Greg (@devywarehouse) had the idea to tackle one burning question for each college football team in 2020. We’ll break these up by conference and/or division. Greg asked Kyle (@FranchiseKF) and Brad (@DW_BMack) to join him for the ACC editions. Since the conference did away with divisions and added Notre Dame this year, we’ll tackle this alphabetically in two parts. If you missed part one, you can find it here. The questions will either reference college fantasy football, Devy, or real-world gameday or locker room topics.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Did NC State win the ACC schedule sweepstakes? @DW_BMack
Anytime a schedule is released we look for winners and losers, even if subconsciously. When the ACC re-released their 2020 conference schedule, someone had to be the biggest beneficiary. Was that someone the North Carolina State football team? I think so.
For starters, they are the only school who dodged both Clemson and Notre Dame. That’s probably enough to declare them the winner, but let’s keep looking. NC State had a disappointing 2019 season. By disappointing, I mean they were awful. They need a good start to 2020. Originally, they were scheduled to open conference play at Louisville. With the new schedule, they completely dodged Louisville as well. Looking deeper, they have a pretty balanced schedule with home games against Duke, FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Wake Forest and road games at North Carolina, Pitt, Cuse, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. If there is a coach in the ACC that needed this favorable schedule, it’s Dave Doeren.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Who steps up in a depleted receiving core? @DevyWarehouse
Only two teams in America are losing more receiving production than the Fightin’ Irish from the 2019 season. The Irish are losing 76% of their receiving yards and 77% of their targets from 2019. Their expected number one receiver for 2020, Kevin Austin, is also out for at least the first month of the season due to a broken foot as well. An already weak position group is almost crippled by the loss of Austin. Adding grad transfer, Ben Skowronek, will have a bigger impact than previously expected. He’s by far the most experienced player in the group. Coming from Northwestern where he’s hauled in 110/1417/8 over four years (only playing full time in two of those seasons). They bring back speedster Braden Lenzy. Lenzy is more of a gadget player. He’ll be involved in the deep passing game, screens, and jet sweeps. He’s not the alpha receiver that your offenses constantly relies upon. True freshman receiver Jordan Johnson was a top 50 overall player according to 247Sports. He’s made an impact on a few highlights provided by the team. He’ll have an excellent opportunity to make an impact before Austin he’s back healthy. Another option to overcome the lack of receivers is using multiple tight ends. The following was a quote from Brian Kelly early this week.
“I think you could make that case trying to decide what our best personnel grouping. We can make the case that we’re better suited with two tight ends on the field than we are with another slot. We’re still evaluating that and quite frankly, you’re going to see both. You’re going to see quite a bit of two tight ends.
“Look, I’ll say it right now, Tommy Tremble is one of our better offensive players. We already know about (Michael) Mayer, Brock Wright, Kevin Bauman and George Takacs. There are a lot of tight ends. We’re not going to be a one tight end offense. You will see three tight ends and not just in goal line. You’re going to see the utilization of three tight ends as a basic package. That’s our personnel grouping. Those are the guys that can help us win.
“If we had no tight ends, you would see four and five receivers on the field. We didn’t recruit that way. We’re going to take advantage of the personnel. We’ve got five tight ends that can play for us. You’re going to see a lot of tight ends on the field and it’s not just going to be 11 personnel. You’re going to see some 12 and 13 because that’s the kind of personnel we have that can help us win.”
Pittsburgh Panthers
Which Pittsburgh offense do we get? @DevyWarehouse
2018 to 2019 offensive approach was almost a night and day difference. While a lot of it more than likely was due to personnel changes. 2018 was a ground and pound approach that averaged just 23 passing attempts per game. While the 2019 team nearly doubled that output with 40 attempts per game, making Kenny Pickett and a couple of his receivers actually somewhat fantasy relevant in 2019. With the losses of Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall (both ran for over 1,000 yards in 2018), the Panthers ran the ball 7 fewer times per game but were able to manage running 73 plays per game. That was 10 more plays per game that they ran in 2019. Pickett is entering his third straight year as Pitt’s starter. If they keep up the 40 passes per game pace, and he improves his play, Pickett can work himself into a day 3 NFL Draft pick. With a defensive-minded head coach just how long does this wing it all over the field offense last?
