Ole Miss @ Miss St (THURS — -1/61.5)
OM 9-2. 43-24 Ville (N-Atlanta) – 569-355 (7.8-4.6), W 54-17 Austin Peay – 630-374 (7.7-4.6), W 61-21 Tulane – 707-305 (7.5-5.4), L 21-42 @ Bama – 291-451 (4.6-5.9), W 52-51 Arkansas – 676-611 (8.7-7.3), W 31-26 @ UT – 510-467 (5.0-5.9), W 31-17 LSU – 470-326 (6.4-4.8), L 20-31 @ Auburn – 464-483 (5.7-6.3), W 27-14 Liberty – 466-457 (8.5-5.6), W 29-19 aTm – 504-378 (5.4-5.4), W 31-17 Vandy – 470-454 (7.2-4.9)
Miss St 7-4. W 35-34 La Tech – 435-369 (6.6-6.0), W 24-10 NC State – 316-335 (4.9-4.4), L 29-31 @ Memphis – 469-246 (5.7-4.6), L 25-28 LSU – 486-343 (5.5-6.4), W 26-22 @ aTm – 438-297 (5.8-5.7), L 9-49 Bama – 299-543 (4.0-7.9), W 45-6 Vandy – 522-155 (6.1-3.7), W 31-17 Kentucky – 438-216 (5.9-4.5), L 28-31 @ Arkansas – 486-393 (6.6-5.3), W 43-34 @ Auburn – 487-483 (6.5-6.9), W 55-10 Tenn State – 600-205 (9.8-3.4)
EGG BOWL!!!!!!! Well, we’ve all made another trip around the sun and it’s time for the greatest rivalry in sports. It’s surely the fiercest. This should be a terrific game. Ole Miss just beat Vandy 31-17 as five touchdown favorites. They underwhelmed again after a really impressive win the week prior against aTm. Kiffin was pretty direct after the game, “It was a sandwich game and there are some teams that got upset this season in that situation. We didn’t,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said. “I was a little surprised by how we played, but we came away with the win. It is what it is.” The Rebs led 24-9 at half, but they were held scoreless in the third quarter (something that is becoming a trend) and they lost the second half 8-7. That can likely be explained by having a big lead and having the EGGY-B on deck. One thing that I’ve consistently spoken about over the past month is the health of Corral and the Rebs’ offense. It appears that ICE has pretty much healed up from the ankle injury. We probably won’t see him carry the ball 20+ times in this game, but his mobility is pretty close to back and that opens up this offense. As beautiful as this offense has been, here’s the reality: they haven’t scored more than 31 points since October 9th when they played a wild shootout with the HAWGS. They’ve gone under the total in their last six games. Fortunately for the Rebs, their defense remains one of the most improved groups in the country from last year to this year. Only two of their eleven opponents have had 6 YPP or more against them. They allow 28 PPG to P5 foes. The weakness of the group is the rush defense, but that really won’t be a factor against a Miss St offense that is one of the three worst statistical rush offenses in the country.
Miss State got a layup against Tennessee State last week and they obliterated them 55-10. Nothing to learn from the game other than affirming Leach aint interested in pulling his QB1 whether he’s getting destroyed by Alabama with the game done and dusted or he’s just ripping a poor to shreds with the EB on deck. Similar to Ole Miss in terms of consistency, the Miss State defense has been great all year – save for two games. P5 opponents average 25 PPG against them and while their defense doesn’t have any glaring holes, their rush defense is their talisman. That’s what you want against Ole Miss as they are a rush offense first and foremost and when they can run, this offense gets awfully dangerous with the RPO and quick game they can execute with one of the best QBs in the nation. I think they rate to have success slowing the Rebs’ offense.
One interesting thing about this game is that oftentimes when teams face the OM or MS offenses, they need to get into base defenses that may not be their norm. Ole Miss’ base defense is the air-raid killing drop-8 zone. They don’t have the same personnel, but think back to recent Apple Cups and what Jimmy Lake’s Washington defense used to do Wash State and Leach’s air raid. I’ll give you a quick refresher, here are the points scored for Leach’s offense in that rivalry game, starting with 2012 and finishing in 2019: 31, 17, 13, 10, 17, 14, 15, 13. Leach was 1-7 in Apple Cups with an OT win in his first year in Pullman and seven straight losses. So, how did he fare in his first EGG BOWL? He lost 31-24 last year in Oxford. Both teams moved the ball as well as they liked in that game, but it’s safe to say that the versions of this year’s teams are far different than last year’s, in a multitude of ways. While I have great respect for both of these offenses, I also have a lot of respect for the defenses, namely the way Ole Miss has played for stretches of late and really just how good Miss State has been all year. Leach’s offense don’t rely on deception or complexity, so I don’t know that he necessarily has held any plays back for this game. Lane, on the other hand, has surely got some cards up his sleeve that he’s ready to play. I think back to the nasty play they ran with the little pop pass to Ealy against Louiscille, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that sucker get called again this week. As I say pretty much every week, I bet the under in an Ole Miss game again, and I’m not happy about it, but I just keep cashing these tickets and supplement with TUMS throughout the game. I got Under 63.5 at open, and it’s been bet down from there to 61ish range. Ole Miss will continue to use their frenetic pace as a weapon, but unlike many air raid teams, Miss State grinds things to a halt in terms of pace and they just keep the clock running with short completion after short completion. Miss State will be the slowest paced team the Rebs have seen this year. I brought up that point against Liberty as well, and that worked out well, with 41 total points being scored. Deep down, I wish I liked the over in this game or I just had a strong opinion on a side, but I don’t, so I’ll watch this beautiful, beautiful game with clenched cheeks instead of child-like awe. I trust Kiffin more in the game and think this game probably means more to them (not the fans, but the team) and I think this is probably Corral’s last college game, unless they go to a meaningful bowl, in which case I would probably still advise him to sit, but he’s a spirited competitor and he may through reason out the window. Speaking of spirited competitors, you may remember when Corral engaged in fisticuffs in the end zone with the entirety of the Miss State team. That’s what you get with him, and it’s beautiful. The current forecast in Starkville calls for a slightly chilly night (for Mississippi’s standards) and a 74% chance of rain, albeit it’s supposed to be light. I think if that holds up, it likely hurts Miss State most as they don’t have a running game to hang their hats on. I really want to see Ole Miss win and I want to predict that they will, but I have a weird feeling about this game. It’s rivalry week, EGG BOWL week, so just a reminder that we typically see more chicancery both on a granular level (Elijah Moore whizzing like a dog in the end zone and getting flagged, to name one current event) and on a macro level, this week has wild outcomes, which aren’t particularly conducive to making money, based on my personal history. I’ll still go with my heart and predict a Reb win, but I surely don’t know. I would probably want 61 to go under, if you choose to go that route. 30-27 Rebs.
