Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
It’s calculated as follows: ANY/A = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown) – sack yards) / (passing attempts + sacks)”
Here are the top 10 performers from week 2 of the CFB season out of 138 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
Not a lot of big name QBs find their way onto the top 10 passers of Week 2. Jake Haener has been ripping up through three games for the Bulldogs. Haener already has two of the ten best performances of the year. Wow, I don’t think the numbers do justice just how unbelieve Stetson Bennett’s day was. Bennett threw for over 25 yards per attempt and 5 TDs. His 34.45 ANY/A was the highest I’ve ever seen on at least 10 attempts. Only 11 attempts on the day downgraded his value unfortunately. The only tFR QB to start a game this fall, Seth Hennigan was balling out on Saturday Night. Grant Gunnell might have just lost his job for good. I caught the first 20 mins of the UVA/Illinois game and Brennan Armstrong caught my attention. He was slinging it around and has been very accurate on deep passes thus far. He’s completed 71% of his passes ten yards or further down the field to begin 2021. Third best in the nation on at least 15 attempts. Sam Howell bounced back against Georgia State after being a bottom ten performer in Week 1.
After praising Hunter Johnson for having a really solid Week 1 against Michigan State, he pays me back by having a bottom 20 showing against Indiana State. ECU might have pulled off the upset of South Carolina if Holton Ahlers didn’t have the worst QB performance of the week. Brock Purdy once again didn’t show up in a marquee matchup. Purdy finished with the third worst game of the week. What a stark contrast in the UGA/UAB game. Bennett had one of the highest ANY/A’s that I’ve ever seen for a week. While UAB QB Tyler Johnston had a -7.0 ANY/A. One of the worst performances that I’ve ever charted. The McKenzie Milton fairy tale didn’t last long. He finished in the bottom 20 in Week 2 and was a big factor in allowing JSU to stay close during the game. Malik Willis had a wishy-washy performance against Troy. He finished just below-average on the week. Not what you expect out of a “top-ranked” QB going against Troy. DJU had another below-average week. Not a great start to the season for the young QB. Michael Penix had another mind-boggling game. He somehow only managed 4.3 YPA against Idaho! Week 1 darling Will Levis finished just barely over average on the week. The hype surrounding Levis has already gotten completely out of hand.
Speaking of UGA, their defense has been lights out against the pass. DJU and Tyler Johnston both rank in the bottom 13 of all QBs performances so far this year (286 qualifying QB performances). On the year UGA has allowed a -0.34 ANY/A on 54 attempts compared to UConn who’s sitting 10.48 ANY/A on 95 attempts.
2. Early Impressers
Erik Ezukanma: The fourth-year WR at Texas Tech has been dominant to start the 2021 season. He currently ranks 3rd in the nation at 6.7083 Yards Per Route Ran and has accounted for almost 76% of the Red Raiders Air Yards in the passing game. Not to mention he’s tallied 324 receiving yards while TT has only thrown for 394 yards to date. A whopping 82% Market Share of Passing Yards. Ezukanma isn’t a name that I kept tabs on this offseason but his start to the 2021 season is undeniable to this point.
Brock Bowers: Bowers is another prospect that I didn’t pay a lot of attention to this offseason. tFR TEs don’t produce much and they already have some talent on the roster so his early breakout wasn’t expected. Bowers has already trounced the production of the most overrated prospect in Devy in Darnell “TE1” Washington. It took only two games to surpass what Washington did in a full season in 2020. Not to mention Bowers clocked in at over 21MPH during his TD score against UAB last weekend.
Jaden Bray: Bray has been one of the lone tFR WRs to make an impact in 2021 so far. Sitting at 6-136-1 after two games, Bray has seen a lot of action in two games. Bryson Green has seen a ton of early playing time as well but just hasn’t got the production to go along with it yet.
Jelani Woods: Woods was banged up in Week 1 for UVA but he put on an early show against Illinois in Week 2. Misused at Oklahoma State, the grad transfer has made an instant impact for UVA. His size will have NFL Scouts drooling.
Tyler Badie: The veteran Missouri back has been great in the passing game. Hauling in 13-128-2 in two games. He’ll be an NFL role player.
3. Deep Passing
We are two weeks into the season lets see who’s been a good passer on balls traveling at least 10 yards in the air
Above are some notable QBs. All have some sort of NFL Draft hype or are just surprising performers.
