Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
It’s calculated as follows: ANY/A = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown) – sack yards) / (passing attempts + sacks)”
Here are the top 10 performers from week 1 of the CFB season out of 138 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
The big news from Week 1 wasn’t who performed well but who didn’t. In the bottom 15 performers, you had Graham Mertz, Sam Howell, Michael Penix Jr., DJ Uiagalelei, and Dustin Krum. I haven’t believed the draft hype surrounding guys like Mertz, Penix Jr., and Krum. In Krum’s case, his team was severely mismatched going against Texas A&M. Mertz and Penix Jr. faced off against upper-level P5 defenses, but if you want to be a legit NFL prospect that’s who you need to perform well against. DJU faced off against quite possibly the best defense in the nation so I can’t downgrade him too much. Other names like Emory Jones, JT Daniels, and D’Eriq King all finished in the lower 20 as well. While Daniels and King faced premiere defenses, Jones went against FAU. Yikes, for the first round dark horse, which was always a bullshit evaluation. Spencer Rattler being below-average wasn’t something I expected to see entering the season. Dylan Morris had the second-worst score of the week and that’s how a supposed P12 contender loses to an FCS team.
The top ten consisted of four transfer QBs making their team debuts. Bailey Zappe and Tanner Mordecai both wowed with 7 TDs apiece. Both played against FCS foes though. Will Levis is the first name on the list that actually faced an FBS opponent, if you can call ULM an FBS team. CJ Stroud is the only name to make the top ten in Week 1 that played a somewhat legit defense. It started off shaky for Stroud but some long second-half TDs saved his night. In relief of James Blackman, Layne Hatcher went 12/12 for 4 TDs and just missed the top ten. If he would have had just a few more attempts he would have easily made it in (the value weighs passing attempts). His 19.17 was the second-highest number on the week. Bryce Young’s first career start notched him just a few spots outside the top ten. Young is one of three maybe four QBs inside the top 20 that played above-average defenses in week 1. It was an impressive showing when you consider Young was pressured on 21 of his 40 dropbacks. While his ending number was just middle of the pack Week 1, Hunter Johnson of Northwestern looked like a serviceable B1G QB, something I never thought I’d say after his 2019 performance. Carson Strong had a solid top 60 showing going against California. Cal traditionally has a high-level defense so that’s a great sign that he performed well against the best defense that Nevada will see all year.
My dark horse QB Kaleb Eleby came in just below-average, not bad when you consider how outmanned WMU was against Michigan. According to PFF, Eleby faced pressure on 17 of his 42 dropbacks. WMU’s pass blocking was ranked 70th PFF on the week. When KE didn’t face pressure he completed 17 of his 25 attempts. I’m excited to see Eleby’s continued development. He performed slightly better than I expected against UM.
2. I Told You So!
It was a long offseason and a lot of subjects were covered. What was I right about?
I’ve been on the Blake Corum train all offseason and he looked like the best back on the Wolverines Saturday. 2 TDs and 130 total yards and Corum showed his big play ability. The much-hyped freshmen Donovan Edwards didn’t see work until garage time.
Not a single tFR QB started week 1! Very on brand for my “your freshmen won’t perform like you think they will take.” After Washington’s loss to FCS Montana, Sam Huard might be getting fast-tracked though. JJ McCarthy had a spectacular TD throw but veteran QB Cade McNamara did what he needed to do to keep that job for a bit longer. Actually, I don’t recall a single tFR skill player making a major impact during week 1.
Michael Penix Jr. is hella overrated. Three INTs and a blowout loss to Iowa wasn’t what IU fans expected. 2021 is a reality check after a very luck-driven 2020 season.
Quinn Ewers isn’t playing a meaningful snap in 2021. Ewers didn’t even travel to Minnesota. He’s OSU QB4 right now. He showed up late to camp and missed additional time. He’s not ready.
Carson Strong is a really good QB. Back when I was the only one tweeting about Strong and #Devy last November I predicted him to be a first-round QB. He looked really good against a top-level P5 defense.