UNC @ NC State (FRIDAY — -5.5/63)
UNC 6-5. L 10-17 @ VT – 354-296 (5.6-4.8), W Ga St 59-17 – 607-271 (8.5-3.6), W UVA 59-39 – 699-574 (10.3-7.3), L 22-45 @ GT – 369-394 (5.0-6.4), W 38-7 Duke – 456-314 (6.5-5.0), L 25-35 FSU – 432-383 (6.4-7.1), W 45-42 Miami – 382-421 (5.2-5.3), L 34-44 @ Notre Dame – 564-523 (7.7-7.7), W 58-55 Wake – 546-615 (7.0-6.8), L 23-30 @ Pitt – 384-441 (5.4-5.8), W 34-14 Wofford – 519-302 (7.7-5.5)
NC State 8-3. W USF 45-0 – 525-271 (8.0-4.2), L @ Miss St 10-24 – 335-316 (4.4-4.9), W Furman 45-7 – 505-196 (7.4-3.7), W 27-21 (14-14 REG) Clemson (OT) – 386-214 (4.0-4.4), W 34-27 La Tech – 418-480 (6.2-6.1), W 33-7 @ BC – 381-291 (6.6-4.2), L 30-31 @ Miami – 421-420 (6.6-5.9), W 28-13 Ville – 361-434 (6.0-6.2), W 28-14 @ FSU – 400-271 (5.8-3.8), L 42-45 @ Wake – 482-406 (6.3-4.5), W 41-17 Cuse – 399-236 (7.4-4.4)
UNC beat Wofford 34-14 last week. Sam Howell was injured on the final play of the game against Pitt. He was seen in a sling on his non-throwing hand. As a result, he was held out of last week’s game for precautionary reasons, but Mack Brown has stated he believes that Howell will be 100% for this game. This will surely be the final game of Howell’s college career. Unlike Corral, they don’t have a chance of playing in a bowl game of any significance, and given his playstyle as a brutish runner and their often leaky OL, this will be it for him. UNC has an excellent offense and a poor defense. Their average scoring game against P5 foes has been 35-35. They are balanced on offense, but much of their danger as a running unit comes from Howell’s ability and willingness to run. How much will his injury change what he wants to do and how effective will he be? I don’t know. I do know that without him at full strength or if he misses, it’s probably gonna be ugly. They continue to underperform on defense, relative to their talent. They don’t do anything particularly well, but against NC State you want to be solid at the back. Against teams with good passing attacks they’ve allowed 39, 42, 44, 55, and 30 points and those QBs averaged 358 pass yards per game.
NC State played in another game where the scoring makes very little sense relative to the box score. They had 399 yards of offense and scored 41 points in a beatdown of Syracuse. They scored on defense and on special teams in the second quarter. It was actually 0-0 through the first frame. They gave up a 55-yard rushing TD to Sean Tucker and a 48-yard rushing TD to SHRADER, but Cuse did little else on offense. 103 yards came on those two explosive runs and their other 52 offensive snaps gained 133 yards. Cuse has no threat of a passing attack, so while SHRADER can give some indications of how they fare against a QB that likes to run, it’s not apples-to-apples.
I’ve always enjoyed this rivalry. It’s rarely played for high stakes, but it’s good fun. This year, the stakes are higher. UNC has nothing left to play for, aside from the role of spoiler, but NC State can win their division with a win and a Wake loss at BC. By the time this game kicks, they will know if BC has done the deed and if a win gets them to the ACCG. We should see full effort regardless, but it’s just worth noting. Oftentimes when I look at a game, I try to determine, is there a dominant unit? In this game, I would say that NC State likely holds that title, but the UNC offense is no slouch at all. That’s going to be a great matchup. I think the NC State defense will have more success against the UNC offense than UNC’s defense will have against NC State’s offense. NC State is a TD favorite, so nothing too whacky or outta line with that primitive thought train. The thing that would scare me about considering UNC or an Over bet is his health. Again, assuming he plays, it’s pretty easy to envision a scenario in which he doesn’t finish the game. They want to run him 15 times in a normal game, and that may be a big ask with a QB that is nursing some form of upper-body injury. UNC is 2-1 the last three in this series. They won 48-21 due to NC State having four turnovers and the Heels running 22 more plays than them as a result. I was high on NC State coming into the year and took them in the lookahead market +8.5 this summer. That’s 15-points in current line value, which is typically great, but me track record when getting 10+ points CLV is akin to a Macbeth tragedy. I think the numbers are pretty close to on the nose here, I’ll go with the Pack 35-28.
Missouri @ Arkansas (FRIDAY — -14.5/63)
Missouri 6-5. W CMU 34-24 – 468-475 (6.9-5.5), L 28-35 @ UK – 398-511 (5.2-7.3),W SEMO 59-28 – 675-373 (9.4-7.3), L 34-41 @ BC (34-34 Reg – OT) – 391-450 (6.0-5.8), L 24-62 UT – 396-683 (5.4-8.8), W 48-35 N Tex – 474-493 (6.5-6.6), L 14-35 Texas AM – 328-432 (4.5-6.4), 37-28 @ Vandy – 502-380 (7.0-5.8), L 6-43 @ Georgia – 273-505 (4.1-8.0), W 31-28 South Carolina – 438-250 (6.3-3.8), W 24-23 Florida (16-16 OT) – 286-360 (4.6-5.1)
Hogs 7-4. W Rice 38-17 – 373-308 (5.7-4.2), W Texas 40-21 – 471-256 (7.1-4.0) , W Ga So 45-10 – 633-233 (8.7-3.7), W Texas AM 20-10 (N- Dallas) – 443-272 (6.5-4.6), L 0-37 @ UGA – 162-345 (3.6-5.1), L 51-52 @ Ole Miss – 676-611 (7.3-8.7), L 23-38 Auburn – 460-427 (5.2-7.0), W 45-3 ARPB – 504-223 (8.0-3.8), W 31-28 Miss State – 393-486 (5.6-6.6), W 16-13 @ LSU – 283-308 (4.3-3.9), L 35-42 @ Alabama – 468-671 (6.4-8.8)
Missouri just beat Florida and got Dan Mullen fired – LOL. I’m not sure whether it was the game that got him canned or the fact that Drinkwitz trolled him and is now Comic-Con’s most beloved football coach. This was a nasty football game, but it was the type of street fight that Missouri has found themselves involved with in recent weeks. I’ve been very open and honest about how bad Missouri’s rush defense has been this season. They were on a North Texas 2020 trajectory. Well, don’t look now, but this rush defense has come alive over the past three weeks. Here are the three most recent rush defense lines:
Georgia: 32-168 (Avg 202 ypg)
South Carolina: 35-57 (130 ypg)
Florida: 38-93 (215 ypg)
They held those foes to 83%, 44%, and 43% of their per game averages. That’s only 106 rush yards per game allowed over a three game stretch. For perspective, if that was their season average, they would rank 17th nationally. Unfortunately, their offense isn’t playing well, aside from more brilliance by Badie, they don’t have many answers as they are getting poor QB play and they have poor WRs.
