Rondale Moore Historical Look

Rondale Moore flashed onto the scene on the opening night of the 2018 season against the Northwestern Wildcats. Moore caught 11 passes for 109 yards and one receiving touchdown. He added 2 rushing attempts for 79 yards and a rushing touchdown. By all accounts, Moore had one of the most productive seasons ever for a true freshman receiver. Over the last ten years, the college football world has seen several phenomenal performances by true freshman wideouts, but Moore’s 2018 season stands above them all.

At the beginning of the 2018 season, Moore was 18.2 years old. The same exact age as some other recent sensational freshman in Amari Cooper and Sammy Watkins, both of whom were selected 4th overall in their respective drafts. Watkins and Moore’s true freshman seasons were extremely close statistically. Yards, touchdowns, and Dominator Rating were almost identical, but Moore hauled in 31 more receptions. 

Moore’s 114 receptions in 2018 ranked as the 16th most receptions in a single season since 2009. During that same time period, he recorded the most catches by a freshman, either true or redshirt, passing MTSU redshirt freshman Richie James’ 108 catches in the 2015 season. His 114 catches were the most in the Big Ten since Allen Robinson hauled in 97 catches as a junior during the 2013 season as a Nittany Lion. 

Rondale Moore and Sammy Watkins’ 12 touchdown catches ranked as the most by a true freshman wide receiver since the 2009 season. Davante Adams hauled in 14 touchdown receptions during the 2012 season as a 19.7-year-old redshirt freshman. Moore’s 12 touchdowns are in a nine-way tie for the most touchdown catches in a Big Ten season since 2009. Moore was by far the youngest player to do so, the average age of the other eight to catch 12 touchdown passes was 21.7 years of age. 

Moore is also the highest-ranked true freshman for receiving yards. Since 2009, his 1,258 yards were the most, just edging out Sammy Watkins by 33 yards. Two redshirt freshmen, Richie James and Davante Adams, hauled in almost 100 yards more than Moore, but both players were at least one and a half years older than Moore at the start of each respected season. 

Moore accumulated one of the highest scores in my Age-Adjusted scoring metric – very similar to Jon Moore’s Phenom Index – of all-time. While Jon calculates his score within a player’s class (Example: Tyler Boyd is compared to only other WRs in his draft class), I compare a prospect’s season against every player from every season since 2009. Another difference between Jon and I is that he uses a zScore of the prospect’s final season market share of yards; I use a zScore from a player’s True Dominator Rating – a metric created by our own LJ Chaney. Instead of just averaging a player’s market share of yards and touchdowns to get a Dominator Rating, true Dominator Rating also accounts for a receiver’s market share of targets within the offense (Average of MS Yards, MS TDs, and MS Targets = TrDR). Where the Phenom Index only calculates a prospect’s final season of production, I grade out each season for a prospect to get the Age-Adjusted Score. The goal of Age-Adjusted Score is to find the best young producers where the younger a prospect is during that season coupled with a great True Dominator Rating equals a higher score. 

I have ages for 1,160 prospects in my database. Moore’s freshman season ranks fourth out of those 1,160. All receivers drafted since 2010 have ages entered except for a few late-round picks that can’t be found. My database also has ages and scores for undrafted free agents who have NFL-relevant careers and other big-time college producers from 2009-2018. Only Tyler Johnson’s sophomore season at Minnesota in 2017 and Corey Davis’ freshman season at Western Michigan in 2013 have higher scores than Moore out of NFL-relevant talent. Alejandro Villanueva’s senior season at Army ranked above Moore as well, but due to the triple option and low passing volume, Villanueva hauled in all five passing TDs for the Black Knights in 2009 to skew his market share of touchdowns. Plus, Villanueva converted to offensive tackle once he entered the NFL. 

The Age-Adjusted Score boasts NFL players such as Corey Davis (appears twice), Tyler Boyd (appears twice), Demaryius Thomas, Sammy Watkins, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the all-time top 25 Age-Adjusted seasons. Players like Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, and Robert Woods fell just outside of the top 25. 

Moore’s freshman puts him in an elite category with the ability to produce at a young age. With only being 19.2 to start the 2019 season, he has a chance to make the top 25 list once again joining Corey Davis, Tyler Boyd, and Tyler Johnson (who is still in college as well).