Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Heisman Odds
No surprise that five QBs come in as the Heisman favorites but a bit down the list are some really interesting names. Guys like Corral, Robinson, and Stroud are worthy dart throws that can pay off big.
Via William Hill
Rattler +550
Uiagalelei +700
Young +900
Daniels +1200
Howell +1500
Bijan Robinson +2500
Corral +3500
Stroud +3500
Matt Corral: Corral will throw up some ridiculous stats this year but if Ole Miss drops to 7-5 on the season that’s going to be incredibly tough to bring home the trophy. Corral threw for over 330 yards per game at over 10 yards per attempt facing an SEC-only schedule last year. Sprinkle in a few more cupcakes in 2021 and avoid 4 and 5 interception games and we got a Heisman winning recipe. Corral’s end-of-season stats will be amongst the best in the nation. If Corral can orchestra an upset or two in prime time he’ll gain some steam.
Bijan Robinson: Much like Coral, Robinson’s Heisman hopes will ride on his team’s overall performance. I believe Robinson is the most talented player at any skill position in CFB right now. A full season as the Longhorns’ RB1 could push Robinson near 2,000 yards of total offense. He’ll have a number of highlight-reel runs shredding through Big 12 defenders. UT pulling off 10 wins and Robinson getting near or over that 2,000-yard mark will put him into the Heisman talks.
CJ Stroud: In somewhat recent memories we’ve seen two rFR QBs, Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel, pull off Heisman-winning seasons. At +3500 odds, Stroud is a very intriguing option. Unlike the other two on this list, team wins shouldn’t be an issue for Stroud. Once again Ohio State should easily roll through the regular season. The only question is if they win 11 or 12 games in the regular season. Stroud has an insane amount of talent to throw the ball to this Fall. With two potential first-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft and another potential 2023 first-rounder in Jaxon Smith-Njiba and numerous 5-star talents on the bench. Ohio State’s high powered offense teamed with 12 wins and a Big Ten Title Game berth will catapult Stroud into Heisman conversations.
Anotha One: Breece Hall at +4000 peaks my curiosity as well. Iowa State appears set to flirt around with the CFB Playoffs once again, and if they do make the playoffs, it’ll be heavily due to the contributions by Hall.
2. True Freshman Starting QBs
Which true freshman QB actually starts Week 1?
Sam Huard: Huard split his Spring between playing high school football then jumping right into Washington spring practice. By the sounds of reports, he struggled a bit. I would have pegged Huard as the best option to start if his Spring struggle wouldn’t have happened. I am no way concerned about them. Guess what, freshman QBs aren’t always ready to step into a situation on day 1 and win the job…weird concept. While it was only four games, Dylan Morris actually performed better in 2020 than expected outside of a 3 interception game.
Tyler Buchner: There is less than a 1% chance that Buchner is the Week 1 starter. Outside of injuries, transfers, suspensions, or COVID reasons, Buchner isn’t starting Week 1. The Notre Dame staff has made it pretty clear already that the QB battle is between Jack Coan and Drew Pyne for the starting spot. Buchner most likely earns some type of role this Fall though. Possibly a red zone package or even a Tim-Tebow-freshman-year-short-yardage type of package. Buchner is the least likely of the four to start week 1.
JJ McCarthy: Looking at UM’s current situation, I think McCarthy is the best bet right now. Out of the four QBs on this list, McCarthy is the most college-ready today. I still think it’s a very long shot at this point that JJ is taking the first snap of the season for UM. Harbaugh is on a hot seat so I think he’s going to lean more towards experience. Getting McCarthy experience and getting himself fired at the same time only helps out the next coaching staff.
Preston Stone: Out of the four, I see Stone as the third most likely. I think taking the grad transfer of Tanner Mordecai pretty much solidifies him as the starter. Mordecai is a fine CFB QB who I think would start at a lot of schools in the Big 12, unfortunately, Oklahoma isn’t most schools in the Big 12.
I really don’t see a clear situation where a tFR starts Week 1 right now for all incoming freshman QBs. A lot of the top ten QBs signed in spots with top QBs that are most likely gone after 2021 (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Brock Vandagriff, Jaxson Dart, Miller Moss, and Jake Garcia). Jake Garcia might have an outside chance if something happens during D’Eriq King’s ACL recovery. Looking at 247Sports top 20 QBs, nobody jumps out as a guaranteed day 1 starter outside of an injury situation.
3. Underrated B10 Incoming Freshman WRs
Jordan Mosley, Northwestern: Mosley was a one-time Tennessee Vols commit before the new coaching staff took over. As a senior in 2020, Mosley dropped 31-635-8 (20.5 YPC). From March of 2019, the Future Wildcat ran a 4.58 40-yard dash with a 37” vertical jump and just a month later ran a 10.8 100-meter time. Mosley shows great burst off the line of scrimmage and has good acceleration in and out of route cuts. Shows off good speed and is an excellent vertical threat. Mosley will bring a speed/big play threat that the Wildcats haven’t had recently.
Outlook: I can’t imagine Pat Fitzgerald has many receivers on the current roster as talent with the upside of Mosley. Mosley’s speed should get him on the field early. Potential multi-year starter but upside for C2C is highly limited due to the Wildcats’ offensive system.