Arkansas just played a really fun game against Bama. They hit some huge plays and Bama had some untimely turnovers or the game probably would have been closer to the forecasted 20 point margin. Statistically, Arkansas has one of the best pass defenses in the country. What isn’t accounted for in those raw numbers is their general athletic deficiencies at the back and the fact they haven’t faced many NFL WRs like they just saw from Bama. Bryce Young just broke the school record after passing for 559 yards on 40 attempts. Fortunately for them, Missouri doesn’t have any NFL players on their offense other than RB Tyler Badie.
I don’t think that the current side and total properly reflect the recent improvements in Missouri’s defense. To be honest, I thought we would see major regression last week against Florida and they would get ripped, and we would say that was a 2-game anomaly. Well, now more than 25% of the season, Missouri has been excellent in rush defense, and more importantly, that expresses their current form. They just got to face a dual-threat QB in Emory Jones and held up just fine. It’s not quite the same level of lock of when Alabama plays Arkansas, but Missouri owns Arkansas. Missouri is 9-2 all time against the Hogs, winning the last five. 50-48, 24-14, and 38-0 have been the three most recent scores for the Battle Line trophy. This game will mean a lot to both teams, but they’ve both secured their bowl bids, so it should be a less pressure packed environment for both teams. Kendall Briles may be credited for a great offensive performance against Bama last week, but I thought he was mainly junk. He was running the football consistently down 14 with two minutes to play and needing to go the length of the field and score, then score again. He finally got his head out of his hiney and started just peppering BURKS and he was unguardable. One thing to note is that BURKS played the whole game hurt and he still dominated. I’d guess he spends much of this week in the cold tub and not practicing. I certainly wouldn’t fault him for calling it a year and playing his next game as a millionaire in the NFL. He is tough as nails and loves Arkansas, so I seriously doubt that happens, but it’s an angle that’s worth considering. I took Missouri +15 and Under 63 in this game. Another group of bets that feels dreadful, but I think there is value in both. Arkansas hasn’t beat an SEC foe by 15+ since November of 2016. I think the Hogs get the trophy back in a 31-23 win.
Vandy @ Tennessee (-31.5/62.5)
Vandy 2-9. L 3-23 ETSU – 321-314 (4.3-5.3), W 24-21 @ Col State – 342-445 (4.3-6.3), L 23-41 Stanford – 398-442 (4.7-7.5), L 0-62 UGA – 77-532 (1.7-7.0), W 30-28 UConn – 439-523 (6.0-6.5), L 0-42 @ UF – 287-479 (3.6-7.7), L 20-21 @ USCe – 312-434 (5.2-6.5), L 6-45 Miss State – 155-522 (3.7-6.1), L 28-37 Missouri – 380-502 (5.8-7.0), L 17-34 UK – 266-413 (4.5-7.1), L 17-31 @ Ole Miss – 454-470 (4.9-7.2)
UT 6-5. W 38-6 BGSU – 476-219 (5.4-3.6), L 34-41 Pitt – 374-397 (5.7-4.8), W Tenn Tech 56-0 – 417-179 (5.3-2.8), L 14-38 @ UF – 423-505 (6.2-7.4), W 62-24 @ Missouri – 683-396 (8.8-5.4), W 45-20 USCe – 472-370 (6.6-4.9), L 26-31 Ole Miss – 467-510 (5.9-5.0), L 24-52 @ Alabama – 346-574 (6.4-6.2), L 17-41 UGA – 387-487 (4.6-7.0), W 60-14 USA – 561-285 (7.8-4.1)
I don’t have much interest in this game. This is another huge number for a team to lay in conference and in a rivalry, but Vandy has shown they will lay down and get lambasted by the upper crust of the conference. They fought valiantly last week and this is now their bowl game, but I’m not in a huge rush to take the points. Heupel has a track record of waxing littles since he was at Missouri and UCF. We just saw it last week in a 60-14 throttling of USA, who actually has a really solid defense for a G5. There should be plenty of pace in this game. I would have slight leans to both Vandy and the Over, but I haven’t gotten involved yet. If you’re betting on historical trends, the last time that UT beat Vandy by 32+, you’ve gotta go back to Casey Clausen’s senior year in 2003. Christiano Ronaldo made his debut as an 18-year-old for Manchester United that summer and I wore a full Tarheel blue velour jumpsuit to a Ludacris and David Banner concert. I may consider taking something on this game in the live market if UT scores early to see if I can’t get a full 5-TD on the Dores. We’ll see. 45-20 Vols.
