Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
It’s calculated as follows: ANY/A = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown) – sack yards) / (passing attempts + sacks)”
Here are the top 10 performers from week 3 of the CFB season out of 133 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
KJ Jefferson sitting atop the weekly QB chart was a shock to me. Heavily aided by a 80 yard TD by Treylon Burks that included over 80 yards of YAC. Kenny Pickett put on a show in a loss to WMU. His 6 TDs were tops for the week. Sam Howell has had back-to-back top-notch performances after a very bad Week 1. Howell has added over 200 yards rushing over the past two games. The QB on the other side of the field was Brennan Armstrong who slid inside the top ten again. He’s finished top ten all three weeks this year. Armstrong has been great as a passer. He’s been the most valuable passer on the season so far. It was great to see Kaleb Eleby bounce back with a top 20 showing. He had a few spectacular throws in his upset victory over Pitt. Jaxson Dart finished with a top 30 day in relief of Kedon Slovis. Dart wasn’t scared to sling it around. He was 12-24 on passes over ten yards and completed five passes over 20 yards down the field. Including six “Big Time Throws” against Washington State. I’ve been on the Dart train is about a year now.
Man, this is getting sad at this point. Michael Penix Jr. finished in the bottom ten once again. He’s been painfully bad to this point. All three of his INTs on Saturday were brutally bad. Penix Jr. has been the least valuable passer for the year so far. Hunter Johnson completed six passes on Saturday to Wildcats and completed another three to Blue Devil defenders. Following Week 1 Johnson looked like a serviceable QB but has been really bad in the last two weeks. Desmond Ridder didn’t look good at all in Cincinnati’s win over IU. Ridder finished bottom 25 on the week and struggled passing down field as he has for his career. Ridder was 6-18 on passes more than ten yards down the field. Carson Strong had a well below-average game against Kansas State. Bo Nix bounced back to reality after facing Akron and Alabama State. He struggled down field much like Ridder, Nix was only 5-14 on passes over ten yards. Spencer Rattler finished in the middle of the pack. Another wishy-washy performance from Rattler. The preseason perceived QB1 needs to step it up.
2. 2022 QB Class
After three weeks I can’t say I’m too thrilled with this upcoming QB class. Spencer Rattler has struggled a ton so far. He’s made 0 “Big Time Throws” to 5 “Turnover Worthy Throws”. Rattler has elite arm talent but there just seems to be something missing right now. Sam Howell has bounced back after a terrible Week 1 showing. I’m not confident in Howell’s NFL outlook. He’ll most likely be a first round selection but I don’t see a franchise QB right now. I’ve been rowing the Carson Strong boat for almost a year now. He’s got elite arm talent but lacks the mobility of a top QB. Even with superior talent on the outside he still has some stinker games like he just did against Kansas State. The Demond Ridder draft hype is a joke. He struggles with accuracy down field and handling pressure. Those issues don’t magically work themselves out once the defenders get bigger and faster and the throw windows shrink at the pro level. Will Levis? Give me a freaking break. Malik Willis has some really nice traits but he still can’t dominate subpar competition like he should. His numbers have been slightly above-average facing Campbell, Troy, and Old Dominion. Kaleb Eleby was a hot name for me all offseason. He struggled against Michigan albeit WMU was totally outmanned. His Illinois State performance was average and he made a few dazzling throws in the upset over Pitt. I want to believe, I just need to see him be more dominant. Without question Matt Corral has looked the best of any ’22 QB. He hasn’t been tested by a legit defense yet but he’s the lone QB giving me hope right now. As long as his decision making stays on track.
This 2022 QB class isn’t looking pretty as we sit. If I’m an NFL franchise looking for my franchise QB I don’t think this is the year. The cost of an early round QB is just too much to invest in a guy at the moment.
3. Disappointments
I don’t think there’s been a bigger disappointment to date than Clemson’s DJU. The Tigers offense has been brutal and DJU hasn’t helped much. According to ANY/A DJU is bottom 5 worse in the country of QBs with a minimum of 40 passing attempts. I wasn’t as high on Eric Gray as a lot of people but I still expected a much bigger season than this. Speaking of the Sooners, Marvin Mims hasn’t dazzled as expected. His 2020 success was going to be hard to duplicate. Mims production in such a limited role was due to regress a bit but he’s almost been nonexistent so far. Mims does lead the Sooners in Air Yards so all is not lost just yet. Jahmyr Gibbs flashed almost immediately in 2020 for the Yellow Jackets as a rusher and pass receiver. Himself and the rest of the Yellow Jackets offense haven’t been what was expected. Other than Gibbs a lot of second year backs have yet to take a leap. Jase McClellan was always going to be stuck behind Brian Robinson Jr. but I expected him to carve out more of a committee role. Same with UGA Kendall Milton. With the absence of Kevin Harris, MarShawn Lloyd was expected to showcase his talent. That hasn’t been the case. He’s averaging sub 4-yards per carry in a subpart South Carolina offense.
4. Yards Per Team Passing Attempt
A lot of names that you’d expect to see sit atop the top 20 in YPTPA. Jaivon Heiligh has been a dominating force for Coastal Carolina so far. He also leads the nation in Yards Per Route Ran. Josh Downs, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Calvin Austin were all guys that DW has been very high on all offseason. Guys like Khalil Shakir, Jalen Tolbert, and Deven Thompkins were guys I heavily targeted in C2C and CFF drafts this summer. All have been highly productive. Targeting college producers is never a bad thing in C2C. More times than not they turn into pro prospects as well. I’ve been riding the Jayden Reed bandwagon going on three years now and its great to see him sitting in the top 20. His Spartan teammate Jalen Nailor is another one that I’ve been touting for a number of years and has done quite well as well.
5. I Got Five On It
Year: 7-8
Last Week: 2-3
Lines Via BETMGM Indiana
Virginia/Wake Forest o68.5: UVA has been the best passing team in the nation so far according to ANY/A. Brennan Armstrong has been a deadly passer for the last two weeks. I expect both teams to be able to move up and down the field with some relative ease. Should be a fun and entertaining Friday night game.
Illinois (+11): Following loses to Notre Dame. Florida State and Toledo both face planted the following weekend. I think Purdue keeps this trend going especially if they are without David Bell. I expect the Boilermakers to win but much closer than the 11 point spread.
SMU (+9.5): This line is a bit confusing to me. Most ratings systems that I viewed have this closer to a 5 point spread even with home field advantage. SMU has a number of passing options for Tanner Mordecai. SMU can score with the best of them. I think this’ll be a game that is decided by 5-7 points.
Kansas State (+6): I grabbed this earlier in the week at +8.5. Oklahoma State’s offense is very poor right now. I wouldn’t expect them to score enough to run away from K-State. The Wildcats held Carson Strong in check last week so it’ll only be logically that Spencer Sanders lights them up this weekend.
Buffalo (-13.5): The Bulls gave Coastal Carolina almost everything that they could handle last week. And they hung around with Nebraska for the majority of the game. ODU is among the worst teams in the country right now. I rate this game closer to a 18.5 point spread. I’ll ride with the Bulls on the road.
