When I evaluate QBs for the next level, I want to cut through all the fluff. College QBs numbers are heavily fluffed with screen passes and dependence on short and easy passes. A key point for me is looking at how QBs perform on passes that travel at least 10 yards in the air. Let’s take a look at some draft darlings and how they’ve performed so far on downfield passing.
The known commodities:
For me, there are only two QBs in this draft class, and everybody else is just a roster filler.
BTT = PFF Big Time Throws
TWP= PFF Turnover Worthy Passes
Bryce Young: 30/49, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 5 BTTs, 3 TWP
Despite a struggling receiving core, Young is up over 10% over last year with his completion rate. He’s currently 1 of 12 QBs with over a 60%. Only two QBs finished 2021 with over 60% (Grayson McCall and CJ Stroud).
CJ Stroud: 33/55, 11 TDs, 1 INT, 9 BTTs, 5 TWPs
Stroud is exactly on par with where he was at last year. That’s with losing 2 WRs to the NFL Draft and his best WR JSN barely seeing the field due to injury. Nearly 50% of Stroud’s passing attempts travel at least 10 yards. He’s one of 6 QBs with that high of a deep rate. CJ Stroud is the truth and the QB1 in this class.
Much like 2021, there are only two QBs I want and only two worthy of a high draft selection.
Pretenders:
Will Levis: 26/46, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 BTTs, 4 TWPs
Levis is currently up about 4% from last year. You would hope that number would be much higher while playing 2 MAC schools and 1 FCS opponent to date. Levis did lose his top target from 2021 in Wan’Dale Robinson to the NFL Draft. I need to see a hell of a lot more from Levis before I slightly believe any of the draft hype.
Devin Leary: 22/52, 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 6 BTTs, 4 TWPs
I was open in the offseason to the idea of Leary being QB3 for this spring’s draft, but after a month of the season, that openmindedness is gone. He’s down over 10% on his completion rate and already has more TWP than he did in all of 2021. Much like Levis, Leary hasn’t faced a murderers row of defenses either.
Tyler Van Dyke: 22/42, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 4 BTTs, 5 TWPs
Van Dyke was another name that I was open to viewing as a potential QB3 after his very good rFR 2021 season. But I haven’t seen that jump in his game to even have him in consideration anymore. His completion rate is up about 5% over last year, but his BTT rate is cut in about half from the prior year.
Anthony Richardson: 31/55, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 3 BTTs, 3 TWPs
I never understood the AR15 hype before the season and am still baffled by it. AR has all the traits in the world that you’d want in a QB, but at some point, you have to do the functional things necessary to succeed on Sundays. AR has two very good showings in 2022 and two horrid games. While this article is about downfield passing, AR even struggles to complete the short stuff. He has the 7th worst completion rate on passes that travel less than 10 yards.
Notables:
I don’t view any of these guys as NFL guys, but they’ve stood out in this article’s subject so far in a good or bad way.
Tanner Morgan: 32/44, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 6 BTTs, 1 TWP
Morgan leads the nation in completion rate on 10+ yard passes (mini 30 attempts). He’s seen over a 25% increase in his completion rate from 2021. While he’s faced NMSU, an FCS opponent, the worst P5 team in the country in Colorado, and a horrid MSU passing defense, it’s still a very impressive start to the season.
Hank Bachmeier: Has only completed 6 of 33 attempts downfield. Woof, but 5 of his 6 completions have been Big Time Throws.
Brennan Armstrong: The damage Tony Elliott has done to this man is sad. Armstrong completed 56% of his downfield passes in 2021. He’s sitting at just 30% so far in 2022, with more TWP (8) than BTT (6). UVA was one of the most fun and entertaining offenses in 2021 to just be completely neutered by Elliott.
Taulia Tagovialoa: Taulia has seen a small increase over 2021 in his completion rate but that comes against the likes of Charlotte, Buffalo, and SMU. He bounced back to reality against Michigan with a 5/13 showing with 2 INTs. He’s currently tied in 5th for the most TWPs with 6.
Michael Penix Jr: 36/65, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 10 BTTs, 1 TWP.
I’ve been hard on Penix in the past, but he’s done a total 180 in 2022. I’m not 100% on board with he’s turned his game around, but his early numbers have been pretty undeniable so far.
