On a scale of Carole Baskins to Joe Exotic, how likely is Notre Dame to make the playoffs in 2020? @devywarehouse
Much like Manti Te’o’s girlfriend, Carole’s husband, and Saff Exotic’s arm, Notre Dame has officially disappeared from the title picture. Unlike the curious cases above, the Irish’s problem is that they have proven themselves unable to compete with the speed of the premier programs. There are years where they can hold up in the trenches but the consistent issue has been a lack of speed on the perimeter. While not solely relying on players like Boykin (his speed at the combine was a mirage) and Claypool, they’ll have the opportunity to use what they’ve learned in years past and deploy some quick-twitch guys that can hopefully give them a fighting chance against some of the big boys. While fantasy players want to see a high market share and dominator rating, it’s typically as much of an indictment about a coach’s inability to recruit players than it is about a guy being a great talent. Notre Dame needs more guys and they need to grow up fast. Due respect to Finke, it’s tax season, hang up the pads and get out your calculator, nerd! My final comment for Notre Dame is evergreen: this just wasn’t the year for the Irish.
How do we deal with Trey Lance in Devy? FCS, but NDSU has sent two straight QBs to the NFL… and he gave us everything we could want to see in 2019. @al_FF_red
I’m a Trey Lance fan. However, I’m not a Trey lance zealot! I’ll start with my devy philosophy on quarterbacks.
- Don’t draft them.
- If you draft them, only focus on the elite guys that you’ve heard NFL scouts mention as the top upcoming guys
- If you draft them, the sooner they will declare for the draft, the better.
I’ll give some practical examples of guys that I would consider in most shallow to moderate SuperFlex/2QB devy leagues: Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Jamie Newman, Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler. I almost stopped after the first two, who are first-round locks next year, but I feel reasonably confident about the other three as well. Going back to points 2 and 3, I don’t know that Lance is firmly on the NFL scouting radar yet. The more I type about it, I think three is more important to me than two. While Lance is technically eligible next season, rarely, small school guys come out early. There are a variety of reasons why that is the case, but I don’t have the time to opine about it right now. I don’t know much about Lance’s background, but I think that it’s a lot more likely that he plays for two or three more years than it is that he declares after next season. While I’m okay waiting for a player to promote off of my taxi, I’m not wild about waiting for a quarterback. While Carson Wentz is in the potential range of outcomes, so is Easton Stick, to use two examples of his fellow NDSU Bison. I like Lance. As you said, he did a lot of good things last season. He will probably have good experience under his belt, he’s big enough to check most front office’s boxes, and he can boogie. That’s generally a great trifecta. I like the player, but he’s not a guy that I’m going to target in any of my leagues actively. I’ll take a wait and see approach as he’s not likely to be drafted in most formats this season.
Are the Over 5.5 Wide receivers drafted in Round 1 the betting lock of our lifetime? @AJKolodziej
No, I don’t think so. The way that I see things right now, we’ve got four guys that look to be locks:
- Lamb
- Ruggs
- Jeudy
- Jefferson
Beyond those two, the conversation consists of Mims, Aiyuk, Reagor, Higgins, Shenault. Before we get too excited about the potential of nine different players, I think we have to look at positional needs of teams in the first and also factor the quality of the WR class. It’s very dangerous to stipulate competency for an NFL front office, but if they have done their homework, they will see that this is shaping up to be a draft where you can draft starters at WR in rounds three and four. Going back to my first point, which teams could possibly go WR in the first?
- Raiders
- Jets
- Broncos
- Eagles
- Saints
- Packers
- Vikings
- Dolphins
25% are possible destinations. Not bad! However, possible and probable are two different beasts. I feel that four is more likely than seven and five is more likely than six. Needing six to cash, the margins are razor-thin. One of my strategies when handicapping draft props is attempting to identify and short the markets where there are only single bullets. For example, Tua over 3.5 is one of them. One and two are locked up, three is the only option for him to cash an under there, and I’m doing my best to read the tea leaves about the risk he carries with various franchises. While that’s not quite an apples-to-apples example with the receivers, I think there are only five or six realistic spots for a receiver in round one. I am long on offensive players drafted in round one, so I hope I am wrong and that we get most of those guys all in the first, but I don’t wanna back that particular bet right now.
How much of a step forward can Pitt’s offense make next year? @FrancoMark89
This feels icky to say, but I can get behind Pitt taking a pretty sizable step this year. Year two of the Whipple offense should yield better results. They’ve got a potential alpha WR in Mack, a stable of backs, the majority of their OL returning, and an experienced QB that has shown flashes of brilliance. The Nard Dog had this to say, “I do believe this: Continuity is important, especially on the offense,” Narduzzi said on the first day of camp. “[Defensive coordinator Randy] Bates’ first year compared to his second year, you guys can go look at all the numbers and the rankings. We expect the same thing out of the offense, first year to second year. That second year is important.” This will be the first time in his tenure that he has both coordinators back for consecutive years. They ranked 112th last year in scoring offense, and I would speculate that they can make a big jump closer to the middle of the 130-team-pack.
Give me a couple of your favorite players G5 and P5 that you liked but didn’t make the cut for the @DevyWatch? @HaitainKid79
Texas Tech, QB, Alan Bowman
Transfer Portal, RB, Ricky Slade
Those are two guys that immediately came to mind for me. Bowman was injured last season, or I believe that he would have made it this year. He should have a big season for the Red Raiders and put himself on scout’s radars heading into the 2021 season.
Ricky Slade is the king of the Cat & Mouse drill that has become so popular at 7v7 camps. It’s basically a test of how agile and elusive you are in 1v1 situations with a defender. Slade is slicker than snot on a doorknob and his highlight clips doing those drills are tremendous! It made sense for us to leave him out right now, as he is homeless, and we don’t know where he is headed in the portal. Assessing opportunity is a massive aspect of this business, and we don’t know when and if he will have his next one.
I have a few others, but you know me well enough to know that I’m quite ready to show my full hand, as I’m currently in Round 14 of 35 in a CFF Redraft league. I’ve got a few wide receivers up my sleeve that are poised for potentially significant seasons. I’ll share more about them in my upcoming CFF team previews and Coaching Changes piece!
