Cleveland @ Kansas City (-10/57.5)
Weather: The National Weather Service is calling for wind gusts as high as 20 mph on winds of 6 to 11 mph. 42 degrees, partly cloudy, no precipitation in the forecast.
Nick Chubb Over 12.5 receiving yards -118 (DraftKings)
Nick Chubb Over 14.5 receiving yards -108 (FanDuel)
Don’t look now, but the ill-used collegiate receiver has proven himself quite capable as a pass-catcher in the NFL. Over his past seven games, Chubb has recorded the following receiving lines: 3-32-0, 1-26-0, 2-21-0, 2-16-0, 5-38-0, 0-0-0, and 4-69-1. That’s an average of 2.4-28.9-0 per game. In six of his last seven games, he has eclipsed 15 receiving yards and is fresh off of a 4-69-1 game. As two score underdogs, the Browns may elect to go to air a bit more than usual. Getting Chubb the ball in space is likely one of their best options in this contest. Against KC, backs have averaged six catches for 53 yards each game. Over their past five games, opposing teams’ backs have recorded the following rec lines against the Chiefs: 1-11-0, 11-108-0, 6-75-2, 9-78-0, 8-70-1. They’ve collected 35 catches on 48 targets in that stretch, for an average of 7-68. We need 1/4 of those yards from Chubb to cash in this game. While Kareem Hunt is better known as the pass-catching threat from this backfield, he averaged 2.4-23.7-0 through the air over the past seven games. That is five yards less per game than Chubb, yet his posted total is 5-7 yards higher than Chubb in this contest, and he’s unlikely to be on the field for as many snaps. I wouldn’t bet against Hunt getting 20+ yards here either; I point that out to illustrate what I believe is a market inefficiency. I actually ended up taking some Hunt Over 17.5 receiving yards -114 as well on Bet Builder. In two recent losses, he had 6-77-1 (7 targets) and 3-41-0 (5 targets). I believe this duo could surpass 50 yards.
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3/52)
Weather: Dome. Any wind gusts to smell of vomit, rum, and excrement.
Alvin Kamara Over 35.5 receiving yards -118 (FanDuel)
In his two contests against the Bucs this year, AK posted receiving lines of 5-51-1 (8 targets) and 5-9-0 (6 targets). He’s carried the ball a total of 21 times for 56 yards. That is consistent with the suffocation that the Bucs have performed on opposing teams’ runners. They’ve held 12 teams’ RBs to 60 rushing yards or less this season. Teams have proven better suited to use their backs as pass catchers, where the Bucs average 6 catches and 40 yards through the air. The Bucs have shown they generally improve against divisional backs via the air in the second time facing them, but I’m betting on Kamara’s probable volume in this contest. Over the past four games, Kamara has been a mixed bag as a receiver. He’s gone for 7-44, 3-40, 3-17, and 2-17. While he may be trending in the wrong direction, I’m making an assumption (Dangerous, I know) that the Saints will still want to feature Kamara in this contest and that their best opportunity to do so will be as a pass-catcher. In his playoff career, AK has done the following as a receiver: 1-10, 4-62, 4-35, 11-96, and 8-34. That’s a rough average of 6-47 per game in the playoffs. This is more of an informed hunch play than the majority of the others I’ve made this weekend, so take it for what it’s worth.
Jared Cook Over 2.5 receptions -118 (FanDuel)
Jared Cook Over 30.5 receiving yards -112 (FanDuel)
I highlighted it last week, but Tampa Bay is amongst the league’s most generous teams to opposing tight ends. They allow a seasonal average of 5-54 against the big fellas. Over the past seven games, opposing teams have targeted their TEs 59 times, and they’ve made 41 catches for 421 yards. That’s an average of 5.9-60.1 per game in that span. In the two games against the Bucs this year, Cook recorded 5-80-0 and 2-30-0. His last six games have seen him go for 3-28-1, 3-37-1, 2-29-0, 3-82-0, 4-43-1, and 4-40-0. That’s five of six games with 3+ catches and four of six with 31+ yards. The game against the Bucs, where Cook was held to 2-30-0, was a resounding 38-3 win by the Aints. I suspect this game will be a closer contest, and the market agrees, with the point spread being a FG in favor of the home town team. As of my writing this, Cook’s status for the game is uncertain. He’s dealing with the old man back (Who isn’t at age 33?), and there is a built-in buffer against him being inactive, in which case both bets would be refunded (In this case, the Kamara bet likely gets stronger). The nightmare scenario is that he plays but aggravates it early in the contest, but I’m willing to gamble a little bit given how soft I believe these numbers are. Full disclosure: I believe my bets on the Saints’ guys are the highest risk in my weekend bucket.
