the Ducks two weeks ago. In addition to the big 18/1 future that I essentially have on Utah ML, I couldn’t resist one more lick of the tootsie pop. I also took Under 60.5. This should be a methodically paced game. Their last meeting only had 126 snaps. That is Utah’s aim in most games. I don’t think there should be a total in the 60’s, even with two talented offenses, especially when we just saw them combine for 45. Oregon’s weakness is their secondary, but it’s less about lack of ability and more that teams prefer to attack them via air, so the poor numbers are more volume related than anything on a per-play or opponent adjusted basis. I like seeing Oregon OC Joe Mo being linked to other jobs now, which could be a distraction. I like the Utes to bring home the bacon in something like a 30-23 victory.
Saturday:
Baylor v Oklahoma State (N- ARLINGTON -5.5/46.5)
Two weeks ago, Baylor and Kansas State each knocked one another’s QBs out of the game. Baylor lost Bohanon early in the second half and Blake Shapen filled in for him. He did an admirable job, both as a runner and as a passer. His number was called again last week against Texas Tech, and while I didn’t see any of the game, he seems like he did pretty well again. He was certainly better than most team’s backups would be in most situations. Baylor had a 434-386 yardage edge (5.2-7.4) in the game where Baylor dominated TOP, but Texas Tech hit a bunch of explosive plays. By my rudimentary count, TT hit 5 plays of 20+ yards and Baylor hit 2. It looks like Texas Tech was running a bunch of jet sweeps and such and I don’t remember them doing that very often this year and it likely caught Baylor off guard. TT’s RBs and QB accounted for 24 carries for 73 yards and no touchdowns. Baylor’s rushing attack was stifled at 3.6 YPC, but they hit a 61 yard go route to their RB where the DB fell down and they scored. Texas Tech missed a FG as time expired, or this game woulda gone to OT and we woulda seen Bedlam Redux.
Most of us saw Bedlam 1 this weekend. What a game! WHAT A GAME! The first sixteen minutes were nutty. Oklahoma State had one long, legit TD drive. They got a great special teams return which set them up with a short field and they punched in another. Oklahoma had a nice play call and Oklahoma State busted a coverage and an H-Back picked up something like 50-yards. They cashed in a TD. Their second drive, Oklahoma State got all over Caleb Williams and both he and Austin Stogner made a great play that resulted in a TD. That play prob ends as an INT or sack as often as it does 6, but they made the play. It was 14-14 start of 2Q and Oklahoma State got another huge kick return, this time it went for about 100-yards and a TD. I’ll call him by name, because his time in the spotlight isn’t over – Brennan Presley. 21-14 Pokes. Oklahoma threw a rare ball to RB Kennedy Brooks where he made a man miss and picked up chunk. Then, they ran a nice RPO to Stogner again and he was running free down seam. Oklahoma picked up about 50 yards on two simple plays. OK State buckled down in red zone, 21-17. OK State had a nice drive which ended in a short FG – 24-17 mid 2Q. OK State forced a punt and then the 2019 version of Spencer Sanders showed up and threw a terrible pick which gave the Sooners the ball very deep in Poke territory. Another random Oklahoma WR Mossed an Ok State DB on a goal line fade and it’s tied at 24 at the half. I’ll share a brief aside here. Oklahoma State didn’t appear to be running their characteristic defense for the majority of the first half. They got a bit more exotic than normal and played a bunch of man coverage. That isn’t what they do, and that’s not how you win in the Big 12. The other thing that I saw from Oklahoma that I haven’t seen from them all year is just extraordinary plays from their pass catchers. Linc had some great plays drawn up but they had dudes I’d never heard of playing out of their minds. Second half begins and Oklahoma punts and pins OK St deep. Jaylen Warren gets hit, fumbles, it looks like a Sonner TD but ends up being a safety. 