Graham Mertz isn’t living up to the hype. I was going bonkers when Mertz beat up on Illinois last year in his debut like everybody else. His season-ending stretch was horrid and that continued in week 1 of 2021. He’s just not that good of a QB. Mertz has a looong way to develop to being a legit NFL prospect. It’s not going to happen. Can he be a fine CFB QB, sure. NFL QB, nah.
Emory Jones isn’t a first-round talent. First-rounders don’t struggle against FAU. The take of Jones being a top ten pick was just pure BS.
Oh yeah, and Notre Dame started the right QB ;).
3. Week 1 Standouts
Michael Mayer: Looked like an absolute beast Sunday night. People really thought Darnell Washington was a better TE than Mayer (Haha!). Finished the game with 13 targets. Double-digit targets should be a regular occurrence for the sophomore tight end. Mayer Just has to shore up the drops. My naked eye caught at least three from the FSU game.
Kenneth Walker: Walker had a major breakout Friday Night. I had my questions surrounding how he’d produce in 2021 due to MSU’s horrible line play in 2020. Walker should be able to keep his hot start alive against Youngstown State.
Drake London: London had a dominant showing against SJSU. He will continue to be Kedon Slovis’ top-option in a pass-friendly offense. London has top 50 overall draft potential.
Pierre Strong: You might be asking yourself who? Strong is a veteran back for South Dakota State and he was a key part in the upset victory over Colorado State. He rushed for 138 yards and 2 TDs on 13 carries. He’s a two-time 1,000-yard rusher at the FCS level. He caught my eye during the Spring FCS season and continued to impress now facing stiffer competition.
Brandon Thomas: Had a nice game as Memphis’ RB1. He’s a powerful runner that’s going to be really difficult for G5 defenders to handle.
4. Do We Believe the Hype?
Will Levis, QB, UK: Levis had a great showing against possibly the worst defense in all of FBS. Sure he looked nice and made some big throws. I need to see a lot more out of Levis before I believe the hype. But I do love the new and improved UK offense. I’ve had my eye on this new system since the new OC was hired.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida: Yes, he had an amazing run against FAU defenders in garbage time. We’ve known AR15 is a freaky athlete at the QB position, but can he do actual QB things that the NFL needs and wants? I still have plenty of doubts surrounding his ability as a passer. A 70-yard rush isn’t alleviating those doubts. We knew he could run, this isn’t a new development.
Kevin Austin, WR, Notre Dame: I think this is finally the year for Austin. As a tFR in 2018, he showed flashes in a limited role. 2019 was ruined by a year long suspension and 2020 saw KA break his foot twice. He looked really good against FSU on Sunday night. The Irish look to have a threat playmaker on the outside and a QB willing to go down field with a bit more frequency.
5. I Got Five On It
Year: 3-2
Last Week: 3-2
Lines Via BETMGM Indiana
Coastal Carolina (-25): I grabbed this number at -27 earlier in the week thinking it’d grow over the 28 point mark. So I’ve already lost some closing line value on my actual bet but for the article, I’ll roll with the current number as I write this. CCU should beat up on a KU team that needed a late comeback to defeat South Dakota. This is a line that I personally expected to be closer to 30.
North Carolina State (-2): NC State dominated USF week 1 while the Bulldogs needed some late magic to beat LA Tech. NC State feels like a team Vegas hasn’t quite caught up with just yet. Traveling to Starkville at night won’t be easy for the Wolfpack, but I’ll eat the 2.5 points (line has since moved after my bet).
Iowa (+4): After week 1 performances it almost feels like the wrong team is favored (SP+ agrees). ISU struggled mightily against Northern Iowa while the Hawkeyes dominated an all-be-it overrated IU team. Dating back to 2011, six of the nine matches have been decided by less than a TD. Iowa feels like the better team today so I’ll gladly take a 4.5 point cushion (line has moved).
FIU (-1.5): FIU had a dominating WK1 showing against an FCS foe. SP+ has this game rated FIU by 11 points. That’s a massive difference. I’ll roll with my gut and SP+ on this one.
Buffalo (+14): This is a game I’ve had my eyes on all summer. If Buffalo hadn’t lost Lance Leipold, I’d feel even more confident in this one. Buffalo is a really solid and pesky team. Hoping this line gets over the 14 point mark, so I’ll try holding out for that number as long as I can.
