Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. QB Deep Throwers
At some point over the last several months, PFF has added a depth of passing attempts in an easily readable and sortable form. Let’s take a look at some of the top deep ball passers in this upcoming class. All QBs below are considered to be at the top of the 2022 QB class, well besides Taulia, I threw him in for shits and giggles. His numbers don’t reflect in the totals due to dramatically dropping the averages with his poor performance.
*TWP stands for Turnover Worthy Pass.
*Valve the difference in ANY/A and the overall average multiplied by the number of passing attempts.
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If you’ve been following along with “I Got Five On It” or my Twitter for the past six months, you shouldn’t be surprised that Kaleb Eleby sits atop this list. He’s good, like really good. Earlier this week Tony Pauline of ProFootballNetwork graded Eleby with a 3rd round grade. If anybody is going to make a Zach Wilson-like rise in 2021, it’ll be Kaleb Eleby. Desmond Ridder sits at the bottom of this list, in an utter lack of surprise. He’s just not that great of a passer and the continual mocking of his being a first-rounder is insane to me at this point. The other more recent 2022 draft darlings, Malik Willis and Phil Jurkovec, round out the bottom of the list. Still not that surprising to me. Both lack refinement as passers and still have a long way to go before I’d be comfortable forecasting them as first round picks. Spencer Rattler is one of two QBs with over 50% completion on his passes of over 20 yards in the air, that’s even with a high of eight dropped passes. If Matt Corral didn’t have the 5 INTs dragging him down, he’d be head and shoulders above this group. But INTs kill you in the ANY/A formula. Michael Penix was the highest amongst this group in percent of passes that were turnover-worthy. He’s another one that I can’t get behind the hype for.
Next week, I’ll pull the data for all passing attempts of 10 yards or more for the same exact group of QBs. No need for the fluff of the easy short passes of sub-nine yards to determine who the top QBs are for the 2022 Class.
2. Strength of Schedule
Using Athlon Sports preseason magazine projected W/L record, I tallied up Strength of Schedule rankings based on projected Opponent W/L and projected W/L records of yours Opponents, Opponents.
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SECw boasts three of the top ten toughest schedules and the SEC overall has four inside the top ten. The Razorbacks are currently projected to face three opponents with at least ten wins and five that have at least nine projected wins. Lance Leipold isn’t getting an easy start as he takes over the Jayhawks. In what seemed like an easy game when originally scheduled, they face off against Coastal Carolina in the non-con who’s projected to go 11-1. Outside of a possible week 1 victory against an FCS opponent, it’s not looking good for the new head coach. A rebuilding team like Florida State faces the fourth toughest projected schedule right now. Not ideal for a team looking to rack up some easy wins and get some positive momentum flowing through the program. Georgia Tech keepings running into tough schedule bad luck. Last year before COVID wreaked havoc on the schedule, they were projected to have the toughest schedule. I like what Coach Geoff Collins is doing down in Atlanta by compiling a lot of talent, but the W/L record won’t be improving much for the Yellow Jackets in 2021.
Two of the top projected G5 teams in Coastal Carolina and Liberty look to face two of the easiest schedules in the entire nation. Look for Houston to become an overachiever in 2021. They only are projected to face two teams with a winning record (SMU and Tulsa both 7-5) they won’t have to face Cincinnati or UCF until the AAC Conference Title Game. Their current win total of 8 looks like an intriguing bet. Another up-and-coming program to monitor is UTSA. They are projected to face just one team with a winning record (UAB 8-4), they currently have an 8 game win total in Vegas as well. I’m even eying UTSA as a dog right now opening week against Illinois. Toledo is another to keep an eye on. According to Bill Connelly, Toledo leads the nation in returning production (these numbers are very fluent with the transfer portal so this might have changed anytime over the past two months). Combine one of the easiest schedules in the nation and the most returning production, Toledo looks like a solid bet to win the MAC in 2021. Outside of a trip to South Bend, the remaining 11 games are all winnable for the Rockets.
3. Recruiting Dominos
We saw some big-time prospects make commits this week, especially at the running back spot.
Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma: The Colorado native is the second big-time back to commit to the Sooners in this current cycle. Sawchuk ranks as the 247 Composite Ratings 2nd best back at the moment. In seven games in 2020, Sawchuk rushed for 131-1239-17 and added another 9-71 as a pass-catcher. Despite his lack of receiving stats, he’s compared to Christian McCaffery by 247, who attended the same high school in Colorado. Sawchuk has elite speed and has a 10.62 100-meter time on his resume.
