Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Conference Odds: AAC
Cincinnati (-230) is a heavy favorite for a reason. Coach Luke Fickell has put together quite the team over recent years, and I wouldn’t mind seeing that name as the next Notre Dame Head Coach once Brian Kelly retires. The Bearcats have been the most successful G5 recruiter over the last five years even topping some P5 schools like Arizona, Boston College, Duke, Illinois, Kansas, Kansas State, Oregon State, and Wake Forest in the five-year span. While I don’t agree with Desmond Ridder NFL Draft hype he’s clearly an upper echelon G5 QB and the best QB in the AAC with the uncertainty with the fit of Dillan Gabriel and Gus Malazahn. Former 4-star recruit and Alabama Crimson Tide back, Jerome Ford, appears to have the backfield to himself. He’s a prime breakout candidate. At this point, it’s hard to lay money on anybody outside of Cincinnati.
UCF (+450) rolls in with the second-best odds in the AAC. I still have major questions about how the Gabriel and Malazahn marriage will work. Will Gus adjust his system to fit what Dillon Gabriel does best or will he try to fit a round peg in a square hole? Gabriel loves to throw the ball deep over his first two years at UCF roughly 20% of his attempts have been 20 yards or more compared to just 15% for the Auburn Tigers over the last two years. By the looks of Malazahn’s early recruiting he’s wanting a run-first QB. Current QB commit, Thomas Castellanos was being recruited as a running back by P5 schools. I think we have a clear picture of what Gus wants to do in the future, but what are his plans for 2021?
Finding a dark house in the AAC was a bit difficult but SMU sitting at +2500 is intriguing. They have former Oklahoma QB Tanner Mordecai coming in to take over for Shane Buechele. They have plenty of experience at running back with Ulysses Bentley and TJ McDaniel who are coming off a season-ending injury. As is Reggie Roberson and the once medically-retired Grant Calcaterra. SMUs weapons on offense can match up with anybody in the G5.
Conference Title Game: Cincinnati Vs Memphis
My Pick: Cincinnati
Dark Horse: SMU
2. Conference Odds: ACC
A lot like the Big Ten from a few weeks ago nobody in the conference has comparable talent to the favorite Clemson (-835). The Tigers bring back the third least production in the conference but it doesn’t really matter. They are lapping the rest of the conference when it comes to recruiting. The one area of concern for Clemson though is QB depth. If something happens to DJU, they have nothing left. They lost then-QB2 Taisun Phommachanh to an achilles injury during the spring game, and it appears incoming freshmen QB Bubba Chandler is going pro in baseball after getting drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates. The depth is scary, and if DJU gets hurt, the Clemson offense will be neutered. The lack of depth actually makes me shy away from DJU in CFF due to Clemson most likely limiting his rushing attempts to keep him healthy.
North Carolina and Miami both come in at +700. UNC is a hot team but with all of the offensive weapons it lost, I have my questions about just how much the Tar Heels can improve in 2021. The now veteran Sam Howell will have his work cut out for him to get everybody on the same page. The Hurricanes return the most production in the conference but just how healthy will D’Eriq King be? I’m sure he can take the field to start the season but will he actually be back to full strength? While King has had a ton of success as a college QB a lot of that has been due to his legs. On balls that traveled at least ten yards in the air in 2020, King only completed 43% of his passes. He’s just not that great of a passer and doesn’t scare me with his arm. One of the two will represent the Coastal in the ACC Title Game.
Boston College (+5000) is the fun dark horse team. Like I previously said about Desmond Ridder, I’m not a fan of Phil Jurkovic’s draft hype but he’s a fine college QB. With some improvement, this BC team could be in for a fun 2021. The Eagles bring back the third-most production from 2020. This dark horse pretty much just rides on the idea of Jurkovec playing out of his mind.
