Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Conference Odds: MAC
Using SportsBettingDime.Com odds, let’s take a look at the MAC Conference.
The Buffalo Bulls are the current favorite to win the MAC in 2021. With a late change in coaching staff and numerous starters hitting the transfer portal, I can’t get behind Buffalo at this time. Recent transfer departures put Buffalo with the least returning production in the MAC and 108th overall in the country. Just too much uncertainty to lay any money on the Bulls. If Lance Leipold was still in town this would be a whole new story. The defending MAC Champions Ball State come in at +350 odds. With a very experienced offensive core returning with Drew Plitt, Justin Hall, and Yo’Heinz Tyler the Cards pose one of the best offenses in the entire conference. Ball State is returning 82% of its production from 2021, ranking 30th overall according to Bill Connelly. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Cardinal repeat as MAC Champions.
The three schools that intrigue me the most are Toledo (+450), Western Michigan (+1200), and Kent State (+1400). Call me a Kaleb Eleby homer but, I think the Broncos have something special in the veteran signal caller. The Broncos come in right behind Ball State with the 31st most returning production. I love the core of WMUs offense. Eleby will be tossing the ball to Skyy More and Jaylen Hall. The rushing attack will be manned by former Michigan State Spartan La’Darius Jefferson and Sean Tyler. WMU will boost the most explosive offense in the MAC alongside our next school in Kent State. QB play will play a major factor in crowning the next MAC Champ outside of Kaleb Eleby, Kent State has the second-best QB in the league with Dustin Crum. Kent State had one of the more explosive offensive attacks in 2020 and will only add to that with speedster transfer Nykeim Johnson. The Golden Flashes defense leaves a lot to be desired (allowed Jaret Patterson to almost single-handedly rewrite every single-game rushing record last year) but they can go blow for blow with any school in the MAC offensively.
Toledo leads the nation with 97% of its production returning from 2020. The Rockets have a couple of gifted backs in Bryant Koback and Micah Kelly. Carter Bradley is taking over the reins of the starting QB job. Bradley is the highest-ranked QB to ever sign with Toledo according to 247Sports and despite not being the full-time starter previously he’s already got 200 career passing attempts under this belt. Staying with the returning production theme, CMU comes in 9th in the nation at 92%. Just like Toledo, the Chips have two good backs with Kobe Lewis and Lew Nichols. Kalil Pimpleton on the outside might be the best receiver in the entire conference. Plus they add former Washington Husky QB, Jacob Sirmon, from the transfer portal.
Right now, I think the group of Ball State, Toledo, and CMU are the best bets at actually winning the conference as we sit today. Throwing any money on Buffalo right now as the favorite just seems like a waste. Completely redoing its coaching staff post-spring practice is unheard of and just leaves way too many question marks. Tossing some money WMUs way is a nice long-shot bet. I’m expecting big things from Eleby and WMU in 2021. Having a potential high-caliber NFL Draft prospect can be the difference in winning two or three extra games in the MAC.
My Pick: Toledo
Longshot: Western Michigan
2. Conference Odds: Big 10
Unlike the MAC the Big Ten is pretty cut and dry. I really have no idea how you can bet on anybody other than Ohio State. Despite being ranked 13th in the Big Ten in returning production, the Bucks just have too much talent. Nobody in the conference is recruiting near the level of Ohio State right now. Shoot, only Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia are recruiting at the same level as Ryan Day’s crew. Betting on anybody that’s not Ohio State to win the conference isn’t a winning move but let’s live in a world where the Buckeyes lose all three scholarship QBs and somebody else in the conference actually has a chance at winning.
