Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Conference Odds: CUSA
CUSA is the conference that I’m the least familiar with, but let’s give it a shot. The Thundering Herd (+250) come in as the favorites. With the change at the head of the program, I’m pretty uncertain what we have with Marshall. One certainty for Marshall is that they have the best QB in the conference. While Grant Wells got extremely overhyped after a big showing week 1 last year against Eastern Kentucky, he’s the best the conference has to offer right now. I don’t like the uncertainty with a first-time head coach especially if I have to bet on Marshall as the league favorite. I’d much prefer the slightly better odds with a UAB (+275) or UTSA (+300).
The team that really caught my eye is UTSA. They have a solid QB in Frank Harris and have the best RB in CUSA with Sincere McCormick, and they bring back the 2nd most production (91%) in the conference. I love what Head Coach Jeff Traylor is doing in San Antonio. UTSA has made a major jump in recruiting over the last five years. From 2012-16 they ranked 114th overall and from 2017-21 they’ve leaped up to 81st. That’s actually 16th among all G5 schools over the last five years. Traylor had a ton of success as a high school football school coach in Texas and has used that to his advantage when recruiting Texas. If Traylor isn’t lured away to a bigger gig, UTSA could become a CUSA powerhouse in the next two to three years. The Roadrunners and Georgia State are my favorite up-and-coming G5 programs.
UAB (+275) loses one of the program’s best backs ever in Spencer Brown but young DeWayne McBride did an excellent filling in as the backup in 2020. Averaging nearly 10 yards per carry on 47 attempts from last year. They also bring back veteran signal-caller Tyler Johnston III – “Played in five games with four starts…Started the first two games of the season and the last two games of the season…Missed the middle of the season due to an injury…Threw for 843 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception…Returned to the starting lineup for UAB’s two championship games and threw for 470 yards and four touchdowns in wins at Rice and Marshall”
Title Game: UTSA Vs Marshall
My Pick: UTSA
Dark Horse: FAU
2. Conference Odds: Big 12
Shocker, the Sooners (-143) are the Big 12’s favorite. They enter the season with the most talented roster and are above average within the conference with 76% returning production. Spencer Rattler is the top QB in the country. He has plenty of talented names at the receiver position but somebody has to step up and become the alpha. Despite all the four and five-star recruits at the position, Rattler dealt with 21 dropped passes in 2020. He gets two new shiny toys to hand the ball off too with the addition of transfer Eric Gray and Kennedy Brooks returning after sitting out 2020. It’s hard to see the Sooners not taking the Big 12 crown once again. The lack of experience behind Rattler might be the biggest concern if something happens to the future top NFL Draft pick. It also helps that the Sooners defense really turned it around in 2020. If they can continue to build upon their COVID year performance they’ll be a playoff contender.
For the second straight year Iowa State (+225) is the sexy dark horse pick for the playoffs (is it really a dark horse if it’s everybody’s dark horse?). I like the Cyclones to finish second in the conference. I expect them to slip up a game or two before the Big 12 Title and miss out on the playoffs. They have the second best back in the nation Breece Hall, only behind Bijan Robinson. If ISU can somehow sneak into the playoffs, Hall will find his way to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. Outside of Hall, I don’t think the Cyclones have enough playmakers to compete with OU and most likely lose another game to a lesser team.
The only other team talent-wise that could compete for the conference crown is Texas (+600). I don’t trust Steve Sarkisian or the Longhorns to consistently win yet. I’m not ready to drink the Sarkisian Burnt Orange Kool-Aid either. His USC teams were pretty average and the talent that he had at Alabama was ridiculous. Plenty of OCs could succeed with 2 1st round QBs, 4 1st round WRs, a 1st round RB, and a handful of 1st round OL as well. You’d have to be an absolute idiot to not succeed as the Tide’s OC for the last two years. I think the UT turnaround project is going to take a bit longer than everybody expects. Especially if they get early access into the SEC. At that point, they turn into just another Tennessee Vols. Hoping to catch wins against the SECs cellar dwellers and trying their best to keep it within 3 scores of the big dogs.
Title Game: Oklahoma Vs Iowa State
My pick: Oklahoma
Dark Horse: Texas, I guess
3. Quinn Ewers
First off, Ewers isn’t starting a game this year outside of an injury/COVID situation. He’s way behind at this point compared to the other QBs on campus. For freshmen QBs that enroll in June, it’s a near impossible task to learn the offensive playbook and adjust to the college game and earn a starting job. Ewers has even less time around the program and learning the playbook by showing up two months later than normal freshmen. Yes, Ewers is a tremendous prospect but even elite prospects still need to learn the playbook and adjust to the speed of the game. CJ Stroud has been on OSU’s campus for about 18 months at this point. That’s 18 months’ worth of practice, time to learn the playbook, and time in a college strength program. Stroud is no slouch in his own right so his head start on Ewers will be very difficult to make up. If OSU is rolling and Stroud is performing well, Ewers isn’t taking over the job. The real question in my opinion is if Ewers can snag the QB2 job. Jake Miller is in the same boat as CJ Stroud with being on campus for 18 months and Kyle McCord has been in Columbus since January.
