Triumphant Duos

I’m sure you’re familiar with the word “stacking” in fantasy football lingo. With the emergence of Best Ball, it has become a popular strategy and has shown evidence that it works. It’s a strategy that can even be employed in your managed redraft leagues. Why stack players from the same offense? Because if an offense has a spike week, usually everyone on that team benefits. More specifically, stacking QBs with their respective WRs. Now we don’t want to just stack players from any offense, we want to target good to great offenses.

No, this isn’t a Best Ball strategy article. (You’re either disappointed or relieved that it isn’t.) There are plenty of those out there. I’m getting to the point.

I wanted to take a look at how often do WR teammates both finish in the top 12 in the same year. This is a trend that has occurred 18/20 years. Yes, you read that correctly. These are top 12 finishes in points per game with a minimum of 10 games played. Actually, the trend would’ve been 19/20 if it weren’t for Austin Collie only appearing in 9 games for the Colts in 2010. This occurrence not only happens every year, but sometimes there are multiple duos of teammates who finish top 12 together. To my point earlier, stacking good offenses can benefit multiple players on the same team. We’ve arrived at the point.

Now, let’s take a look at which teams are capable of producing multiple top 12 WRs this year. During my research, I noticed there were a few ways this was achieved: either through sheer volume alone, a highly efficient offense, or an okay offense but the targets were consolidated. Of course, the QB had to be good for their WRs succeed. In most cases it was a good offense, so let’s focus on teams this year that are projected as such. In other words which QBs are projected to throw for the most passing yards. I’m not an expert in projections, so I’ll be using some of Mike Clay’s projections for the 2022 season to fill in the gaps for my shortcomings. Also took a look at sportsbooks to see who they have projected to lead the league in passing yards. Of course, my focus isn’t on who will actually lead but rather on which QBs have the best chance at producing multiple top 12 WRs.

Prime Candidates:

• Justin Herbert (Keenan Allen & Mike Williams)
• Matthew Stafford (Cooper Kupp & Allen Robinson)
• Tom Brady (Mike Evans & Julio Jones)
• Patrick Mahomes (JuJu Smith-Schuster & Skyy Moore)
• Joe Burrow (Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins)
• Derek Carr (Davante Adams & Hunter Renfrow)
• Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs & Gabriel Davis)
• Russell Wilson (Courtland Sutton & Jerry Jeudy)
• Kirk Cousins (Justin Jefferson & Adam Thielen)
• Jameis Winston (Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, & Chris Olave)

Honorable Mentions:

These candidates present more uncertainty because of the QB play. Running QBs and/or not established as good passers capable of supporting two top 12 WRs.

• Ryan Tannehill (Treylon Burks & Robert Woods) Run centric team and Woods is coming off an ACL injury.
• Tua Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle) Training camp news has been positive about Tua, but I’d like to see how Tua has improved first. He could very well be on the list next year with his new duo.
• Kyler Murray (DeAndre Hopkins & Marquise Brown) Hopkins is suspended to start the year, and the Cardinals don’t always finish the season as well as they start.
• Trey Lance (Deebo Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk) 2nd year QB, but he might as well be a rookie. Plus he’s definitely a running QB, and I’m not sure he can support 2 elite players in Deebo and Kittle plus Aiyuk to be put into this trend.
• Jalen Hurts (AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith) Running QB in an offense that had the league’s lowest pass attempts.
• Zach Wilson (Elijah Moore & Garrett Wilson) Zach Wilson still needs to prove he’s a good NFL QB before we can entrust him with supporting a top 12 duo.
• Kenny Pickett (Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, & George Pickens) Rookie QBs are rarely ever good news for their pass catchers. Besides, the job might not even be Pickett’s till later on in the season.
• Daniel Jones (Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, & Wan’Dale Robinson) I’m excited to see what the Giants offense looks like under Brian Daboll. It should be fun, but I’m not sure this group is capable of ascending to lofty heights. A lot of unproven talent.

That leaves us with 10 WR duos that have a chance of shared success. A few trends I noticed when looking at commonalities amongst these occurrences. They had above league average in pass attempts, above average efficiency of the offense, above average passing touchdowns, or some combination of the three. I’m going to once again lean on projections from Mike Clay’s projections for 2022. It’s not just all on the QB. The WRs themselves have to be really good. Each tandem combined for an average of 19.8 TDs with a low of 11 between Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, high of 31 between Moss and Welker. These WRs also commanded a high target share of at least 20%, and if they didn’t, it was because their team had an insane amount of passing volume.

Chargers duo ⭐⭐⭐

I have less faith in Mike Williams holding up his end of the deal in this partnership. Last year was the first time in his career he topped a 20% target share. He did get close to finishing top 12 on the year which was propelled by a new role to start the season. They definitely have a chance to get there with Herbert at the helm.

Rams duo ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is one of my most confident duos to bet on finishing top 12. Cooper Kupp shot up to a whole new stratosphere earning an insane 30% target share when he previously never even topped 25%. However, he has steadily increased his share each year. Though I believe that it comes down a little especially with the signing of Allen Robinson. ARob is coming off one of his worst years but his peripherals weren’t all bad. I think we’ll see a bit of resurgence from him. Playing with Stafford will push Robinson to his best self. All Stafford has ever done is make his WRs look good.