Title Game: Clemson Vs North Carolina
My Pick: Clemson
Dark Horse: Boston College
3. Tempered Expectations
Vanderbilt RB Re’Mahn Davis has been a hot name because his competition for carries entered the transfer portal. Just how much production do you expect a back on a team with a 3 game win total to have? The ‘Dores are going to be in negative game script for a large portion of the season handcuffing Davis’ production. Not only will Davis not be getting carries late in the game to ice a victory his offensive line is well below average. In 2020, the ‘Dores finished 90th in Line Yards created and 116th in Opportunity Rate. They don’t have a QB or WR that threaten a defense, so they’ll be able to pin their ears back and just stop the run. I wouldn’t be getting too excited for Davis in C2C leagues.
Mataeo Durant at Duke is another back in the same exact situation. The Blue Devils are sitting at a 3.5 win total. Durant will be facing negative game script for nearly 75% of Duke’s schedule. Much like Vandy, Duke’s 2020 offensive line was poor., ranking outside the top 80 in Line Yards, Opportunity Rate, Success Rate, and Stuff Rate. Duke and Durant will struggle mightily upon getting into conference play.
Taking running backs on bad teams with bad offenses is a no-no for NFL, so why wouldn’t it be for C2C or CFF? Both have been unwarranted praise for the actual output they’ll get from them.
4. Rising Senior Spotlight
The Buckeyes currently have commitments from four of 247s top eight WRs in the 2023 recruiting class. This week I want to take a look at Arizona native and Buckeye commit Kyion Grayes. Grayes recently saw a major bump in his rank after a big summer camp circuit. Via 247Sports “The 6-foot-1 and 170-pound Grayes plays for one of the top prep football programs in the state of Arizona. Grayes caught 28 passes for 562 yards and 10 touchdowns as Chandler went undefeated and won the state championship last season. In 13 games during his sophomore season, Grayes caught 48 passes for 883 yards and six touchdowns. He is also an outstanding student with a 3.6 GPA.”
On my first viewing of Grayes, I got Chris Olave vibes. He’s not the biggest or the fastest, but he’s always open. He’s a technician out wide and consistently creates space. He’s one of the best route runners that I’ve seen in this class thus far. Grayes has a great burst off the line of scrimmage. He easily defeats high school defenders and should be able to win at the college level off the line.
Grayes is a very intriguing player with a ton of Olave vibes to his game, but the Buckeyes’ WR room is so loaded at this point who knows which high-level recruits will actually get on the field over the next handful of years.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next Fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. With his dismissal and new landing spot at Liberty, Kaidon Salter has become a very interesting C2C buy. Salter signed with the Vols as a top 10 QB in last year’s recruiting class. He was somewhat buried at Tennessee behind Harrison Bailey and two transfer QBs. Salter was dismissed earlier this summer from Tennessee. “After enrolling in January out of Cedar Hill High School in Texas, he and multiple teammates were suspended in March following their arrests on misdemeanor drug charges stemming from an alleged burglary and assault at an on-campus residence hall. Salter, whose charges for that incident were dropped, missed all of spring practice and rejoined the team in May for summer workouts. But he was dismissed days after he was cited for simple possession when he admitted to police after a traffic stop for having no taillights and a tinted license plate cover that he had teammate Amari McNeill throw a bag containing 4 grams of marijuana out of the car.”
Salter just might be the man in waiting once Malik Willis heads to the NFL following the 2021 season. Salter had a great senior campaign throwing for over 2,700 yards and 30 TDs and 7 INTs. He added another 1,100 yards and 16 TDs on the ground, all while facing some of the best competition the state of Texas has to offer. I wasn’t a fan of the landing spot with the Vols, but landing at Liberty gives him earlier access to playing time, and facing a much lower level of competition makes Salter a really intriguing C2C option. I really don’t care about his NFL upside at this point. Liberty has already shown the ability to take a P5 dual-threat transfer and turn them into a top fantasy producer. I want Salter on my C2C or CFF Dynasty rosters and all I care about is his college production. If he develops into an NFL-caliber QB that’s a cherry on top. The one issue with Salter could be the departure of Coach Hugh Freeze. If Freeze snags a bigger job, Salter’s fantasy outlook gets a little cloudy.
