We know that of all the positions, football is unkind to RBs the most. Teams can’t afford for them to come along slowly. The position requires you to step on the field and produce at a high level from day one because their playing days are limited. With literary each carry, an RB is getting closer to the end. There are several studies done on RB cliffs. Whether these studies have any legitimate merits to them is something I can’t say with certainty. We have a small sample problem when looking into some of these studies. There are studies about certain milestones such as 1,800 total career carries, heavy season usage of 370 carries or 400 total touches in a season and ultimately hitting the age cliff at 29 years old. All these studies were done to identify exactly when RBs start to decline. In the game we play, it’s important we can identify who these players are so we can proactively move on from them before they hurt our chances of winning. Even if we didn’t look at any of these studies, we can intuitively surmise that oftentimes the more touches an RB gets the mileage starts to add up and their bodies take longer and longer to heal than in their early playing days. We can even see a noticeable dip in their explosiveness on the field as they get older. Let’s see which RBs can be expected to take a step back in production and ultimately get replaced by the shiny new car.
Below, I’ve included each player’s age at the start of the ’22-’23 season, when they become free agents, their ¹KTC values, and current ²ADP as of 06/20/2022.
Ezekiel Elliott (27yo) Out 2023, UFA 2027 – career carries 1,650
KTC value: 3806 ADP: 76.0
Other RBs: Tony Pollard (25yo) UFA 2023
KTC value: 3593 ADP: 107.0
Rico Dowdle (24yo) RFA 2023
Elliott will more than likely cross the 1,800 carry milestone halfway through the 2022 season. Zeke has averaged 275 carries per season and has never had less than 237 carries (2021). We’ve already seen a decline in play the past 2 years and it wouldn’t come as a shock if/when he’s ultimately outperformed by his backfield mate Tony Pollard. At this point, it might be a year too late to move on from him. Your best hope would be for him to have a few productive games to start the year and ship him off to someone who still believes in him.
Dalvin Cook (27yo) Out 2023, UFA 2026 – career carries 1,018
KTC value: 5032 ADP: 33.1
Other RBs: Alexander Mattison (24yo) UFA 2023
KTC value: 2730 ADP: 139.3
Kene Nwangwu (24yo) UFA 2025
Ty Chandler (24yo) UFA 2026
Cook still has a couple of seasons worth of mileage left. Cook is probably a confusing addition to this list for many I would imagine. I wouldn’t be actively trying to move on from him just yet. He just signed an extension last offseason, then continued to post a top 12 season in PPR ppg, while posting back-to-back top 5 seasons the previous 2 seasons. He’s someone who can help you win your league. Just know that his production and value cliff will be coming and I’d rather be proactive and trade him for as much as I can get while enjoying the production, he gives you now. This really depends on what the makeup of your team currently suggests because Cook is an elite back, but he’s no spring chicken. A few things working against Cook at the moment are his impending legal issues and the fact Minnesota just went through a regime change and a GM (Kwesi Adofo-Mensah) whose decision-making might be more analytical and salary driven seeing as he comes from a finance background. They might opt to save some money on an aging back at a position they can replace with a cheaper option.
Derrick Henry (28yo) UFA 2024 – career carries 1,401
KTC value: 4679 ADP: 39.4
Other RBs: Hassan Haskins (22yo) UFA 2026
KTC value: 1601 ADP: 183.2
Dontrell Hilliard (27yo) UFA 2023
KTC value: 618 ADP: 285.4
Henry could be an exception to the rule, but I will never bet on outliers. He’s coming off a foot injury at age 28. Even though he had very little milage to begin his career, the first 3 seasons, he more than made up for it the next 2 by posting 300+ carries in back-to-back seasons and was well on his way to another, pacing for almost 400+ carries even if you don’t extrapolate for the new 17-game season. He showed us his superhuman healing ability by returning in the very same season he broke his foot by playing in the postseason, so you never know, but he’s another back I’d be looking to move by the end of this season.
Honorable Mentions:
Austin Ekeler (27yo) UFA 2024 – career carries 607, KTC: 5022 ADP: 27.1
Smaller back who has exceeded 200+ touches only twice in his career. Prior to a career year in touches (276) in 2021, he had touches of 145, 224, and 170 the previous three seasons. I’m mildly tempering my expectations that he gets as many touches as he did in 2021. I sense he’ll be used in situations such as more long down and distance and 2-minute drills while leaving the in-between stuff to bigger backs on the depth chart. Ekeler’s fantasy output was also greatly propelled by his career-high 20 touchdowns after never having had more than 11 prior to last year.
Aaron Jones (27yo) out 2023, UFA 2025 – career carries 822, KTC: 4277 ADP: 62.7
Another smaller framed back who isn’t a grinder and therefore doesn’t absorb as much punishment as some of the bigger backs in this article. Jones, similar to Ekeler, is a dangerous weapon in the passing game. I’m not as worried about these 2 backs because of what they can provide playing out of the backfield. Jones is cheap enough to where I’m comfortable rostering him and he has incredible upside as arguably Aaron Rodgers’ #1 weapon.
2023 Free Agents:
- Saquon Barkley (25yo)
- Josh Jacobs (24yo)
- Miles Sanders (25yo)
- David Montgomery (25yo)
- Tony Pollard (25yo)
- Kareem Hunt (27yo)
- Melvin Gordon (29yo)
- Damien Harris (25yo)
- Alexander Mattison (24yo)
- Devin Singletary (25yo)
- Darrell Henderson (25yo)
- James Robinson (24yo)
2023 Prospects:
- Bijan Robinson, Texas
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
- Zachary Evans, Ole Miss
- Tank Bigsby, Auburn
- Sean Tucker, Syracuse
- Zach Charbonnet, UCLA
- Kendall Milton, Georgia
- Blake Corum, Michigan
- Jase McClellan, Alabama
- Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State
- MarShawn Lloyd, South Carolina
- Devon Achane, Texas A&M
Open Depth Charts:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Atlanta Falcons
- Chicago Bears
- Houston Texans
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Giants
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
We could be in for another exciting off-season in 2023 headlined by big names and juicy landing spots. When you consider what’s on the horizon in 2023, moving on from these depreciating assets should become a priority. There’s an exciting crop of young RBs set to hit the league next year as well as an abundance of veteran RBs set to hit the free agency market in 2023. If these vets aren’t locked up by then we might see a shift in the RB landscape. Please do not take this list as hard sells, it’s just something to be cognizant of when looking ahead. As much as we play to win now, we also want to be able to continuously position our teams for future success. Don’t fall in love with players at the cost of crippling your teams.