26-24 Sooners. OK state forces another punt and this time Brennan Presley decides to field a punt at his own eight with a guy bearing down on him. He gets drilled, fumbles, and Oklahoma scores a TD. 33-24 early 3Q. Ok State puts together a nice drive and misses a FG. OK has ball back, Williams is hit and fumbles and OK State takes back over. They start at the OK 39, so they are gonna get points. Nope, ball double doinks off defender’s arm, Martin’s facemask, shoots right up in air and Oklahoma picks it off around their own 10-yard line. I had Oklahoma State +1 in the game and I said aloud to myself, “welp, some teams just get all the breaks in these rivalry games. Tough beat, dumb bet to take Gundy in Bedlam.” NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Oklahoma’s DB gets a taunting penalty after the pick. OK offense stalls again and punts from their own 11. OK State gets a bit of Spencer Sanders magic as a runner after Sanders rips off a nasty 37-yard TD scamper. It’s 33-31 Sooners early 4Q. Caleb Williams tries to scramble and then fumbles deep in his own territory and Haselwood blasts the ball with his boot into the stands like the English during PK’s in a World Cup. That’s illegal. Oklahoma punts and then forces another punt. This time it was their special teams disaster as Eric Gray muffed the punt and set up OK State for a 3 play, five-yard TD. They missed the 2XP. 37-33 middle 4Q. The next four possessions there were a combined 20 plays for 50 yards – three punts and a TOD. With 50 seconds left to play, OU took over on their own 20 and needed to go 80-yards to win the game. Caleb Williams took advantage of the OK State prevent defense and ripped off a 56-yard scramble after a bad snap, missed sack, and 7 defenders with their back turned 30+ yards down the field. OK State got them into a 4th and 10 with seconds remaining and sacked Caleb to win the game. BEDLAM. So, of the 70 points scored, the first four were legit drives when both teams were settling in. Then there was a 100-yard KO return, 14 yard TD drive after a pick, a safety, a muffed punt for TD, legit drive TD, 5-yard TD drive after another muffy. There wasn’t quite 800 yards of total offense in the game, but we saw 70 points scored. Each team averaged 5.3 and 5.4 YPP, there were 5 TO’s, and 149 snaps run in the game. Caleb Williams had 204 passing yards in the first half and finished with 252 passing yards once OK State decided to run their normal defense and play coverage.
We get our second rematch of championship weekend. OK State hosted Baylor earlier this year and won 24-14. I took Under 49 on offshore open. If memory serves, their first game opened around 50/51 and closed 47. That game was marked by bad Spencer Sanders, bad Gerry, and good Jaylen Warren. OK State led 7-0 with under a minute to play 1H before Sanders threw one of his only good balls of the half with a deep TD. Sanders threw his third pick of game mid 3Q, but it wasn’t totally his fault as ball got batted up in air and Baylor took over in their territory for second time of the game. OK State held firm again and forced a punt. After both bad TOs, Baylor ran a combined six plays for -11 yards when they were in OK State territory with short fields. Baylor finally ripped a long run on 4th and 2 from minefield. It was a toss play and OK State was sucked down too far and Smith went for 55 to cut the lead to 14-7 with 3 minutes to play 3Q. Sanders answered with another beautiful deep ball on 3rd and 9 from the Baylor 33 that ended in a FG after a nice defensive stand by Baylor. It was 17-7 early 4Q when Bohanon evaded a sack, stepped up, and drilled a beautiful deep ball that ended in a QB sneak to cut the lead to 17-14 with 12 to play. Baylor tried to get too aggressive on 4th and 4 from their own 34 with 8 to play and turned it over on downs. Their defense bailed them out and the two teams exchanged punts before OK State scored on 4th and 2 from inside the Baylor five to make it a 24-14 final. It was a huge nuts call by Gundy not to take the FG and it was either the second or third TD on the day scored on 4th down between both teams. Baylor got to about midfield and he was sacked on 4th down to end the game. OK State had a 401-280 yardage edge (4.9-5.0) but they ran 82 plays to Baylor’s 56. Baylor was 4-18 on 3rd and 4th downs and OK State was 10-21. OK State was -3 in TO. Fast forward to this game, which is played indoors on a fast track and Bohanon may not be able to go. He’s missed the last 1.5 games and is dealing with a hammy. That’s not good for a guy with this game that is extremely athletic and needs to be able to maneuver in the pocket and be used as a runner for this offense to fully-go. Credit to Baylor’s OC (who I critizeid