Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Win Totals
Odds Via BetMGM
Toledo o8.5 (-115): The -115 isn’t ideal but I don’t see an unwinnable on the Rockets schedule outside of week 2 matchup against Notre Dame. Norfolk State, UMass, Akron, and Bowling Green are about as guaranteed of wins as it gets. Outside of ND, Ball State is the only team on Toledo’s schedule that’s currently ranked higher in Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings. Toledo +220 to win the MAC is another bet I’m eyeing.
Nevada o7.5 (-125): Once again the -125 odds isn’t pretty but I like Nevada to go over the 7.5 wins. Their three toughest games come against Boise State, California, and Kansas State (all three come on the road). If they lose all three games they’d still need another two losses to lose the bet. SP+ has Nevada ranked ahead of their remaining 9 opponents. Having a potential first-round NFL selection at QB gives Nevada the edge against any MWC opponent. Nevada at +400 to win the MWC peaks my interest as well.
UTSA o8 (+100): Finally got one with good odds! Only three future opponents rank ahead of UTSA in SP+ (Illinois, Memphis, and UAB). UTSA vs Illinois is a sneaky interesting game week 1. If UTSA loses all three games they still have a two-game cushion to get you that push. I love what Jeff Traylor is doing with the Road Runners, I’m jumping on the bandwagon for this year. UTSA also grades out with my third easiest schedule in the nation.
Liberty o9 (-120): Liberty’s toughest two games come in late November when they travel to Oxford to play Ole Miss and then they welcome Louisiana two weeks later. If Malik Willis is all that he’s cracked up to be he should be able to lead Liberty to ten wins. Ole Miss is a loss and Louisiana is a toss-up but I’m leaning the Cajuns. The Flames travel to UAB and Syracuse. The Orange will be among the 5 worst P5 teams in the country and they lost last season to Liberty. Even with losses to Ole Miss and Louisiana you still have a two-game cushion for the push.
Indiana u7.5 (-130): The Hoosiers were one of the luckiest teams in America last season. I see three guaranteed losses to Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State. Yes, they beat two of those foes last season but both teams were among the worst each school has put out in the last decade. Follow that up with games against Iowa and Cincinnati that appear to be leaning towards losses. All five schools rank ahead of IU in SP+ and Minnesota is nipping at their heels. Tom Allen has built up a really nice program but they snap back to reality in 2021 after an uber-lucky 2020 season.
Houston o8.5 (-105): A bottom ten schedule in the nation with every game being winnable. The toughest being Texas Tech, Tulsa, Memphis, and SMU (only one game on the road). They avoid the big dawgs in the AAC of Cincinnati and UCF. Dana desperately needs a big year in 2021. I think the Cougars are set up for a good season.
2. Camp Buzz for True Freshmen
Caleb Hood, RB, North Carolina: “The first back other than Ty Chandler to go in would be Caleb Hood right now,” Mack Brown told reporters on Sunday. “Caleb’s making progress and doing a good job. The other guys are still competing for a spot.”
I did a full write-up on Hood back in March. He’s a converted QB who’s making a name for himself on a talented squad.
De’Zhaun Stribling, WR, Washington State: “One of the stars of camp so far has been Stribling. Size, speed, skill, athleticism, he has it all. And to this point in camp, he has lined up with the ones every day and performed well. Not bad for a freshman.
The question is whether or not Stribling’s performance has been that of a fall camp star, or a legitimate Pac-12 wide receiver star. From CF.C’s eyes, it looks to be the latter, but a live scrimmage may offer a clearer answer.
Stribling will likely see a healthy dose of fifth-year cornerback Jaylen Watson (6-3, 204) on Saturday and that should certainly help prepare him for conference play, because there arguably isn’t a cornerback in the Pac-12 that has the mixture of size, speed and coverage abilities like Watson.”
Stribling is certainly a name to monitor for C2C and CFF Dynasty rosters.
Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa State: “Freshman “M” WR Jaylin Noel (5-foot-10, 185) has impressed his teammates and coaches since he arrived in Ames in the spring. Noel has been extremely focused and developed his body and skill set in a positive manner. Word is he has shown a mature mindset and an incredible work ethic. Noel has great speed and is very sudden and shifty and tough to tackle in space. Most expect at some point this season will have the ability to create explosive plays in a very talented and balanced Iowa State offense. He will need to continue to push the veteran “M” receivers ahead of him and will likely have to prove his worth early to the staff on special teams.
“He’s been extremely impressive at the wide receiver position for us,” head coach Matt Campbell said.
Noel is a playmaker in the slot and look for him to continue to progress in a program known for its development of players. A three-star in 2021, Noel appears to be another nice find for the Cyclones.”