Miami @ Duke (+21/68)
Miami 6-5. L 13-44 Bama (N-Dallas) – 266-501 (4.3-6.5), W 25-23 App State – 375-326 (4.9-4.5), L 17-38 Michigan State – 440-454 (5.2-6.3), W Central Conn St 69-0 – 739-198 (10.6-3.1), L 28-30 UVA – 372-449 (5.4-5.7), L 42-45 @ UNC – 421-382 (5.3-5.2), W 31-30 NC State 420-421 (5.9-6.6), W 38-34 @ Pitt – 490-597 (6.9-7.4), W 33-30 GT – 563-329 (7.4-4.7), L 28-31 @ FSU – 359-434 (5.1-5.9), W 38-26 VT – 411-375 (6.5-5.3)
Duke 3-8. L 28-31 @ Charlotte – 580-478 (7.9-6.8), W 45-17 NC AT – 433-264 (6.1-3.8), W 30-23 NW – 558-407 (5.7-5.7), W 52-33 Kansas 607-530 (7.5-7.4), L 7-38 @ UNC – 314-456 (5.0-6.5), L 27-31 GT – 489-440 (5.4-6.9), L 0-48 @ UVA – 325-528 (4.0-6.7), L 7-45 @ Wake – 315-677 (5.1-8.2), 597-490 (7.4-6.9), L 29-54 @ Pitt – 384-636- (4.4-7.4), L 17-48 @ VT – 343-573 (4.5-8.7), L 22-66 Ville – 458-687 (5.7-11.1)
Some teams are just luckier than others. Case in point, Miami had 411 yards at 6.5 YPP last week and scored 38. Duke had 458 yards at 5.7 YPP and scored 22. That has been the case for Duke all year. They just can’t score despite putting up decent yardage numbers on offense most games. Most of us saw the Duke/Ville game last week and it was one of the most shameful performances on the defensive side of the ball that I’ve ever seen from a P5 outfit. Duke apparently thought Cunningham was a prototypical drop back passer and were shocked to see him run. Cunny accounted for 500+ yards and 7 TD. Duke’s effort was abysmal and it was flat out embarrassing. This will surely be Cutcliffe’s last game as a football coach. They didn;t seem to want to play for him last week, but if he tells them this is it, will they play inspired? Will it matter? Probably not, but stranger things have happened and Miami is very capable of playing an extremely undisciplined ball game and not taking care of business. Diaz may still be coaching for his job and while beating some mathletes by 50 shouldn’t be a factor, recency bias is a hell of a drug and it may help him to buy another year under the promise of a promising young QB in TVD. If TVD throws for 300+ and 3 TDs in this game, it will be his sixth straight, which would tie Joey Burreaux for the FBS record. He would have a chance to be in sole possession of that distinction in the bowl game. This is the secondary to exploit. They are flat out awful. Aside from the final Cutcliffe game angle, the thing that would scare me about considering Miami in this game is they had their best defensive performance of the year last week against a P5 foe, and they held them to 26. Miami still averages a -4 differential against P5 foes, but Duke is at -19. I would lean towards the over in this game as there seems little chance that Duke can get any stops, but this Miami defense stinks too. Should be lotta pace and incentive for late competition on one side and a beatdown on the other. Not sure I want involvement, but I’ll look for some props and re-evaluate later this week. Duke is 2-1 the last three in series (LOL) but Canes won 48-0 last year. 48-27 Canes this year.
Pitt @ Cuse (+13/58)
Pitt 9-2. W 51-7 Umass – 598-209 (7.0-3.6), L 41-44 WMU – 490-517 (8.4-6.0), W 41-34 @ UT – 397-374 (4.8-5.7), W 77-7 New Hamp – 707-160 (8.6-3.0), W 52-21 @ GT – 580-432 (7.4-6.8), L W 28-7 @ VT Pitt 411-224 (5.1-3.7), W Clemson 27-17 – 464-315 (5.7-5.1), L 34-38 Miami – 597-490 (7.4-6.9), W Duke 54-29 – 636-384 (7.4-4.4), W 30-23 (23-23 – OT) UNC – 441-384 (5.8-5.4), W 48-38 UVA – 509-514 (6.4-6.9)
Cuse 5-6. W 29-9 Ohio (383-346, 6.2-5.5), L 7-17 Rutgers (258-195, 4.2-2.7), W 62-24 Albany (623-135, 9.4-2.5), W 24-21 Liberty – 305-369 (4.5-6.0), L 30-33 @ FSU – 389-378 (6.2-5.5), L 37-40 Wake (OT- 34-34 REG) – 514-426 (6.0-6.2), L 14-17 Clemson – 356-314 (5.3-4.3), W 41-36 @ VT – 550-437 (7.0-6.8), W 21-6 BC – 358-251 (5.9-3.5), L 3-41 @ Ville – 184-382 (3.2-7.1), L 17-41 @ NC State – 236-399 (4.4-7.4)
Question 1 of 1: Will Cuse be able to run the ball in this game?
Answer: No
Conclusion: It won’t go well for them
Post-Conclusion question 1 of 1: Wanna lay 11 with NARDY on road?
Answer: No
Slight lean to NARD and UNDER. Pitt will still somehow find a way to give up 20 on defense. No thanks. 35-20 DOG
Wake @ BC (+5/63.5)
Wake 9-2. W 42-0 ODU – 352-272 (5.0-3.5) , W 41-16 Norfolk – 413-336 (6.9-4.8), W 35-14 FSU – 484-317 (5.4-6.2), W 37-17 @ UVA – 473-506 (6.4-5.9), W 37-34 Ville – 501-522 (6.0-7.5), W 40-37 @ Cuse (OT- 34-34 REG) – 426-514 (6.2-6.0), W 70-56 @ Army – 638-595 (12.3-7.2), W 45-7 Duke – 677-315 (8.2-5.1), L 55-58 @ UNC – 615-546 (6.8-7.0), W 45-42 NC St – 406-482 (4.5-6.3), L 27-48 @ Clemson – 406-543 (5.4-7.3)
BC 6-5. W 51-0 Colgate 525-189 (8.1-3.5) WITH JURK*, W 45-28 over UMass 471-335 (7.7-5.7) MOSTLY GROSSEL, W 28-3 over Temple 221-239 (4.6-4.0) NO JURK TEMPLE BACKUP QB*, W 41-34 (34-34 reg) Missouri (OT) – 450-391 (5.8-6.0) GROSSEL, L 13-19 @ Clemson – 357-438 (4.8-6.4), L 7-33 NC State – 291-381 (4.2-6.6), L 14-28 @ Ville – 266-438 (3.9-6.8), L 6-21 @ Cuse – 251-358 (3.5-5.9), W 17-3 VT – 346-235 (5.2-4.6) JURK, W 41-30 @ GT – 505-343 (8.7-5.0) JURK, L 23-26 FSU – 318-365 (4.2-5.6)
Go figure Clemson can’t crack UConn’s defense but then spit roasts 9-1 Wake’s. I think Wake’s defensive inefficiencies are now on full display as they allowed 48 points to Clemson, who scored 57 total points in their first four games against P5 foes. The positive for Wake is that they showed they can score on an elite defense as well. While BC isn’t elite on defense, they are a very good group, and I think it’s reasonable to infer that Wake is going to score on just about anybody right now. Will they score 35 as they are forecasted to do? They average 40 PPG against P5 foes while BC gives up 27. BC’s pass defense is better than their rush defense, which is how you wanna be against Wake.