a lot over the years) for saving some clever plays for key plays and games all year long. Many of those plays involved Bohanon using his wheels. He was ineffective as a runner in the first game, and IF he plays, I think we may see more of the same, despite Caleb Williams’ being trumped up after the 56-yard scramble in prevent at the end of Bedlam. In their first game, Baylor had the 55 yard 4th down run and two pass plays of 40 and 44 yards. One of them could have been an interception on a prayer by Bohanon when the DB fell down instead of picked it off. Those three plays accounted for 50% of their total offense on the day. The other 53 plays netted 141 yards (2.7 YPP). Baylor had 9 drives that didn’t end in scores encompassing 5 plays or less. While I spoke highly of Shapen’s relief appearances, I do not think this OK State defense is going to be a walk in the park for them. OK state held four of their last opponents to 17 points or less, one was shutout and two were held to 3. I don’t think Baylor possesses the personnel to do the chuck it up and pray game that Oklahoma had success with last week. I imagine Baylor looks to their TEs a fair bit in this game, but even though Thornton has some impressive stats, he’s just meh. Baylor’s best chance in this game is to really muddy things up and turn this into a rock fight. They have that capability as their secondary is their weak spot on defense and OKState runs super hot and cold in their passing attack. I would actually say OK State’s only weak point on offense or defense is their passing attack. I don’t think Warren will have the type of day on the ground that he did in the first game, and I think it’s reasonable to assume that OK State’s pass rush, often just sending the DL and playing coverage, is going to amount to their typical bushel of sacks, whether against a gimpy Gerry or a green Shapen. I didn’t agree with the Monday money that came in on Baylor, but I did agree with the under money. I prefer the under at my number to laying the points with OK State, but they would be awfully tempting at -3 if there was another Baylor wave. That probably only happens on game day right before kick with a positive Bohanon report. I think the under still cashes at current, but I probably would have passed myself due to my thresholds. If you just wanna have fun with a bet (are unders ever fun though?) then I think that’s the way to go. The battle with the OK State pass rush against the Baylor OL is going to be delightful. Good on good. Pace should be pretty average, perhaps slightly below. 24-17 GUNDY.
Kent State v NIU (N-DETROILET +3/73.5)
I really am not ready to talk about MACtion. After a 2-0 start this weekend, I could taste my pizza, but alas, I’ve failed.
Kent State played a wild game with MOH to clinch their MACCG berth. The game went to OT and MOH went for 2 and the win but Kent State batted it down amidst snow flurries. The only snow they will be seeing in this game will be sold at the entrance to the club level and it will be heavily cut with baking soda. Considering that most of MAC country is covered by ice for approximately 300 days per year, I love that these teams are rewarded by playing indoors in the house of the worst franchise in NFL history. It will be a comfortable 63 degrees in there (no one likes to save money on utility bills more than my wife and Ford-Hamp) and the table is set for the typical MAC shootout. In typical MAC fashion, these games have been lower scoring in recent years than anyone would like. No one watches this for defensive stands, we tune in for mistake-laden 80-yard TDs. I’m hoping for a point total repeat of the last time these two met in 2012, with 81 points scored in double overtime. It could happen. These two met earlier this year and KSU won 52-47. Most people weren’t watching that game live, so it’s easy to be ignorant to the fact that this game actually took 11 hours to complete. There was a scheduling snafu with the facilities crew, the local municipality, and the Kent State athletic department. There is actually a giant septic tank buried three feet below their field that spans some dozen hectares and it was due for service on November 3rd. The crew and the teams shared the space going tit for tat but it led to an abnormally elongated game. That shouldn’t be an issue here (fingers crossed) and I imagine we get this baby done in just under 4 hours.
