With rookie fever in the air, we decided to take rookies and Devys and combine them into one mock draft. The format for this mock is Superflex and TE Premium.
ROUND 1
1.01 Jason – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (QB1 – 2021)
1.02 Kyle – Justin Fields, QB, Bears (QB2 – 2021)
1.03 Cody – Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons (TE1 – 2021)
1.04 Greg – Najee Harris, RB, Steelers (RB1 – 2021
1.05 Brad – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (WR1 – 2021)
1.06 Clay – Trey Lance, QB, 49ers (QB3 – 2021)
1.07 Jason – Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars (RB2 – 2021)
1.08 Kyle – Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State (RB1 – 2022)
1.09 Cody – Zach Wilson, QB, Jets (QB4 – 2021)
1.10 Greg – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (RB1 – 2023)
1.11 Brad – DJ Uiagalelei, QB, Clemson (QB1 – 2023)
1.12 Clay – Mac Jones, QB, Patriots (QB5 – 2021)
Not much to quibble with the first 7 picks here at the top of the first round. These 2021 rookies, along with Zach Wilson, have dominated the tops of superflex rookie drafts so far this offseason, and for good reason. Wilson, however, was usurped in this mock by top 2022 RB prospect, Breece Hall. Wilson is viewed by many as the riskiest QB from this year’s draft, yet it’s hard to not like the fit with him in a Shanahan-style system. Getting the potential 1.01 (and consensus RB1) in 2022 at 1.08 looks to be a safe investment. It’s worth considering that due to the relative weakness of the ‘22 class, the analytically robust profile of Breece may give him an additional value boost this time next year, when stacked up against the inferior profiles of his 2022 peers. It didn’t take long after for the consensus 1.01 in Devy to go off the board, and in mocks similar to this one, you’re likely to see him go ahead of Breece. Bijan needs no summation. He and the pick after him, DJU, are highly likely to be Top-3 rookie draft selections in 2023. Mac Jones closes out round one as the unsexy QB value pick of this year’s rookie class.
ROUND 2
2.01 Jason – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma (QB1 – 2022)
2.02 Kyle – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins (WR2 – 2021)
2.03 Cody – Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles (WR3 – 2021)
2.04 Greg – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech (RB2 – 2023)
2.05 Brad – Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (RB3 – 2021)
2.06 Clay – Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn (RB3 – 2023)
2.07 Jason – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State (WR1 – 2022)
2.08 Kyle – Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M (RB2 – 2022)
2.09 Cody – Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens (WR4 – 2021)
2.10 Greg – Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU (WR2 – 2023)
2.11 Brad – Elijah Moore, WR, Jets (WR5 – 2021)
2.12 Clay – Rondale Moore, WR, Cardinals (WR6 – 2021)
Round two consisted of just one QB. That was the 2022 QB1 and presumed first pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Spencer Rattler. The majority of the round consisted of wide receivers, seven in total. Five of them were just drafted in the Top 50 of the 2021 NFL Draft. The changing of the NFL WR prototype couldn’t be better summarized than by this quintet. Three of the five are 5’9” or shorter and all weigh 190-pounds or less. The draft capital is in the bag for these five, and four will be tethered to recent NFL First Round QBs. The other two receivers were the first WRs off the board from the following two draft classes. While the draft capital hasn’t been secured for Wilson or Boutte, the third round would be the floor for both of these guys, with first-round selections their most likely outcomes. There were four backs taken in round two. Two of the top-tier backs from the ‘23 class were selected. The third back off the board in the ‘21 NFL Draft, Javonte Williams, was sandwiched by the young, talented duo. Lastly, the RB2 in next year’s class, Isaiah Spiller, went off at 2.08. Spiller is being mocked in some first-round drafts but is more than likely selected in the range that we just saw Javonte Williams taken by the Broncos at pick 35. This is an impressive group of players that comprised round two of this mock.