We now have three games of evidence of how the BC offense will look under Jurkovec since he returned from injury. They were pretty crappy against VT, scoring 17, then they lit up GT in an incredible performance, scoring 41, and then they were held to 3 points through most of three quarters against FSU, finally scoring 23 in a trash effort. I can’t seem to figure when this team will show up and when they won’t. While it’s likely that GT is simply JUST THAT BAD on defense and that’s why BC found life, they get a cozy defense here in Wake’s, which has allowed 58, 42, and 48 points in their last three contests. Toss out Duke in between and Army hung 56 on ‘em.
Wake is fighting for their shot in an ACCG, while BC is fighting to get me a push on their RSW over 7, which is still a tragedy that I won’t win due to Jurk’s injury. I don’t have much of a feel for this game. I have no issue with Wake being a small favorite and this being forecasted as a shootout. That’s typically how Wake games go. They are consistent in playing good offense and bad defense. BC is the X-factor, and one that I prefer not to attempt to try to solve for. Wake is 2-1 the last three, winning 27-24 last time out. I don’t have any feel nor interest in this game, other than rooting for BC to get my money refunded with a 7th win. I’ll type it into existence, though I honestly have no clue. 35-34 BC. Bring out the red bandanas for a third time as a surprise!
Kentucky @ Louisville (-2.5/57)
UK 8-3. W 45-10 ULM – 564-87 (8.4-1.4), W 35-28 Missouri – 511-398 (7.3-5.2), W 28-23 UTC – 356-339 (5.7-5.4), W 16-10 @ USCe – 332-216 (5.0-4.2), W 20-13 UF – 224-382 (4.8-5.4), W 42-21 LSU – 475-408 (7.7-5.6), L 13-30 @ UGA – 243-416 (3.5-8.9), L 17-31 @ Miss St – 216-438 (4.5-5.9), L 42-45 Tennessee – 612-461 (6.2-9.8), W 34-17 @ Vandy – 413-266 (7.1-4.5), W 56-16 NMSU – 707-282 (10.0-4.6)
Ville 7-4. L 24-43 Ole Miss (N) 355-569 (7.8-4.6), W 30-3 EKU – 441-235 (6.9-4.2), W 42-35 UCF 501-420 (6.6-6.6), W 31-23 @ FSU – 395-453 (4.9-6.0), L 34-37 @ Wake – 522-501 (7.5-6.0), L 33-34 UVA – 513-522 (8.4-6.1), W 28-14 BC – 438-266 (6.8-3.9), L 13-28 @ NC State – 434-361 (6.2-6.0), L 24-30 Clemson – 397-345 (5.7-5.1), W 41-3 Cuse – 382-184 (7.1-3.2), W 66-22 @ Duke – 687-458 (11.1-5.7)
UK just honored LYNN BOWDEN before the game and whaddya know, they won 56-16 over powerhouse New Mexico State.
Kentucky has dominated the last two in this series, most recently behind BOWDEN in ‘19 to the tune of 45-13. They won the game prior to that 56-10. They’ve been able to just run down Ville’s throat in recent years, and while I think they will be able to run on them, I think they recognize the best way to carve up Ville is via the air. That is something that UK has shown themselves more capable of this year than in year’s past. Ville has faced a super sorry group of defenses lately and so their numbers look improved, but I’m not buying it. I mentioned it previously, but Duke had nearly 500 yards of offense against them at almost 6 YPP. The only semi-comparable QB that UK has faced in terms of rushing ability was Hendon Hooker. The Vols had a ton of success in that game. Ville won’t utilize tempo as a weapon as the Vols did, but considering how well Cunningham played last game, this is going to be a tough nut to crack because you just can’t simulate him in practices. UK’s rush defense is excellent statistically, but this is a different task. UK has won 14 straight games against non-conference foes, dating back to a bowl loss in 2017. There is going to be plenty of speed from the skill players on both sides of the ball. UK has the edge with the traditional rushing attack and on defense. I took the Cats +3 in this game and also went over 57. I think this game has the potential to be a really exciting back and forth shootout. Both teams have secured bowl bids, so this is a chance to let it all hang out and take some chances to win a game over a rival. I think the Cats get their 15th straight non con win and then win a bowl game, which triggers another two-year extension for Mark Stoops (best contract in football!). Cats get it done, 31-30.