I think NIU stinks. They can run the football, but they stink at everything else. Fortunately, every defense they play stinks too so they score about 30 ppg. They mailed in their last game and held out Lombardi to get healthy so they could compete in this game. Smart move. The good news is that Kent State’s defense is an abomination and they should do whatever they like. For me, it really would come down to two things:
- Whose offense do I trust most in a shootout? Kent State
- Who do I have a MAC future on at 14/1? Kent State
So, that said, I’m calling for the Kent State MAC title BBY! I have one last chance to earn that McPizza, and I intend to enjoy the fruits of my labor. Kenny wins 52-47 for the second time this year (just don’t actually bet on it, well, props, maybe…)
App State @ ULL (+3/53)
App State just beat Georgia Southern last week 27-3. As is my custom when a team plays an option offense, throw the baby out with the bathwater. A win is a win, but we learn nothing about anything. (I’ll say the same thing next year anytime a team plays a Clay Helton Georgia Southern team. Let me tell ya, Statesboro, GA is gonna feel a bit different than LA. Fortunately for him, LOWER TAXES and he will be able to buy a 25 acre chalet for the price of a studio apartment in LA).
ULL had a rivalry game with ULM. I was gonna play ULM on Sunday or Monday, got a little spooked, and pulled trigger on them at the last minute before kick and it paid off as they lost 21-16 as 21.5 point dogs. ULM had more first downs than ULL, but they were outgained 382-325 (6.2-4.4) and lost the TO battle by 1. Neither team could convert a third down to save their lives. ULL was the better team, but at no point should they have been priced similarly to the way LSU was the week before against ULM.
I think ULL is probably one of the most fraudulent 11-1 teams that I can remember in many years. I’m sure there have been some Notre Dame teams in the past that I’m overlooking, but just think about how the ULL-ULM game went a year ago. ULL won 70-20. Sure, ULM is one of the most improved teams in the country, but despite ULL being on a 16 game conference winning streak, they haven’t impressed me in a single game that I’ve watched of theirs this year. I actually won’t watch this game, for superstition’s sake. Anytime I besmirch the name of ULL QB Levi Lewis AND watch the game, he turns into Kyler Murray. I can sully his name and not watch, and he will remain a less mobile, better game managing Matt Grothe. These two met earlier this year and ULL beat the brakes off App State. I watched that game, unfortunately, so Lewis was ready to make me the fool. We cashed the Under 57 in that one, but it was diceyyy in a 41-13 ULL win in Lafayette. ULL had a 455-211 yardage edge (6.6-3.8) in a game where the Duke version of Chase Brice showed up and App State’s LB’s had an all-time dreadful day at the office. App turned it over 4 times and ULL found a way to play out of body at virtually every offensive position. So, if ULL already beat App by 28, why are they dogs? I would propose two reasons. The first is that it was the best game ULL played all year and the worst that App State played. The second, and one reason why I took App State ML -125 is because I knew Napier was going to be announced at Florida later on Sunday but before it was widely public knowledge. I figured he would either not coach or he would be a lame duck in this one.Turns out, he will be a lame duck and coach this game. As an App State backer, that’s my ideal scenario. He’s on the phone with boosters and croots right now and not prepping for this game. While the stakes weren’t nearly as high, we just saw this situation play out with Skip Holtz last week as a lame duck coach and he got himself beat by Rice University. Sometimes, it works, as it did for LSU and Coach O, so it’s not foolproof, but I think I’m getting a revenge minded team that is fully focused with the better offense and defense. Since the loss to ULL, App State has been dominant. They beat Coastal Carolina by 3 (should have been worse) and then won by 31, 34, 24, 38, and 24 over league foes. ULL has gone the opposite direction. They are winning, but it’s deceptive. They beat Liberty 42-14 which looks great on the surface, but they only outgained them 296-293. ULL isn’t a 40-point offense against anyone but the dregs, but they happened to find magic against App State and Liberty. They are more of a 21 point offense like we saw last week against ULM. Weather looks perfect in Lafayette. I think Josef gets his revenge and wins 28-21 which puts a curdle in the bellies of Gator fans around the nation.
Houston @ Cincinnati (-10.5/53.5)
Houston just played a meaningless game at UConn. They’d already made the conference title game, but I suppose the game did serve one purpose. It gave a team from Houston the chance to play in a cold ball game. Several players acknowledged after the game that they were thankful to get that one under their belts.