Overall Brennan Armstrong sits third in the nation in completion percentage (minimum 15 attempts). Can’t say I expected that after completing just 43% in 2020. This week against UNC will be an interesting test to see if he holds up. So far 21% of his passes have been “Big Time Throws” (a PFF stat). Desmond Ridder sits much higher on this list than he did last year but matchups against Miami (OH) and Murray State are great ways to pad some stats. The next month of games will tell us if he’s truly improved. Twitter darling Will Levis has had early success but much of that came against ULM. He was only 4/8 against Missouri including an interception. For the second straight year, Spencer Rattler is off to a “slow start”. He’s had 0 BTT with 3 “Turnover Worthy Passes”. Only Emory Jones has more TWP amongst this group so far. Malik Willis thus far has shown a small improvement but he’s only faced Campbell and Troy to date. Not a lot of NFL caliber defenders on the field in those. Not to mention his almost 20% Turnover Worthy Pass rate. Matt Corral is about 10% lower this year compared to 2020. Still a very small sample size but the loss of Elijah Moore seems to be having a small affect on Corral. Joe Milton was sub 40% in 2020 now he’s sitting at an amazingly bad 20%. DJU has been brutal down the field but the majority can be accredited to the UGA defense. If he continues to struggle against Georgia Tech this weekend we might have a problem. Surprising to see Bryce Young sitting so low on this list right now. Been seeing claims that he’s “light years” ahead of DJU. Taulia Tagovailoa showed some improvements Week 1 against WVU but struggled against Howard going 3/8 down field. Taulia amongst the worst in the nation in 2020 on down field passing attempts. B1G darlings Graham Mertz and Michael Penix Jr. have been downright brutal in their down field passing abilities in 2021. Both have had the benefit one of cupcake matchup so far and still haven’t been able to capitalize on it. CJ Stroud is among the nation leaders in BTT. Claims flew around Saturday that OSU should have turned to another QB despite Stroud being among the best passers on the weekend. Stroud is a pretty good QB and still has plenty room for growth accuracy wise. LSU’s Max Johnson has had a lot more early struggles than I personally expected. A sub 50% completion rate and only 1 BTT on his resume.
4. Yards After Contact
rFR Brandon Thomas has had a great start to his season. He leads the nation in YAC per Att (minimum 10 att) after two weeks. Facing Nicholls State and Arkansas State helps a bit but facing an SEC defense in Mississippi State will be a great test this weekend. After dominating Northwestern opening weekend it’s no surprise to see Kenneth Walker high up on the list. Zach Charbonnet leads about every meaningful RB stat right now. He’s amongst the leaders in Avoided Tackles, Breakaway Runs, and Explosive Yards. Let’s see if he can keep the ball rolling against Fresno State. Off-the-radar senior D’vonte Price has had a hot start after a 2020 season that saw him have over a 40% DR. Price is already being eyed by the Senior Bowl. In a very limited viewing, Wisconsin’s Isaac Guerendo looks intriguing. He’s a bigger back with really good speed. He seems to be flipping between the 2nd and 3rd Badger back so far this year. Miyan Williams has looked solid, but I’m not sure he’s much of an NFL prospect. His lack of speed isn’t very appealing.
5. I Got Five On It
Year: 5-5
Last Week: 2-3
Lines Via BETMGM Indiana
Maryland (-7): This is a very uneasy pick for me. I don’t have the slightest bit of trust in Taulia but, UVA shredded Illinois in the down field passing game last week. Taulia has still struggled a bit on passes of at least 10 yards down the field in 2021. Maryland ranks top 15 in passing success rate while Illinois defense ranks 116th in the nation.
Cincinnati (-4): I really don’t believe IU is very good. Starting QB Michael Penix has been hot garbage to start the season. The Bearcat defense should continue to make him struggle. If Cincy really thinks they are CFP contenders they should be able to beat a middling B1G East team on the road. Cincinnati is a short drive to Bloomington, I expect to see a very mixed crowd.
Florida State (+5): FSU has been very unlucky to this point. They are 0-2 but have won the postgame win expectancy in both games. I’ll ride with the 5.5 point cushion (line has moved since writing) and FSU getting some much needed good luck. The Seminoles really need to look to Jordan Travis again. McKenzie Milton was very poor against Jacksonville State.
Liberty (-27.5): I nabbed this earlier in the week at -26.5 but I’ll roll with the current number for the article. This game grades out for me right around the 26 point mark but I think Liberty has blowout potential with Malik Willis facing one of the worst teams in the nation.
Marshall (-10): Marshall has been one of the most dominant teams to start the 2021 season. Facing Navy and an FCS foe isn’t the stiffest of competition. ECU is coming off a close loss to South Carolina so I can see that loss having a lasting effect into Week 3. The Thundering Herd offense currently ranks top 5 in every meaningful success rate category.