Georgia @ Georgia Tech (+35/54.5)
UGA 11-0. 10-3 Clem (N-Charlotte), 256-180 (4.2-3.0), W 56-7 UAB 539-174 (9.0-3.3), W 40-13 USCe – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), W 62-0 @ Vandy – 532-77 (seventy-seven) (7.0-1.7), W 37-0 Arky – 345-162 (5.1-3.6), W 34-10 @ Aub – 432-318 (6.2-4.4), W 30-13 UK – 416-243 (8.9-3.5), W 31-7 v UF – 354-366 (6.8-4.8), W 43-6 Missouri – 505-273 (8.0-4.1), W 41-17 @ UT – 487-387 (7.0-4.6), W 56-7 Charleston Southern – 483-126 (7.0-1.9)
GT 3-8. L 21-22 NIU – 429-301 (5.5-5.1), W 45-17 Kenny St – 412-272 (7.0-4.3), L 8-14 @ Clem – 309-284 (4.3-4.3), W 45-22 UNC – 394-369 (6.4-5.0), L 21-52 Pitt – 432-580 (6.8-7.4), W 31-27 @ Duke – 440-489 (6.9-5.4), L 40-48 @ UVA – 570-636 (7.3-8.7), L 17-26 – 366-491 (6.5-6.3), L 30-33 @ Miami – 329-563 (4.7-7.4), L 30-41 BC – 343-505 (5.0-8.7), L 0-55 @ ND – 224-514 (3.6-8.7)
Notre Dame just beat ya 55-0. Georgia beats ya 45-7 this week. The Irish leapfrog Dawgs to #1 due to transitive property and get beat by Alabama 42-14 in the semis. Bama loses natty to ECU (transitive leap) because we’ve seen AHLERS in November, but never January, which is when he goes full Super Saiyan.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia (-7.5/62.5)
VT 5-6. W 17-10 UNC – 296-354 (4.8-5.6), W 35-14 MTSU – 383 -349 (5.7-4.6), L 21-27 @ WVU 329-373 (4.5-6.2), W 21-10 Richmond -318-237 (5.1-4.0), L 29-32 Notre Dame – 321-401 (4.5-5.8), L 7-28 Pitt – 224-411 (3.7-5.1), L 36-41 Cuse – 437-550 (6.8-7.0), W 26-17 @ GT – 491-366 (6.3-6.5), L 3-17 @ BC 235-346 (4.6-5.2), W 48-17 Duke – 573-343 (8.7-4.5), L 26-38 @ Miami – 375-411 (5.3-6.5)
UVA 6-5. W 43-0 Bill & Mary 545-183 (8.5-3.5), W 42-14 Illinois – 556-337 (7.6-4.7), L 39-59 @ UNC – 574-699 (7.3-10.3), L 17-37 Wake – 506-473 (5.9-6.4) , W 30-28 @ Miami – 449-372 (5.7-5.4), W 34-33 @ Ville – 522-513 (6.1-8.4), W Duke 48-0 – 528-325 (6.7-4.0), W 48-40 GT- 636-570 (8.7-7.3), L 49-66 @ BYU – 588-734 (9.2-8.8), L 3-28 ND – 278-423 (4.3-6.8) BACKUP QB, L 38-48 @ Pitt – 514-509 (6.9-6.4)
VT has more musical chairs going on at QB. It appears that BB being pulled wasn’t injury related this time, simply poor performance related. He was 14-17 in the first half with 60 rushing yards, but he only had 109-yards on 17 attempts. He fumbled on his first drive of the second half and Connor Blumrick led a TD drive, capped by a 44-yard run. VT did an onside kick and scored to cut the lead to 31-26. Miami was the only team to score in the 4Q. Miami came out of the gates firing, scoring TDs on their first four drives. They had one punt in the first half. VT will need to win this game to make a bowl.
Virginia got great news upon the return of Brennan Armstrong, after he missed the Notre Dame game. He means as much to his team as any QB in the nation and he played great against Pitt. They were carved up, which was to be expected, but they hung 38 on Pitt and may have been considered unlucky to not keep it within one score or win the game as 14-point dogs. Pitt had a 98-yard KO return for a TD by Izzy. They also gave up a cheap 3-points on the next drive due to a big special teams play by 10. Those ten points were ultimately the difference in the football game. Well, UVA got a cheap three as well, but then they also had an interception that Jordan Addison miraculously turned into his third TD of the game.
VT has the better defense in this game, but UVA has the significantly better offense. Fortunately for VT, the strength of their team is their pass defense. That’s their greatest strength on either side of the ball. UVA really hasn’t been slowed by any defense this year, and I don’t think VT is very likely to do the job. The one thing that I’ve learned about this rivalry is that if it can go wrong for UVA, it usually will go wrong. TWERKINS won this game two years ago 39-30 in a heroic effort, but VT is 16-1 the last 17. I don’t have the numbers to support this, but I don’t think UVA has been the favorite in many of those games. The reality is that UVA as a program is on a better trajectory than VT. That could surely change, depending on the new hire, but UVA is stable right now and they have a clear-cut identity. They need to figure out how to play defense and at least get something out of the traditional running game, but they are going to be a handful for any defense to contain through the air. Aside from UVA being snakebit in this series, here are the questions I have about this game that need to be answered: What will VT do at QB? Do they stay with Blumrick and lean on the ground game with the occasional shot play in hopes to keep UVA’s offense off the field? If Blumrick plays, is he ready for this moment? Will the interim head coach be ready for this moment? I have more questions than answers about this game and I’ve followed this rivalry for long enough to know that it’s prob gonna end in heart break if I actually lay a TD and XP with the Hoos. I think they get the job done, but it’s one thing to talk about it, and it’s another to put my money where my mouth is. I’ll go with UVA 35-27. I’ve become somewhat of a UVA fan over the past few years, so here’s to hoping the Commonwealth Cup stays in Charlottesville.
Notre Dame @ Stanford (+19/52.5)
ND 10-1. W 41-38 @ FSU – 431-442 (6.2-6.0). W 32-29 Toledo – 449-353 (6.0-5.6), W Purdue 27-13 343-348 (5.2-4.4), W 41-13 Wisky (N- Chicago) – 242-314 (3.5-4.6), L 13-24 Cincinnati – 341-386 (4.6-6.2), W 32-29 @ VT – 401-321 (5.8-4.5), W 31-16 USC – 383-424 (5.4-6.1), W 44-34 UNC – 523-564 (7.7-7.7), W 34-6 Navy – 430-184 (7.0-3.2), W 28-3 @ UVA 423-278 (6.8-4.3), W 55-0 GT – 514-224 (8.7-3.6)
I’ve watched about ten minutes of Stanford football this year and that was ten minutes too many. I have no idea, nor do I care. ND Should be able to just run it down their throat. Shutter the program. 35-14 Irish.