Cincinnati beat a spunky ECU team last week 35-13. I had ECU +14 in the game, and I was teetering on the edge of covering for the majority of the game. The ECU offense struggled to move the ball, and their tackles had issues with the pass rush. The other big issue was drops by the ECU pass catchers. I was watching off and on, and it seemed that nearly every drive they had a chance to convert a third down and they had a guy drop a ball. PFF said they only dropped three balls, but that would surprise me. Cinci came up empty on too many possessions, but they also benefited from a blocked FG that they returned for a TD. In the end, it was probably a fair result. Cinci executed and ECU didn’t.
Houston is a well-rounded team. They average 38 ppg on offense and give up 22 ppg on defense. Their rush offense is the most average part of their team. They throw the ball well with a veteran, dual-threat QB. They’ve got an underrated WR group that has a talented TE, alpha WR, and good role players. One thing about Houston, just an observation, is that they score more points than their general per game yardage would typically indicate. I think their defense is actually better than their offense. They don’t have any glaring weak points and they are one of the nation’s best teams in terms of sacking the QB. They rarely turn the ball over on offense and they force plenty on defense. They rank 2nd nationally in turnover margin.
Similar to Houston, Cinci is a well-rounded team. They average 39 ppg on offense and give up 17 ppg on defense. They are again similar to Houston in that their offensive yardage outputs often don’t align with their higher ppg output. They, too, have a veteran, dual-threat QB. Unlike Tune, Ridder is more prone to bad decisions. He runs super hot and cold. It’s one reason why Cinci so regularly plays down to their competition. If they are running good, they can hang with top 10 teams, like beating Notre Dame, but if they are having an off game, they can struggle with teams like Navy and Tulsa. They are solid across the board on offense, but great at nothing. The biggest strength of their team is their pass defense. They have a legit lockdown corner in Sauce-G. It’s worth noting that he injured his ribs late in the ECU game and while he stayed on the field, he was noticeably grimacing. Not sure if it will impact him in this game? He often gets overlooked, but his running mate, Coby Bryant is a heck of a player too. Both of those guys work extensively out of the slot, and Houston’s best WR, Nathaniel Dell splits his time evenly outside and in the slot. I don’t know this to be true, but I’d guess that Holgo gets Dell in the slot to avoid both outside guys. That would be wise.
I took Houston +10.5 and +11 early this week. One thing I goofed on was that I mistakenly thought this game was one of the Friday games. As such, I was looking at the forecast and was thrilled that it was going to be unseasonably warm. I was wrong. The weather doesn’t look terrible. It’s going to be low 50’s or high 40’s with some mild winds. One thing that I like about Houston in this game is their probable ability to frazzle Ridder. He’s thrown at least one pick in five of his last six games, including two last week. Creating turnovers and taking care of the football are two of Houston’s best assets. It’s so rare that Ridder faces a decent defense that I think he could have one of his down games. The two things that concerns me about Houston in the game are 1) The AAC has great financial incentives to see Cinci win this game. If there are any marginal calls, it’s reasonable to assume they go the Bearcats way. 2) Houston’s offense strength is their passing attack, and the Bearcats have one of the best pass defenses in the country. If Houston is down late and needing a backdoor, it’s not going to be super straightforward for them to broach the wall. Overall, I think these two teams are a lot more similar in abilities than the TD/FG+ spread indicates. I think that Cinci does the job, but Houston keeps it within the number, 28-23 Cinci.
Georgia v Alabama (N-ATLANTA +6.5/50.5)
Georgia laid waste to GT last week, 45-0. Nothing to learn.