ROUND 3
3.01 Jason – David Bell, WR, Purdue (WR2 – 2022)
3.02 Kyle – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas (WR3 – 2022)
3.03 Cody – Trey Sermon, RB, 49ers (RB4 – 2021)
3.04 Greg – Sam Howell, QB, UNC (QB2 – 2022)
3.05 Brad – Terrace Marshall, WR, Panthers (WR7 – 2021)
3.06 Clay – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State (WR4 – 2022)
3.07 Jason – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (QB2 – 2023)
3.08 Kyle – Kadarius Toney, WR, Giants (WR8 – 2021)
3.09 Cody – Michael Carter, RB, Jets (RB5 – 2021)
3.10 Greg – Dyami Brown, WR, Football Team (WR9 – 2021)
3.11 Brad – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions (WR10 – 2021)
3.12 Clay – Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama (RB4 – 2023)
Two quarterbacks came off the board in the third round of this mock. Both guys were selected as the QB2 in the 2022 and 2023 classes. For the second consecutive round, seven receivers were drafted. That makes fifteen total receivers taken in the first three rounds, and it also shows the quality of the WRs that are being infused into the league right now. Are things too saturated at the position for all of them to make their mark in the NFL fantasy-scape? Time will tell. The disdain for the Giants’ first-round pick, Kadarius Toney, was evident in this mock. He was the third receiver taken in the ’21 NFL Draft but the eighth WR selected in his draft class. The other three receivers from the recent group of NFL inductees were second, third, and fourth-round NFL picks. All of them landed well, but there is significantly more risk in taking receivers drafted in rounds three and four of the NFL Draft than with a first-round pick. Next year’s WR class looks like another good group, and we saw Bell, Burks, and Olave go as the WR2-WR4 in their class. All three guys have first-round NFL Draft potential, while none of them should make it past round three next April. The fourth and fifth backs selected in this year’s NFL Draft were taken in order here, with Sermon going before Carter. Sermon landed in San Francisco as a third-round pick. I don’t think there would be many outcomes for his career that would surprise anyone, based on his skillset and the RB usage of backs in the Shanahan scheme. While it is typically bad business to take an RB that made it outside of day two, Michael Carter is both the perfect fit and best back on the Jets’ roster. He will fight an uphill battle from a probabilistic standpoint, but he probably should be shown a bit more favor than your typical day three back. Both he and ARSB were picked in round four, but these were arguably two of the top spots for an RB and WR to land. The last pick of the round was Alabama’s rising sophomore, Jase McClellan. While JMC could end up in an old-school Alabama time-share, he should be considered amongst the most talented backs that Saban has recruited in Tuscaloosa.
ROUND 4
4.01 Jason – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers (TE2 – 2021)
4.02 Kyle – Jermaine Burton, WR, Georgia (WR2 – 2023)
4.03 Cody – George Pickens, WR, Georgia (WR5 – 2021)
4.04 Greg – Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame (RB3 – 2022)
4.05 Brad – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (TE1 – 2023)
4.06 Clay – Kevin Harris, RB, South Carolina (RB4 – 2022)
4.07 Jason – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (WR3 – 2023)
4.08 Kyle – Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma (RB5 – 2022)
4.09 Cody – Amari Rodgers, WR, Packers (WR11 – 2021)
4.10 Greg – Arik Gilbert, TE, LSU (TE2 – 2023)
4.11 Brad – TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State (RB1 – 2024)
4.12 Clay – Kendall Milton, RB, Georgia (RB5 – 2023)
As the rookie draft capital wanes thin in round four, the Devy picks start flying off the board. After Freiermuth and Rodgers, very few day two skill position rookies remain. This makes plenty of sense, as day three skill position players have very poor analytical hit rates. A diverse plethora of Devy picks begin flying off the board beginning with Jermaine Burton at wide receiver. With the ACL injury to George Pickens, arguably no player is more primed to see their stock rise throughout the 2021 college season than Burton. He went one pick ahead of his Bulldog predecessor, and I think that Burton over Pickens is the correct ordering at this juncture. While the younger Devy backs of this round, Henderson and Milton, almost certainly have more upside than the likes of Kyren and Kevin, they’re yet to put up meaningful FBS production. 5-star running backs are often a great bet in Devy, but we’ve seen recent 5-star recruits Trey Sanders and John Emery Jr. fail to live up to the billing thus far. Arguments to take Henderson and Milton higher are certainly warranted, but it all depends on your risk tolerance level, as we’ve seen what Kevin Harris and Kyren Williams can do as feature backs in power five conferences. Michael Mayer and Arik Gilbert are truly in a tier of their own amongst Devy tight ends, and their potential to become first-round NFL Draft picks make their selections absolutely justifiable in this round.
ROUND 5
5.01 Jason – Jerrion Ealy, RB, Ole Miss (RB6 – 2022)
5.02 Kyle – John Metchie, WR, Alabama (WR6 – 2022
5.03 Cody – Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson (WR7 – 2022)
5.04 Greg – Drake London, WR, USC (WR8 – 2022)
5.05 Brad – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss (QB3 – 2022)
5.06 Clay – Zach Evans, RB, TCU (RB6 – 2023)
5.07 Jason – Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma (WR4 – 2023)
5.08 Kyle – Jalen Wydermyer, TE, Texas A&M (TE1 – 2022)
5.09 Cody – Rakim Jarrett, WR, Maryland (WR5 – 2023)
5.10 Greg – Nico Collins, WR, Texans (WR12 – 2021)
5.11 Brad – Josh Downs, WR, UNC (WR5 – 2023)
5.12 Clay – DeaMonte Trayanum, RB, Arizona Strizona State (RB7 – 2023)
With the exception of Nico Collins, the fifth round turned into a Devy draft with good value on players inside our top 40. From the looks of it, we each set out to get our guys. I can’t speak for everyone, but I took one more crack at QB with Matt Corral. Jalen Wydermyer likely got the nod because of the TE premium format. It appears everyone took players that they believe have more upside than 2021 rookies with decent draft capital like Tutu Atwell, Josh Palmer, Rhamondre Stevenson, Anthony Schwartz, and D’Wayne Eskridge.