Bucs duo ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bucs could legitimately have 3 WRs in the top 12, but there isn’t a precedence for it, so I can’t confidently say that. There has been a trio of WRs from the same team to finish inside top 24. My very little reluctance in this duo is Julio Jones is now 33 years old and coming off his worst year. This is Julio Jones, though, so I won’t bet against the man who has been a perennial top 12 WR and has done so while sharing the spotlight in 3 other instances. Chris Godwin is the odd man out in this scenario since he’s coming off an ACL injury, and we know how players are the year after.

Chiefs duo ⭐⭐

This duo gives me almost very little hope, but they have to be on this list because Patrick Mahomes is the true goat. Also, JuJu has been able to put up a top 12 season while sharing the honor with Antonio Brown. JuJu was consistently put in unfavorable positions ever since Big Ben’s decline. Skyy Moore is fascinating, and I’m not quite sure what to make of him as far as projections go. I know he’s a really good prospect on a team with Patrick Mahomes. For JuJu and Skyy to get there, they’ll likely need to steal some targets away from Travis Kelce. That’s not an easy task, but Kelce is getting older, and you never know.

Bengals duo ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

These two alphas are the most recent addition to the top 12 duo list, and they just might be here to stay. I think this offense might become even more pass-heavy as they get comfortable with each other. The trio of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are only in their 2nd/3rd years. We need to get used to them atop every offensive list of accomplishments. Burrow is another year removed from his gruesome knee injury and was likely the reason they weren’t as pass-heavy to start the year.

Raiders duo ⭐

Davante Adams can gas up his homie, Derek Carr, all he wants, but he’s not Aaron Rodgers. Adams won’t turn into a pumpkin or anything. He’ll likely maintain his 30% ts or maybe slightly below it. He’ll likely even finish as a top 6 WR. He’s not the issue here. Can Derek Carr support two top WRs on top of one of the elite TEs in Darren Waller? I highly doubt it. I love Renfrow, but he’ll have a tough time stealing targets away from both Adams and Waller, which will limit his share of the pie and keep him from ever sniffing the top 12.

Bills duo ⭐⭐⭐

The talk of the offseason, Gabe Davis. There have been countless debates all offseason on what he can become. I’m not sure what he is. He did have the historic 4 TD game in the AFC championship. Was that a prelude to what’s to come or was that just a mirage? I’d lean towards what he’s shown us over a larger sample. He’s never earned more than 10.9% ts in each of his 2 years in the league. Can he all of a sudden jump to an 18.3% share? It doesn’t happen often, and maybe he doesn’t even need to because the Bills are one of the more pass-happy teams in the league. They are once again projected to be at the top of that group and are the Super Bowl favorites. Good teams usually are likely to produce top 12 WRs. I just have very little confidence that Davis can join Diggs atop that mountain.

Broncos duo ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A good QB can cure all. This team gives me similar vibes to when Peyton Manning first became a Bronco. He took a ready-made team with all the pieces in place that just needed a QB. Here we are with Russell Wilson and two talented WRs, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Neither of the 2 have ever finished in the top 12. If I were to bet which one would be the first, I’d say Courtland Sutton. The buzz all offseason has been Sutton is Wilson’s favorite target. It’s hard to imagine two WRs becoming top 12 for the first time together, but then again, that’s exactly what happened when Peyton arrived.

Vikings duo ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Is Kirk Cousins underrated, or has he just been blessed with great WRs? Probably both, I’d lean 35/75. Nonetheless, he’s done it repeatedly. 3 instances to be exact. The Vikings duo is on here just for that reason alone. Justin Jefferson is just getting warmed up and will be a stud throughout the entirety of his career. Adam Thielen is getting older, however, and might not be able to make it back into the top 12 let alone have to go up against Jefferson for some of those targets.

Saints duo/trio ⭐⭐⭐

Another group that has the potential to produce not 2 but 3 WRs that could vie for the top 12. Highly unlikely, but at least 2 from this group could get there. Landry and Thomas have both been there. Thomas has even been the #1 overall WR and shared the spotlight with Brandin Cooks as a teammate and doing so as a rookie. That Michael Thomas is a few years removed, though. Maybe the injuries have zapped him, but we can’t count out a player with that type of pedigree. Chris Olave could certainly make a case. He’s no stranger to competition, coming from the crowded WR room in Ohio State. The Saints no longer have Brees so why am I so confident in them being able to produce a top 12 duo? Jameis Winston has done it before. He’s certainly capable of doing it again. Last year he had the pleasure of throwing to Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris to name a few recognizable names. Now he’s got a massive upgrade.

*Omitted players coming off an ACL injury as they normally do not perform up to their own standards.
*My targets projections are an average of the past 3 years for non-rookies. 2-year average of players’ non-rookie years for players with 3 years. Rookie WR projections and all QB projections are from Mike Clay’s projections.
Data via FantasyData, PlayerProfiler