Michigan and Penn State have the most talent outside of Columbus in the B1G but neither have coaches that I’m confident in when it comes to putting in work on Saturdays. James Franklin might be one of the worst in-game coaches in the entire P5. While both teams have talented rosters they lack at the most important position, quarterback. Sean Clifford has had his ups and downs but PSU has no other options to turn to right now. On the other hand Michigan has three options on its hands. The starting gig is being handed off to Cade McNamara, for how long I’m not sure. He’ll have JJ McCarthy chomping at his heels and the support of the fans no matter what. The 5-star backup QB is always the fan-favorite until he gets on the field and tosses a few interceptions. McCarthy flashed in Spring ball, but like any freshmen QB, he had his downs as well. As it sits today, I’d have more confidence in Penn State pulling off the conference upset than the Wolverines.
Possibly the Hoosiers can hang with the top group in the eastern division. They did defeat Michigan and Penn State last season and gave Ohio State all they could handle. The key for IU is keeping Michael Penix Jr healthy. His last three seasons have all been cut short after six games. Getting some key transfers on offense from Stephen Carr and DJ Matthews can help the losses of Stevie Scott and Whop Philyor to the NFL. I think IU bounces back to reality in 2021 though. They felt like an extremely lucky team in 2020. They pounced on both Michigan and Penn State at their lowest points in recent memory. IU is led by great coaching but they just don’t have the talent of the top dogs in the conference. Over the last five years, IU ranks 12th in the conference in recruiting and outside the top 50 nationally. While Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State all rank inside the top 16 for the same time frame. Premiere coaching can only get you so far when you are at a talent disadvantage. Throw Tom Allen on Michigan or Penn State with their talent and now you are looking at one hell of a team.
Wisconsin sits as a heavy favorite to win the western half of the conference. They don’t have to face Ohio State in cross-conference play, but they do get Michigan and Penn State during the regular season. If Graham Mertz regains the magic of his Illinois performance the Badgers most likely have the best chance of dethroning the Bucks in 2021. While they lack speed on the outside on both sides of the ball they can control the trenches against almost any school. The most likely scenario is Wisconsin Vs Ohio State once again in the title game. I just don’t see how Wisconsin can compete on the outside and keep the game close.
My Pick: Ohio State
Longshot: Wisconsin
3. Overlooked G5 Talent
The key to winning any Campus league in a C2C league is finding the overlooked G5 talent that’s not on the NFL radar yet. Let’s take a look at some young G5 talents with multiple years of production still left.
Carter Bradley, QB, Toledo: As I mentioned above, Bradley is the highest-rated QB to ever sign with Toledo during the internet recruiting era. Currently, a rJR with two years of eligibility left and the extra COVID year to take advantage of as well. Bradley most likely isn’t a starter for your championship-contending team this year as a first-year full-time starter but the following two years are what’s intriguing with a year of starting under his belt.
Others: A few other veteran names that only have a single year of eligibility (possibly a second with the extra COVID year but it’s hard to keep track of). Jake Bentley is getting a sixth year at South Alabama and is in a very pass-friendly offense with one of the best G5 receivers in the country attached to his hip in Jalen Tolbert….Ball State’s Drew Plitt gets the pleasure of passing the ball to two of the MACs finest in Yo’Heinz Tyler and Justin Hall. The trio should have a big 2021…Terry Wilson finds his way out of Kentucky and at a new home in New Mexico. He’s not going to ‘wow’ you with his arm but he’s an asset with his legs. He was able to excel as a runner against SEC defenses now he’s facing MWC defenders. I’ve scooped him up in a number of best ball leagues very late. Will have some very big spike weeks as he runs wild on lesser competition.
John Gentry, RB, Utah State: Gentry was overlooked in high school due to sharing a backfield with current TCU RB Zach Evans. Gentry is a big asset in the passing game. He’s got some big-play ability and should be fun to watch against MWC defenders. Gentry enters 2021 as a rFR and looks to be the projected starter as we sit today. Adding Gentry can get you four to five possible years of production.