Dallan Hayden, Ohio State: Hayden barely ranks in the 247 top 25 backs, but I expect that to change over the course of his recruitment. 2020 was Hayden’s first full-time year at running back, producing 232-2010-24 on the ground and added 10-127 as a pass-catcher. Our very own Brad McDaniel has had Hayden covered since day 1 of his recruiting boom (full scouting report). Hayden will look to be a nice complement to incoming freshmen Tre Henderson once he steps on campus in 2022.
In the next section is the next big-time domino for RB recruiting.
4. Rising Senior Spotlight
Through three years of high school, Nicholas Singleton has been as dominant as any back in this recruiting class. As a sophomore, Singleton rushed for over 1,690 yards (9.4 YPC) and 32 TDs. In 2020, Singleton saw a slight decrease in his touches due to playing in only eight games but was efficient as ever. Rushing for 1,303 yards (12.3 YPC) and 22 TDs. Prior to his sophomore year of high school, Singleton competed at the Nike Opening. From June of 2019 he weighed in at 5’11” and 191lbs. At the same event, he clocked a 4.59 40-yard dash and 36.4” vertical jump. Even as a freshman, Singleton clocked a 11.21 100-meters time. After recent official visits, Singleton is rumored to be favoring the Fightin’ Irish over Penn State.
As a junior, Singleton appeared to be hovering around the 200lbs range. He’s got a great frame and can easily bulk up to the 210-220lbs range by the end of his college career. Singleton shows great speed on the field, I would imagine he’s a sub 11 second 100-meter guy by this point in his development. He doesn’t appear to be playing against the stiffest competition, but Singleton is a man amongst boys. His highlight reel is 8 mins of tosses and options to the outside that he’s able to take to the end zone from any distance. I really like Singletons burst and explosion. He can hit top gear in a short manner. Singleton runs with great fluidity; can slice through a defense with ease.
Due to the nature of his high school offense, you don’t get to see Singleton get a lot of pass-catching reps. I’d like to get more evidence of Singleton being able to run between the tackles. I’d say at least 80-90% of his highlights are rushes outside of the hashes. He’ll take a toss/option pitch and just use his speed and burst to beat defenders to the outside and score with ease.
Singleton is an interesting prospect with a big upside. He’ll need to round out his game in college, but he’s considered a top-level NFL prospect. His lack of pass-catching (he may be a great pass-catcher with just no evidence on film) and he’ll need to adapt to running more between the tackles will determine how highly Singleton is viewed. He’ll also have a giant step up in competition in high school. There’s just nobody on the field that can match speed or physicality with Singleton in his area. I really like what I’ve seen from Singleton but he’s got some clear areas of improvement in his game. He’ll easily be a top-five back in this class for me.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next Fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. This week’s spotlight is Wisconsin signee, Jackson Acker, who’s recently tore it up at the Wisconsin Track & Field Finals. Running at a 10.93 100-meter at a listed 220lbs (most likely closer to 210ish). Not much is to be found surrounding Acker’s recruitment. He was injured for part of his junior year but rushed for 113-929-11 and his senior year just kicked off a few months ago (Acker’s Hudl hasn’t been updated in over two years). Acker is a big (6’2” and 220lbs) versatile back. He has good top-end speed and is a track athlete. Not much I can glean from Ackers’ film since there’s just not much of it, and it’s from 2018. Here’s what Wisconsin 247s has to say about Acker ``Athletically, I just think Acker is too gifted for UW to not at least try running back for a year or two. As a runner, he looks really good in open space. Acker can get to top-end speed in a hurry. Between the tackles, he’s moving his feet better and is a lot shifter than a year ago. Think there are still some things left to be desired from a physicality standpoint. Acker is an upright runner, needs to lower those pads, pop people, and finish his runs. Acker doesn’t have a lot of games where he’s shouldering the load with 20-25 carries during his career. Not sure he’s developed into a bell cow who can carry an offense yet and wear the defense down with those tough yards.” They also have concerns that Acker can easily outgrow the running back position. He’s already built like a linebacker before touching a college weight.
Acker is no doubt an intriguing prospect with his size and speed combination. I just don’t have enough information to go by at the current time. But the Wisconsin reporters that have seen him do seem to have their concerns surrounding his game transitioning to the next level as a running back. The Badgers also signed two other backs this past February and are already transitioning a linebacker signee to running back. Add on top of that the incoming transfer of Chez Mellusi, I’m not sure Wisconsin is sold on Acker just yet either. That’s a lot of bodies to surpass for a raw back.