Alabama played probably their worst football game of the year last week. It was certainly the worst offensive performance that I’ve seen from Bama in the past few years. The defense was very good, but Auburn really had no chance with a gimpy Finley and desire to play Bobo-ball and just run toss sweeps everytime they got in a particular formation. Most saw the Iron Bowl, and I’m tired, so I won’t detail everything in that game, but the play of the offensive line was cause for concern. Bryce Young constantly had a guy bearing down on him, but thankfully, his wizardy in pocket movement and manipulation was such that Bama ended up winning the game 24-22 in that dumb pinball overtime. It’s worth noting that Bama was down their biggest threat on offense, Jameson Williams, for the majority of the game, after he was cited for targeting on special teams. He’s the deep threat that takes the top off of defenses and without him, coupled with the poor OL play, it was a terrible showing. So now they catch a break on the schedule, right? Uh-oh. They get Georgia and their vaunted defense. I’m not here to take anything away from the accolades that this Dawgs defense gets. If Bama’s line plays like they did last week, Georgia wins this by three touchdowns. I’m betting they won’t play that poorly. Saban seems to have a knack for getting the best of his groups that underperform the week prior. He’s a master motivator, and I don’t think he will need to do too many rah-rah speeches to be sure the big uglies have their minds right for this one. This is Georgia, for a trophy, and a chance for a second. It’s worth bringing up that Saban also has a way of beating his former assistants. I’m sure it will be talked about ad nauseum on the broadcast, but he’s 24-1 all-time against them over the past 11 years. He’s gonna have more opportunities in the near future with some recent hires, but this may be his toughest test yet. I don’t think he’s ever been an underdog to one of his assistants. Most times, he’s a sizable favorite and has the better football team. That won’t be the case this year. It’s worth pointing out the obvious, and that is that the SEC East is a dumpster this year, and while Georgia’s defense is obviously elite, they haven’t faced too many capable offenses to date. I know after the Iron Bowl, it will be en vogue to question whether or not Bama’s offense is great. The fcat of the matter is they still average 42 ppg, which ranks second nationally. UGA only averages 39 ppg. The biggest difference is that Alabama allows 20 ppg while UGA allows a measly 7. Tennessee has the best offense that Georgia has faced, and while they were limited to 17, it very easily could/should have been 24+ if not for Hooker’s total malfunction and forgetting how to play football. Sure, credit to Georgia, but that was on him as much or more than it was a feather in UGA’s cap.
Bama is going to need to play one of their best games of the year to win this game. They’ve had Georgia’s number lately. Bama has won the past six in the series, including 41-24 last year in the regular season, 35-28 in the SECCG, and 26-23 in the CFP over the past three. The last time that Georgia won was the OT game in ‘07 when Stafford hit Mikey Henderson in OT. This is Georgia’s best team in that stretch and this isn’t Bama’s. That much is not debatable. I know I’ve given Stetson Bennett some grief, but he’s played great football all year. He is mobile and his downfield passing numbers are better than just about every SEC QB in recent memory other than Mac Jones last year. Yes, his adjusted downfield % is better than Burrow’s in the Heisman and CFP run. Georgia has dealt with a ton of injuries at WR for this whole season, but they are getting healthier and they’ve developed their TEs really well. Brock Bowers runs like a WR, but he’s the size of a TE. He should rip Bama, as nearly every good TE does against Bama, and has for several years. Bama’s DBs are going to get beat a bunch, as is their custom, and they will likely interfere a lot once they realize they are beat. That’s good business. UGA doesn’t have anyone like BURKS, and Auburn has nobody, but this should be a mismatch in favor of the Dawgs. I think UGA will run just okay, but that is the clear strength of the Bama defense and I have little doubt that Saban will make SBIV beat him. Bama shouldn’t even try to run in this game. They will likely be without B-Rob in this game after he suffered a leg injury. Most games, that would sting, and it probably will in pass pro, but running will be a waste of time for Bama in this game. We saw TrFR WR Christian Leary line up at RB several times over the past couple of weeks, but I don’t recall him being thrown to. I think that will change this week. He has elite speed, like Jameo Williams speed, so that could be a wrinkle where Bama finds success. If this can somehow turn into a pure QB-battle, you gotta like Bama’s chances, but it’s a team game and UGA clearly has the better team. I took over 49.5 in this game a couple weeks ago and then took UGA -4 on Saturday when it was left up during the Iron Bowl. I sorta regret taking the -4 because I was doing some housekeeping and realized I had a UGA to win SEC +250 ticket. It’s hard for me to bet against Alabama, especially when I need them to lose to cash, but this is rare air for them. The last time Bama was an underdog was actually against Georgia, they were +1 and rolled the Dawgs 38-10. The last time they were a dog of this size, they lost to Tebow and the Gators 31-20. It may seem crazy to take the over in this game, but the fact of the matter is that Bama has scored 30+ points in 36 of their past 38 games. They don’t need much more than 20 for this game to go over. That isn’t something that any team has done against UGA this year, but again, not exactly a murderer’s row of offense faced. Pace should be pretty slow, but it usually is when these two meet and we had 65 scored last year and 63 in ‘18 when they met on the fast track of the Benz. I’ll begrudgingly call for a 31-23 DAWG win.