Arland Bruce IV, Iowa: Bruce has a very intriguing high school background. Listed as an ATH by 247Sports, Iowa lists Bruce as a WR on its depth chart. Early in his career, he played a glorified Wildcat QB position. Rushing for over 2,479 yards and 43 TDs as a junior. He got to play some running back and receiver in 2020 at a new school bringing in 30-451-5 and added another 81-660-8 as a rusher. Bruce is a distant relative of NFL Hall of Fame receiver Isaac Bruce. Bruce was very under-recruited only claiming offers from Iowa, Iowa State, Tulsa, and FCS Western Illinois. Bruce plays with above-average speed but has good quickness. His cutting abilities are top-notch. Bruce has very quick feet. With his background as a running back, I’m very intrigued to see how he translates out wide. His yards after the catch ability could be through the roof
Outlook: Bruce just looks like the kid that a developmental program like Iowa gets their hands on and in a few years we are talking about an NFL Draft pick. It’ll be interesting to see if Bruce sticks out wide or moves back to running back. Iowa already signed three backs in this class, but honestly, Bruce might be the best back if he moves back. Worth a C2C stash despite Iowa not producing numbers at the receiver position for fantasy.
Calvin Johnson II, Northwestern: Johnson was a glorified Wildcat QB in high school along with seeing playing time at DB. Rushing for over 1,300 yards on 153 attempts and 8 TDs. Also tacking on 12 passing TDs and 2 kickoff returns for scores. Johnson was listed as an ATH by 247Sports but the Wildcats plan to deploy him at receiver. The most experience Johnson had at receiver was back in 2018 when he caught 32-369-3. Johnson has a good build to the lower half of his body already. He shows good quickness, burst, change of direction, and fluidity. It’s surprising to see Johnson ranked as the 112th best ATH by 247 just based on his athletic makeup.
Outlook: Johnson is clearly raw, not playing the receiver position in over two years. With a year or two of development, Johnson could be a major contributor for the Wildcats. He’s got the makeup of a player that could be a difference-maker in a rather bland offensive scheme. With all that being said, rostering a Northwestern receiver in C2C isn’t going to pay off too big.
4. Going Too Late in Devy ADP
Let’s look at one player at each position who’s going too late based on our ADP.
Carson Strong, QB, Nevada: Currently QB9 and 47th overall. Strong should be closer to QB5 overall in Devy right now. Potential 1st round draft pick next season and doesn’t have size or arm concerns like a Kedon Slovis or Jayden Daniels who’s going in front of him currently.
Blake Corum, RB, Michigan: Current RB54 and only has been drafted in one of fourteen drafts to this point. Corum has some elite traits even though he still needs development as a back. The sophomore back has elite speed, quickness, and pass-catching abilities. His needle will be pointing up especially when he plays over Donovan Edwards. That will make owners with freshman fever furious this fall.
Ajou Ajou, WR, Clemson: Current WR44 and 114th overall. Ajou’s ceiling is just silly. He’s got potential through the roof. His arm length alone appears to be the biggest I’ve ever seen on a receiver. Increased playing time this fall will move Ajou up boards.
Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State: TE5 and 90th overall. I believe Ruckert is the top TE in the 2022 class despite his lack of production. The lack of usage hasn’t allowed Ruckert to showcase his talents.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. Deion Colzie finds his way to South Bend via Athens, Georgia. Just this spring for Athens Academy, Colzie has set school records with a 10.82 100-meter and a 6’8” high jump. Listed by the Irish at 6’3” and 200lbs his unofficial 4.49 40-yard dash is impressive. As a senior in 2020, Colzie tallied 33-597-7 in a limited COVID schedule.
He has a good build but still has enough room to add additional mass. His long arms give Colzie a very impressive wingspan. Straight-line speed is good but it takes a bit for Colzie to get up to full speed. Can be a big-time deep threat at the college level. Shows very strong hands, highlighted by one-handed interceptions as a defender. Constantly is able to snag the ball with his hands away from his body. Can track the deep ball very well, highlighted by his time as a receiver as well as defensive back tracking down interceptions. Colzie is a very physical receiver. Shows great power after the catch. He isn’t able to juke his way past defenders, but he’s able to physically run over them. Willing to get involved in the run-blocking game. Shows a toughness and physicality when blocking.
Colzie will need to refine his route tree. The majority of his film shows Colzie catching just go-routes and balls at the line of scrimmage. Before he’s able to be a consistent threat, he will need to expand his game. While he has good straight-line speed you do not see much in short-area quickness or lateral quickness. Colzie plays with tight hips and doesn’t make defenders miss. He doesn’t move very well side-to-side and won’t get a lot of yards after the catch besides when he’s able to physically outmatch his defender.
Colzie is a very good prospect with a high ceiling. He still has a lot of room to grow and develop before he’s able to make an impact. I can envision Colzie playing sparingly as a freshman ahead of seeing a much bigger role after a year of development. Has a shade of DK Metcalf in his game. A big-bodied physical receiver with good deep speed but might be laterally challenged.