JT Daniels faced a similar situation at USC. The big difference being Daniels showed up in June and was set to arrive on campus early since the prior December. Giving him a much bigger head start on grasping the playbook than Ewers has at Ohio State. Combine that with only having to beat out Jack Sears and not two other 5-star QBs and a lowly 4-star. The odds are not in Ewers favor. What happens when/if CJ Stroud balls out? There’s really no reason why Stroud shouldn’t have a great 2021 season. Following the 2022 spring, if Ewers isn’t the man, is he packing his bags for greener pastures? I believe the early arrival of Ewers actually hurts OSU more than it helps them in the long haul. OSU gains nothing in the 2021 season by adding Ewers. It then eliminates the buffer between the QB classes and ultimately leads to more transfers. I believe Ewers will be a starting QB in a uniform other than Ohio State in 2022.
4. Rising Senior Spotlight
Walker Howard committed to his in-state and dream school of LSU last summer. Howard’s father was former LSU player Jamie Howard. Howard has just one year of starting experience under his belt. Howard committed to the Tigers before ever even starting a game in high school. In 2020, Howard tossed for over 3,400 yards and 42 TDs to 5 INTs. All while completing nearly two-thirds of his passing attempts. At the beginning of April, Howard punched his ticket to the Elite 11 Finals for this Summer. “Howard measured a shade under 6-feet-1 and 186 pounds. He posted times of 4.63 seconds in the 40-yard-dash and 4.1 seconds in the short shuttle, with a 34.9” vertical jump.
“Howard generated impressive zip on his throws, especially during the earlier drills that involved more traditional drops,” 247Sports national recruiting analyst Gabe Brooks wrote after his showing at the camp. “That snap allowed Howard to combat the wind for most of the day and make consistently accurate throws. His delivery stayed consistent, and the accuracy followed as he did a good job staying on top of the ball.”
Howard will never be the biggest guy, but he’s got enough size that it won’t hinder his upside. Needs to add mass and strength to his frame. Howard is listed by 247Sports as a Dual-Threat QB but he’s not much of a runner in high school. He possesses enough speed and athleticism to be an escape artist in the pocket. He rarely tucks the ball and runs, but he’s good at evading a rush and keeping his eyes downfield to make an off-platform throw. Accurate thrower on the move. Potential to be an above-average QB rusher at LSU if they choose to deploy him as a rusher. Howard has good arm strength and still has room to improve as he physically develops in college.
Howard has the tendency to lock onto his first target. Not a big issue at this point in his development for a first-time starting QB. Still has plenty of time to develop the ability to work through his progressions. Another area of improvement is his touch on passes. He rifles a lot of balls no matter the situation, reminds me a bit of Brock Vandagriff in this regard. Knowing when to mix in a changeup with his fastball will come over time.
Howard has a good ceiling, but I don’t see a superstar-level QB just yet. Upon arriving on LSU’s campus, Max Johnson will be heading into his junior season, giving Howard a year or two of development before he’s in the position to battle for playing time. Upon the departure of Johnson and Myles Brennan, Howard will be battling with incoming freshman Garrett Nussmeier. Nussmeier is a fine prospect, but Howard has the skills to compete with him despite being a year behind in the program. I’m not sure Howard can ever develop into a 1st round type of a QB but he could be a solid C2C option.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next Fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. One of the nation’s highest upside tight ends resides in Seffner, Florida. Michael Trigg is a very intriguing option at the tight end spot. He’s considered to be a highly regarded basketball recruit as well. Listed at 6’4” and 208lbs, Triggs plays mostly wide receiver in high school but is projected to transition to tight end at the college level. As a junior, he hauled in 82 receptions for 1,232 yards and 16 TDs. He’s ranked as 247Sports 3rd overall tight end and just missed the cut off being a top 100 overall prospect.
Trigg’s listed size looks pretty legit. He’s well put together with a thick base. Trigg has above-average speed and athleticism for the position. His lack of a top gear is one of the biggest reasons he needs to play tight end in college. A combination of his size and athleticism could make Trigg a mismatch for college defenses. He’s comfortable flexing out wide and lining up in the slot. That’s where he was mainly used throughout his junior season. He shows natural hands and can make the highlight reel type receptions. Consistently catches balls away from his body. His ability to excel in the red zone will aid in his fantasy value. Very physical after the catch, able to break tackles and manhandle defenders. Versatile athlete that could end up on either side of the ball. Wouldn’t be a total shock to see him develop into a good edge defender.
Lacks experience as an in-line tight end. To be utilized properly, Trigg needs to be flexed so he doesn’t get exposed in the blocking game. His blocking isn’t highlighted much on his film, but there are some clips of Trigg lining up as an H-Back and blocking downhill. He shows the ability to bully smaller defenders but lacks technique when doing so.
Trigg is the type of tight end that I’d be willing to take a flier on. I’m all for high-upside tight ends with size, movement skills, and a basketball background. While he currently lacks a well-rounded game due to his issues as a blocker, I’ll wait until a kid is a few years into a college strength program to really critique his blocking ability.