Others: D’Vonte Price has a big workload ahead of him in 2021. Can be cheaply had by a non CFFers in your C2C league. His lack of NFL upside makes him a potential cheap buy…WMUs La’Darius Jefferson looks to keep the line of productive Broncos backs alive. Himself and backup Sean Tyler are both cheap adds potentially sitting on waivers right now…Antario Brown at NIU is a former South Carolina commit with multiple P5 offers. Potential impact true freshmen with a lot of talent.
Skyy Moore, WR, WMU: Moore has more NFL potential than the previously mentioned names so he might be a bit more expensive. The junior has a couple of years of eligibility left and he’s tethered to Kaleb Eleby. Should have some big weeks against MAC defenders. D’Wayne Eskridge’s departure is going to leave Moore or Jaylen Hall in a great spot for 2021.
Others: Ja’Shaun Poke and Nykeim Johnson are in line for big years with Dustin Crum. Crum has borderline NFL talent and should be able to throw up some big numbers against MAC level defenders…Nevada WR Elijah Cooks is the overlooked receiver in the Wolfpacks receiving core. Upon his return last season he outperformed the much higher-ranked Romeo Doubs. Both Cooks and Doubs can be productive receivers with Nevada’s pass-happy approach.
4. Rising Senior Spotlight
One prospect that continues to garner high praise is Miami (FL) commit, Jacurri Brown, and I’m honestly baffled by it. He recently competed in the Elite 11 Finals and was not in the other QBs’ leagues. He came in dead last out of 20 QBs according to SI.Com. “Miami commit Jacurri Brown was the most inconsistent passer on the day in the accuracy gauntlet, hitting a fair few perfect throws, but also missing more than any recruit in the event as well. Brown hit the least amount of ‘2’s’ on the drill, especially struggling with the more difficult throws of the day.” This should come as no surprise, Brown is lightyears behind in terms of being an accurate passer compared to the other top QBs in this class. Brown only completed 47% of his passes in 2020 for 14 TDs and 7 INTs. Brown has a ton of development before he’s even an adequate college QB let alone an NFL-caliber prospect.
Where Brown actually excels is as a rusher. Over the last two years, he’s tallied 394-2662-36 (6.8 YPC). His rushing ability gives Brown some C2C upside next year but honestly, he’s such a poor passer it’ll be a struggle to even get on the field.
Don’t be the fool next year to waste an early pick on Brown. Any buzz surrounding him in Devy is baffling. The development needed in his game to even be considered a legit NFL prospect is dramatic. Brown may be the least advanced passer that I’ve seen in the last five years from a QB rated 4-stars or higher. Can Brown develop into an adequate college QB? Sure. Can Brown be a college fantasy-relevant QB due to his rushing upside? Sure. Can Brown develop into a legit NFL prospect at quarterback? No.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next Fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. Audric Estime is the highest-rated of the two backs to sign with Notre Dame. He came in as 247s 16th rated back. Estime had a monster senior year that saw his recruitment blow up, rushing for over 1,800 yards and 22 TDs on just a hair under 10 yards per carry. Estime committed to the Michigan State Spartans only to flip to the Irish on the last day of the early signing period after a late offer from Notre Dame. Estime had significant improvement from his junior year to his senior season.
Estime has the build of a college junior already. Transitioning to the college game physically shouldn’t be an issue for the future Irish back. Estime is advanced strength-wise for a high school back. He’s an extremely physical runner that runs with great power. He’s able to truck high school defenders with ease. Estime is a downhill runner that doesn’t try to bounce the ball outside too often. Estime lacks top-end speed on film but the Notre Dame coaches have been surprised by his speed since getting on campus early this Summer. He won’t be ripping off a lot of big chunks at the college level. Estime won’t wow you with his quickness either. His ability to create for himself and break off big plays won’t be a strength. The ability to constantly break off intermediate gains will be where he makes his money. Estime’s patience and power will allow him to be a good college back.
While Estime may be college-ready physically, Kyren Williams will be the Irish’s go-to back for the 2021 season. In 2022, Estime and Chris Tyree will make a great one-two punch for the Irish rushing attack after the expected departure of Williams.