3. Memphis RB1?
A little bit over a year ago when this article was in its infant stages I talked about the Memphis running back room. Well, it sounds like one of the lesser heralded guys might be snagging the RB1 role for 2021 and it’s not one of the backs being drafted in C2C or CFF leagues right now.
“The redshirt freshman running back (Brandon Thomas) was heavily included in the rotation during the spring game, and he has carried that momentum over to the fall. According to multiple sources close to the program, Thomas has arguably been the Tigers’ best running back thus far in camp.
Asa Martin and Kylan Watkins have also made an impression on the staff, but Thomas may have a slight edge as of right now to be the team’s lead back in week one.”
Here’s what I wrote about Brandon Thomas last July.
“Thomas is another three-star recruit that signed with Memphis over offers from SMU and in-state Arkansas State. Thomas comes from a wishbone offense in high school; the transition to the spread might take some time. Thankfully, Memphis won’t have to rely on Thomas early in his career. While he is put together much better than fellow incoming freshman back Kory Gainwell, Thomas lacks speed and explosion. He is a downhill between-the-tackles runner. Thomas is a potential role player, but the lack of speed hinders his upside.”
Coach Ryan Silverfield was quoted in the Spring saying he loves how Thomas runs over defenders. He had a decent showing in the Spring game and now looks to be having a good Fall. I don’t think Thomas is a game breaker due to his speed, but I’m intrigued if he earns the starting nod. I recently snagged Thomas in the 43rd round of a CFF Dynasty startup draft and am looking to add him on a few other rosters C2C/CFF Dynasty.
4. Rising Senior Spotlight
Coleman rolls into the Fall as 247s third-rated receiver in the nation. Coleman currently has a top eight suitors including Alabama, Arizona State, Florida State, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Texas, and USC. The Saint Louis native only played in four games in 2020, scoring 12 TDs in that time frame. Unable to locate yardage or how he scored those TDs but 12 TDs in four games is ridiculous no matter the way you slice it. As a sophomore in 2019, Coleman shredded his competition to the tune of 76-1512-21 (19.9 YPC). Prior to the 2019 season, Coleman clocked a 4.61 40-yard time at 5’10” and 157lbs. Not great testing numbers but Coleman was likely only 15 or 16 at the time. The Spring of this freshman season he was able to run a 11.32 100-yard. Wouldn’t be out of the question to see that number go sub 11 seconds by the time he leaves high school.
Coleman’s size is certainly a concern. He looks tiny on film. Coleman is going to struggle to get over the 180lbs mark. One thing that’s not a concern with Coleman is his playmaking abilities. He’s great in the open field with the ball in his hands. He’s quick, fluid, and slippery. High school defenders have next to no chance at tackling him in the open field. Coleman has good speed but appears to be quicker than he is fast. Gets a ton of usage in the screen game. Coleman is great after the catch and should be able to excel at the next level with his yards after catch abilities. Coleman is a pretty refined route runner.
Coleman’s going to need to bulk up and add strength if he’s wanting to go on to be a Pro. Weight concerns for receivers have been a big area of debate this NFL Draft season. No matter how speed or what kind of playmaking ability that Tutu Atwell has, he’s not going to succeed in the NFL at 149lbs.
If Coleman was a recruit 10-15 years ago he’d be an afterthought but with today’s change in offensive philosophy, he’s a premiere recruit for colleges. Coleman is a great fit into today’s game and I’m surprised to see Oklahoma not in his top eight schools. Coleman would be a great fit into a team like Alabama, Texas, or USC with their offensive approaches. I think Coleman is posed to be a really good college player but I’m timid about his pro outlook until I see some positive weight gain.
5. Freshman Spotlight
What if I were to tell you there’s a freshman tight end right now making some buzz at a school that’s a pillar of tight end development. Said tight end is already listed at 6’5″ and 250lbs and played quarterback as a senior in high school. Throwing for over 2,100 yards and 23 TDs. The last time our freshman tight end played the position in 2019 he hauled in 19-306-7. Our mystery tight end isn’t likely to see major production in the next two years due to being stuck behind an All-American right now.
Mitchell Evans enrolled at Notre Dame this past winter and already started to get ND reporters buzzing with how quickly he took to the position after spending a year at QB. Evans hauled in three passes for 59 yards in the Spring game. Evans has an outside shot of earning the TE2 role at some point this Fall. I don’t believe the Irish will use as much 2 TE sets this year as they previously have done. Evans is an advanced blocker, at one point it was believed he could develop into an offensive tackle as he grew.
Evans is a very deep name to keep an eye on this Fall. If he truly earns the TE2 role that says a lot about his skill with the way the Irish have recruited the tight end spot for the last decade now. Evans is worth a stash in very deep C2C or CFF Dynasty leagues. His production will be limited as long as Michael Mayer is in town.