Wake v Pitt (N-CHARLOTTE -3/72.5)
I’ll get right to it in this game. Wake always plays in shootouts. Last week was one of the exceptions because Jurkovec still isn’t right and they laid a total turd. Wake defense is bad at all levels. They run a little bit on offense, but that’s window dressing or used to salt a game away for them this year. You don’t bother running on Pitt. It’s a waste of time. You take Pitt via the air, and Wake is plenty capable of that. Pitt runs a little bit, but they really wanna rely on their own veteran QB and elite WR in Jordan Addison. The pace is going to be extraordinarily high in this game, and both matchups favor tons of points being scored. All along, I’ve felt like Wake was fairly fraudulent. Both offenses are very good, but Wake’s defense is just terrible from top to bottom and while Pitt is vulnerable via the pass, more can go wrong for Wake in this game. I took NARD DOG -2.5 and over 71.5. Weather should be fine in an outdoor venue. I like NARDY to take this one 42-35.
Iowa v Michigan (N – INDIANAPOLIS -10.5/43.5)
This is too painful for me to spend much time saying, but a Jim Harbaugh team (AND OFFENSE) is actually pretty good. I tried to take the over 41.5 at open in Vegas but had to settle with a 43. Very few outcomes in this game would really shock me, it’s a Big 10 game where anything goes, but based on the level that Michigan’s offense is playing at and the horrendous slate of offenses that Iowa has seen, I think JIMBO could hang a number on them. I do respect Iowa’s defense on a year-in, year-out basis. I do not respect the general quality of the Big 10 offenses and teams that Iowa has seen this year. Michigan is scoring 37 ppg this year, which is hard to fathom, knowing how bad some of Harbaugh’s groups have been in recent years. These two haven’t met in a couple of years, and that last time was a 10-3 thriller in ‘19. I don’t see it going that way and I think Iowa is going to be forced to come out of their shell a little bit in this game. The pace should be slow, which is indicated in a low 40’s NFL total, but we’ve got an indoor fast track in Indianapolis. That may just seem like word soup, but when I look back at some of these games in recent years, they’ve ended up being higher scoring than they would seem they should be on face value. We’ve been seeing games in rain, wind, and snow in this part of the country for the past few weeks, which leads to diminished scoring, and once we get these teams in a toasty arena, we can often see an uptick in scoring. Last year’s game of death by Justin Fields notwithstanding, we’ve seen a 55, 69, 48, and 69 point games in four of the past five years. Does that matter? Am I grasping at straws? Maybe. I honestly don’t know, but I think Iowa stinks and Michigan should bury them. 34-17 HARBAUGH.
Utah State @ SDSU (-5.5/50)
I have no feel for this game. I didn’t get a chance to see much of the Boise/SDSU game last week but I was pretty shocked that SDSU’s QB1 stunk and then his backup turned out to be Steve Young. I don’t know enough about Brookshire and his quality and it’s still unknown if he will start. I don’t see anything that jumps out to me as particularly off with this side or total. If you are gonna beat SDSU’s defense, you better protect your QB and be sharp in the passing game. On paper, Utah State is built to do that. Well, they are gonna have some passing success, but I’m not convinced they are gonna keep Bonner clean all game. The SDSU DL is pretty impressive and can get home while playing coverage. It’s San Diego, so the weather should be nice. I’m rooting for Utah State in this game as my pal, Josephine Knish has promised me $2,500 of her $25,000 she stands to win with an Aggie trophy. 24-23 LOGAN BAYYYYBEEEEEE