Syracuse Orangemen
Who will be the esteemed WR1 in Babers’ offense? @FranchiseKF
This is from my 2020 CFF preview, “Taj Harris is Cuse’s WR1. I don’t know his true ADP, because I’ve selected him in both of my drafts as WR40, WR59, and WR44. He’s one of the most underrated receivers in the country right now. He’s a lock for 1,000 yards receiving, and there is potential that he makes as many as 100 catches along the way! Babers’ WR1 is fantasy gold, and for some reason, Harris being forgotten about. If the slot receiver gets more involved, the Orange has a good one in Nykeim Johnson. He’s got sprinter speed and is quicker than a hiccup. They would be wise to get him the ball a bunch. There is data that supports the moderate probability that he makes 80 catches this season. I won’t say that it’s likely, but it’s plausible while staying sober-minded. I purposefully didn’t draft Johnson in my first two of the season to see where he would be selected. He went undrafted in both behind 99 and 200 other receivers, respectively.”
Let’s take a by-the-numbers look at Babers’ WR’s throughout the years:
Eastern Illinois WR:
2012: 136-1664-12 & 53-888-11
2013: 123-1544-19 & 85-1305-13
Bowling Green WR:
2014: 73-1093-7 & 64-758-3
2015: 85-1544-16 & 94-1033-10 & 72-954-6
Syracuse WR:
2016: 94-1482-14 & 90-822-6
2017: 105-1347-7 & 89-904-4
2018: 51-906-6 & 64-756-3
2019: 66-1023-11
Virginia Cavaliers
Can the Cavaliers replicate their fantasy output at the QB spot? @DevyWarehouse
Former QB, Bryce Perkins, was a big-time fantasy producer for back-to-back seasons for the Cavs. Throwing for over 6,000 yards 47 TDs and adding another 1,700 yards and 20 TDs on the ground, Perkins was fantasy gold. Who steps up in that role for 2019? My money is on Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong was a three-star recruit out of Ohio. He was a thousand-yard rusher as a senior and added another 18 TDs on the ground. Armstrong isn’t quite the runner that Perkins was, but he can rush for 400-500 yards giving his fantasy output a nice boost. Armstrong is heading into his redshirt sophomore season so it’s not out of the question that he starts for another three seasons giving you good fantasy production. Mississippi State transfer, Keytaon Thompson, will do his best to take over the top spot. Thompson is an excellent runner but severely lacks accuracy as a passer. If given the keys to the car, Thompson can be a very good rushing QB, but I’m not confident he can be a consistent passer against P5 defenses.
Virginia Tech Hokies
With Raheem Blackshear’s eligibility waiver recently denied, what happens in the backfield? @DW_BMack
I think we all believed Blackshear would be able to play in 2020, but the NCAA is gonna NCAA. With Blackshear ineligible, the Hokies have 9 RBs on the roster, and seven of them have carries in game action. I don’t see how it doesn’t end up as some kind of RBBC, but if a true leader were to emerge, my guess is it’s either Khalil Herbert, the grad transfer from Kansas, or Marco Lee, the JUCO transfer who rushed for 1,232 yards and 9 TDs in two seasons at Coffeyville CC.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
How many games will Wake win in 2020? @FranchiseKF
Let’s take a look at the revised 2020 schedule:
Clemson
@ NC State
Notre Dame
BYE
Old Dominion
Virginia
Virginia Tech
@ Syracuse
BYE
@ UNC
@ Duke
Miami
@ Louisville
Now a look at how they fared against these foes in 2019:
Clemson 3-52 L
@ NC State 44-10 W
Notre Dame N/A
Old Dominion N/A
Virginia N/A
Virginia Tech 17-36 L
@ Syracuse 30-39 L
@ UNC 24-18 W
@ Duke 39-27 W
Miami N/A
@ Louisville 59-62 L
They went 8-5 a season ago, but they lost their starting QB, four of their five starters on the line, a 1,000-yard receiver, and their most productive RB on offense. While Jamie Newman is the most high-profile loss, I don’t necessarily see it that way. The offensive line will be the big question mark. Each of the past two seasons, the returning OL combined for 100+ career starts. This year, the returning OL have 28 starts. Sam Hartman has the potential to be a very good QB, but a QB can only go as far as their line will take them. Wake hasn’t fielded a good defense in years. That could change in 2020, but they have depth issues at LB and they have to replace some good cornerbacks. If Boogie Basham opts-out, it would be a massive blow. He should be a first round pick in the NFL.
There is only one lock on Wake’s schedule: Old Dominion. The other ten conference games feature some uphill battles. There are five games where I don’t give them a great chance at winning: Clemson, Notre Dame, VT, @ UNC, and Miami. So, that’s 1 probable win and 5 likely loses. That leaves five toss-ups where they will need to make their hay. I’ll give them road wins at NC State and Duke. Couple that with the ODU win and I think a 3-4 win season is the most likely. Will the season start? Will it finish? Will four-win teams go bowling this year? So many uncertainties this year, but I think this is a rebuilding year.