Alabama @ Auburn (+19.5/55.5)
Bama 10-1. W Miami 44-13 – 501-266 (6.5-4.3), W Mercer 48-14 – 424-216 (6.5-4.0), W 31-29 @ Florida – 331-439 (5.3-6.2), W 63-13 USM – 606-213 (10.3-3.7), W 42-21 Ole Miss – 451-291 (5.9-4.6), L 38-41 @ aTm – 522-379 (6.4-6.5), W 49-9 @ Miss State – 543-299 (7.9-4.0), W 52-24 UT – 574-346 (6.2-6.4), W 20-14 LSU – 308-295 (4.9-4.0), W 59-3 NMSU – 587-138 (7.5-2.4), W 42-35 HAWGS- 671-468 (8.8-6.4)
Aub 6-5. W 60-10 Akron – 613-188 (10.4-3.0), W 62-0 Alabama St – 538-176 (9.3-3.0), L 20-28 @ Penn State – 367-396 (4.6-6.0), W 34-24 Georgia State – 419-384 (5.4-5.4), W 24-19 @ LSU – 453-358 (5.9-5.0), L 10-34 UGA – 318-432 (4.4-6.2), W 38-23 @ Arkansas – 427-460 (7.0-5.2), W 31-20 Ole Miss – 483-464 (6.3-5.7), L 3-20 @ aTm – 226-409 (3.2-6.4), L 34-43 Miss St – 483-487 (6.9-6.5), L 17-21 @ USCe – 379-306 (5.8-5.5)
Auburn lost to South Carolina 21-17. As I mentioned last week, strange happenings during night games in Columbia. The officiating was truly ghastly in that game, and Auburn really didn’t deserve to lose. It’s the same thing they’ve done to teams for years when they play on their accursed ground of Jordan-Hare, so win some, lose some. TJ Finley cut his teeth in the game and he underwhelmed. Their lone bright spots were Jackson at WR and Tank at RB. Tank looked as good as I can remember this year. Auburn took a 14-0 lead and then on 4th and short in their own territory they threw a 15-yard pass for an incompletion LOL. The defense generally held up okay, aside from the cheap 35-yard TD drive they allowed after that abysmal play call. USCe ran for 14 yards in 1Q and 135 after that, mainly due to Zaquandre White making magic. They just didn’t do enough and they just simply aren’t good enough and they lost.
Auburn and Alabama both have good rush defenses. They are vulnerable in the secondary, with Auburn more so than Alabama, but they both are much easier to attack via air. So, in this game, we have TJ Finley throwing to a couple of future rodeo clowns and chiropractors and Bryce Young throwing to NFL WRs. It’s a 10-8 round for Bama, or at least it should be. To make matters worse for Auburn, they were down a couple of guys on the OL last week. I’m not sure of their status this week, but even if they do play, good luck against Will Anderson, fellas! I’m not overly concerned about Tank doing too much damage, I’m sure he will do fine, but they can’t rely on him late in the game, particularly concerning after they’ve been outscored 40-9 in the second half in their past two games. The game script just doesn’t set up well for what Auburn does on either side of the ball this game. I do think Auburn will need to take more chances on offense this week, because their starting kicker is OFY and his backup missed a 25-yard chip shot. FGs likely won’t do anything for them in this game, so, perhaps it’s addition by subtraction. I’m sure when Bryan Harsin opened his desk, he saw a letter from Gus Malzahn, similar to the way that US presidents handle their succession. On it, I’m certain Gus drew some pictures of famous Boise State trick plays that we’ve seen over the years and he likely encouraged Harsin to empty the clip in the Iron Bowl, as was Gus’ custom. I am not laying the points, but I have a hard time making a case for Auburn, beyond supernatural happenings in Jordan-Hare or a total choke job from Bama. Hey, we’ve seen both. Auburn is 2-0 at home the last two Iron Bowls. Bama’s secondary will be further exposed here before long, but I doubt it’s against Auburn and Finley. I wasn’t able to do much at open this week, or I would have pounced on that circa total open at 51.5. It’s still a bit too low, but I can’t bring myself to root for Auburn to score a point in this game, and I certainly don’t want anything to spoil a Bama win by any margin. 41-20 Bama.
Clemson @ South Carolina (+11/42.5)
Clemson 8-3. L 3-10 UGA (N – Charlotte) – 180-256 (3.0-4.2), W SC State 49-3 – 504-235 (6.7-3.9), W GT 14-8 – 284-309 (4.4-4.4), L 21-27 (14-14 reg) NC State (OT) – 214-386 (4.4-4.0), W 19-13 BC – 438-357 (6.4-4.8), W 17-14 @ Cuse – 314-356 (4.3-5.3), L 17-27 @ Pitt – 315-464 (5.1-5.7), W 30-20 FSU – 377-241 (5.1-4.3), W 30-24 @ Ville – 345-397 (5.1-5.7), W 44-7 UConn – 476-99 (4.8-1.7), W 48-27 Wake – 543-406 (7.3-5.4)
SC 6-5. W EIU 46-0 – 439-109 (5.9-2.5), W ECU 20-17 – 323-263 (5.1-4.2), L UGA 13-40 – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), L UK 10-16 – 216-332 (4.2-5.0), W 23-14 Troy – 357-303 (5.9-4.4), L 20-45 @ UT – 370-472 (4.9-6.6), W Vandy 21-20 – 434-312 (6.5-5.2), L 14-44 @ Texas A&M – 185-477 (3.2-6.0), W 40-17 Florida – 459-340 (7.0-6.1), L 28-31 @ Missouri – 250-438 (3.8-6.3), W 21-17 Auburn – 306-379 (5.5-5.9)
I have very little feel for this game. If there was ever a year for South Carolina to get em, this is it, but they stink too. I suppose the SC defense could keep them in it, but I don’t see how their offense poses any threat whatsoever to Clemson’s defense. Clemson has won the last six in this game, 38-3 at SC in ‘19. I don’t know, Clemson 30-14?
FSU @ Florida (-2.5/59.5)
FSU 5-6. L 38-41 ND – 442-431 (6.0-6.2), L 17-20 Jacksonville State – 335-350 (4.7-4.5), L 14-35 @ Wake -317-484 (6.2-5.4), L @ Louisville 23-31 – 453-395 (6.0-4.9), W 33-30 Cuse – 378-389 (5.5-6.2), W 35-25 @ UNC – 383-432 (7.1-6.4), W 59-3 UMass – 586-241 (9.8-4.0), L 20-30 @ Clemson – 241-377 (4.3-5.1), L 14-28 NC State – 271-400 (3.8-5.8), W 31-28 Miami – 434-359 (5.9-5.1), W 29-26 @ BC – 365-318 (5.6-4.2)
UF 5-6. 35-14 FAU – 553-353 (6.8-5.0), W USF 42-20 – 666-283 (9.7-4.0), L 29-31 Bama – 439-331 (6.2-5.3), W Tennessee 38-14 – 505-423 (7.4-6.2), L 13-20 @ UK – 382-224 (5.4-4.8), W 42-0 Vandy – 479-287 (7.6-3.6), L 42-49 @ LSU – 488-454 (6.5-6.6), L 7-31 v UGA – 355-354 (4.8-6.8), L 17-40 @ USCe – 340-459 (6.1-7.0), W 70-52 Samford – 717-530 (10.4-6.2), L 23-24 @ Missouri (16-16 OT) – 360-286 (5.1-4.6)
How bad has this season gone for Florida? They were -16 in the lookahead market in this game over the summer. Circa opened FSU -1. Just 60 hours ago, FSU could be had at +10. I took them, but wish I had for more. These two teams are trending in total opposite directions. After UF beat Vandy 42-0, they lost by 7, 27, 23, gave up 52 to a FCS school, and lost by 1 to Missouri. They just fired their coach, and I don’t see how any of the off-field stuff benefits them this week. You want to be able to focus on football and beating a rival, and this week has turned into a clown show. FSU has won their last two games against Miami and BC as underdogs. They are trying to become the first team to start the year 0-4 and make a bowl game since Colorado did it in 1986. I mentioned it last week, but when Jordan Travis starts at QB, this offense is one of the better groups in the country both in a pure scoring and YPP basis. They still don’t have any difference makers at WR, but neither does Florida. Both teams will want to run the football. Florida’s defense is better overall, but they are weaker against the run and better against the pass, which isn’t the ideal matchup for them. FSU has gotten significantly better play from their DL over the past two weeks. The group has always been capable, but they are playing good football. I mentioned it in my Miami preview, but I tend to think most rivalries bring out the best in defenses where aggression is rewarded and encouraged. FSU has won five of the last eight meetings in the series but has dropped the past two games while being outscored 81-31. They didn’t meet last year due to the rona. I think the total is probably just a touch high, but I probably won’t mess with it. I hope FSU wins, but I think it’s gonna be a close game either way, maybe something like 28-27. I wouldn’t mess with the game at the current -2.5/3.
aTm @ LSU (+6.5/45.5)
aTm 8-3. W Kent State 41-10 – 595-336 (7.8-4.5), W @ Col 10-7 – 288-260 (4.2-4.1), W New Mex 34-0 (6.4-2.1), L 10-20 Arky (N-Dallas) 272-443 (4.6-6.5), L 22-26 Miss State – 297-438 (5.7-5.8), W 41-38 Bama – 379-522 (6.5-6.4), W 35-14 @ Missouri 432-328 (6.4-4.5), W 44-14 USCe – 477-185 (6.0-3.2), W 20-3 Auburn – 409-226 (6.4-3.2), L 19-29 @ Ole Miss – 378-504 (5.4-5.4), W 52-3 PVAM – 447-154 (7.1-2.9)
LSU 5-6. L 27-38 @ UCLA – 379-470 (5.3-7.5), W 37-7 McNeese – 306-142 (4.2-2.3), W 49-21 CMU – 484-284 (7.7-4.1), W 28-25 @ Miss St – 343-486 (6.4-5.5), L 19-24 Auburn – 358-453 (5.0-5.9), L 21-42 @ UK – 408-475 (5.6-7.7), W Florida 49-42 – 455-488 (6.6-6.5), L 17-31 @ OM – 326-470 (4.8-6.4), L 14-20 @ Alabama – 295-308 (4.0-4.9), L W 13-16 HOGS – 308-283 (3.9-4.3), W 27-14 ULM – 411-311 (5.7-4.7)
aTm demolished an FCS team last week. LSU played a competitive game with ULM, winning 27-14 as 4-TD favorites.
I wanted to bet this game under the total, but my target number was 48. I never saw it. Texas AM is a traditional football team. They wanna run the ball and play good defense. LSU has actually evolved into that same mold late this season. Neither of these teams have particularly high powered offenses, but aTm has the edge on offense, and they also have the better defense. They also have stability within the program. What they don’t have is their home crowd behind them, and as I mentioned when aTm went to Ole Miss, that was a new world for Calzada as he entered his first hostile environment. He was just okay, but Death Valley at night can be a different beast. Do the fans care about a bowl? Do the players wanna play in one? Probably not would be my guess as to the answer to both questions, but I don’t know. I just think the Ags are a better football team, but I don’t see anything egregious in the side or total in this game. I would lean to both aTm and under, but I don’t want any involvement in the game. I would be most compelled to go under if the total were to get bet up, but I doubt that happens. aTm is 2-1 the last three, winning 20-7 last year. I’ll go 24-17 Ags.
#MACtion
Well, if you are reading this, you’ve made it to another dose of midweek MACtion. There is no more despicable FBS product than what we will see tonight. Almost nothing makes sense in this league and I would contend that there are no good bets that can be made in the MAC. The only good bet you can make in this league is abstinence. Who is shaving points? When will the unexpected sleet storm come rolling in? Just how much cement did that DB pour into the soles of his cleats? Who will inexplicably attempt onside kicks or go for two when it’s entirely unwarranted? These are the questions that demand answers in the MAC. Do I recommend betting on this rubbish? ABSOLUTELY NOT. Am I going to? Well, I was going to undertake this as a thought experiment, but then I realized I need some skin in the game. I’m going to attempt to take a side or total in every midweek MACtion game for the rest of the season, and we will see how bad things can get. I’m going to put ten whole dollars ($10) on each of these selections in hopes of winning and being able to enjoy the fruits of my labor come December. What will I do with my theoretical winnings? I will buy a nice, hot delicious pepperoni and mushroom pizza and watch Home Alone 2 while I sup like a king. If I lose so much I have to sell my VHS player and can’t afford my pie, I’ll probably just keep reading about Monkey Gate and have a few cups of crushed ice instead. I know that winning the equivalent of 2 McUnits betting MACtion would be a Herculean task, but I feel up for it this season (I don’t).
We must go 5-1 or 6-0 to get this pizza. HERE WE GO!
MACtion Tally: 7-8-1 (-$15)
Buffalo @ Ball State (-6.5/58.5)
WMU @ NIU (+3.5/61.5)
Ohio @ BGSU (+5.5/48)
EMU @ CMU (-8.5/64)
Akron @ Toledo (-28.5/57.5)
MOH @ Kent State (-1.5/65)
Tuesday:
Ball State -6.5
WMU/NIU Over 61.5
Friday:
Ohio/BGSU Over 48
Saturday:
EMU/CMU Over 64
Akron TT Over 14 (estimated)
Miami Ohio ML (emotional hedge for my KSU MAC title 14/1)
Extra (Real) Plays:
Boise State -2.5
Kansas State/Texas Under 52
ECU +14
I played Oregon State and Oklahoma State in look ahead markets but numbers are significantly worse now. I am also considering ULM but think I may be able to get a little more on top of the 22.
