Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. G5 Impact Transfers
A lowkey way to find some value in a C2C draft is finding former P5 athletes transferring down to the G5 level. The ability to face some lesser talented defenders can make the world of difference.
QB: Tanner Mordecai (OU to SMU), Grant Gunnell (Arizona to Memphis), and Bailey Zappe (Houston Baptist to W. Kentucky) all are posed to be immediate impact players in CFF-relevant offenses. SMU is fresh off a former P5 transfer in Shane Buechele; they now welcome a transfer from the other side of the Red River Rivalry in Mordecai. Mordecai teamed with Reggie Roberson and Grant Calcaterra should make one hell of a G5 level passing trio. Out of the three QBs on this list, I’m the least confident in Gunnell. While he should be the sure-fire starter for Memphis, his play on the field while at Arizona was up and down. Gunnell was a one-time big name in recruiting but saw his rankings take a major dip as his high school career went on. Zappe doesn’t fit the P5 to G5 fold but he’s going to be an impact transfer. Zappe and almost the entire Houston Baptist offense find their way to WKU. HBU lost their offensive coordinator, starting QB, and three different receivers all to WKU. WKU will have one of the most pass-happy offenses in 2021. In 2020, HBU only played four games in the fall and Zappe attempted 215 passes, his lowest total on the year was 46 attempts. Not to mention a 15:1 TD to INT ratio while facing FBS opponents three out of four games. Get yourself a piece of the WKU offense before it’s too late.
RB: Impact backs aren’t quite as clear as the quarterback position. Talent-wise I was a big fan of Mark-Antony Richards when he signed with Auburn. The rSO back follows Guz Malzahn down to UCF after a short, unsuccessful stay at Auburn. If Richards can stay healthy he’s the most talented back on the UCF roster. Not sure what impact he’ll have this fall, but I like the long-term fit between Richards and UCF. As a tFR in 2018, Isaiah Bowser rushed for nearly 900 yards for Northwestern. Just like Richards, he finds himself at UCF after a short commitment to Miami (OH). Richards has more talent than Bowser, but Bowser has at least shown the ability to be a college producer. If Bowser would have stuck with his commitment to the Redhawks I would have been much higher on Bowser. Really not a lot of sexy landing spots for P5 transfers to G5 for the RBs. A few names to monitor: Jaren Mangham (Colorado to USF), Jahmir Smith (Notre Dame to App State), Cyrus Habibi-Likio (Oregon to Boise State), Kay’Ron Adams (Rutgers to UMass), Anthony Williams Jr, (MSU to Akron), and Calvin Tyler (Oregon State to Utah State).
WR: Puka Nacua was a former top 50 overall player according to 247Sports and now finds himself with a new home at BYU. Nacua wasn’t able to get over 168 yards in either of the two years that he saw the field at Washington. BYU is losing a ton on offense. The former highly-ranked recruit should have his best opportunity college so far to get a major role. Tyrell Shavers finds himself at his third school in as many years. The former 4-star recruit signed as a part of the historic Alabama receiving class that included Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, and Devonta Smith. I was very high on Shavers coming out of high school and that’s not panned out one bit. Hopefully facing MWC level DBs will allow Shavers to have a productive 2021. Nykeim Johnson is a former speed-demon for Syracuse who now finds himself at Kent State. Johnson should be able to excel in facing MAC-level defenders. He’s a sneaky late C2C/CFF pick with a lot of upside. A few names to monitor: Ty Jones (Washington to Fresno State), Shamar Nash (Arkansas to Memphis), Jordan Johnson (Notre Dame to UCF), Ray Rose (UNC to ECU), and Matt Landers (UGA to Toledo).
2. Husky Second Year Receivers
Jalan McMillan: McMillan signed with Washington as the 11th rated receiver in the 2020 recruiting class. He played sparingly, hauling in just a single catch as a true freshman. McMillan had a solid end to the Huskies spring ball “McMillan really came on this spring, especially the last week of playing. Separation, catch percentage, all seemed to improve with his speed still being a threat.” McMillan stepping up and fulfilling his potential could step this Washington offense up to another level. With expected improved QB play when Sam Huard takes over the starting gig, McMillan should see an increased role and production. Currently the WR33 in DevyWatch ADP, McMillan could skyrocket with a bigger role.
Rome Odunze: Odunze played at one of the premier high schools in the county in Bishop Gorman in Nevada. Add that to a 6’3” 200 lbs frame and an extremely productive senior season 54/1222/15 and excellent testing numbers, and somehow Odunze was the 40th rated receiver in his recruiting class. That’s one of the most ridiculous ranks in the entire class. The Husky signee ran a reported 4.55 40 in February along with a 34” vertical jump. Odunze has an excellent build and still has room to grow. Good speed, polished route runner, and physical after the catch. Shows good toughness and holds onto balls despite big hits. Odunze caught just six balls for 72 yards as a true freshman in 2020. With transfers from Puka Nacua and Ty Jones out of the way, Odunze has plenty of opportunities to capitalize in 2021. Odunze isn’t being drafted in Devy or C2C mocks, making him a great late-round C2C snag.
3. QB Under Pressure ANY/A
ANY/A refresher: An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
Let’s take a look at the top QBs in 2021 Draft and the perceived top QBs for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Mac Jones was far and away the top performer in this group. He finished second in the nation out of QBs with at least 30 attempts under pressure. Phil Jurkovec doing well in this category isn’t a big surprise. He performs much better out of the structure of the play where he can freestyle and use his size and strength to extend plays. Two of the top QBs in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, both barely completed 40% of their attempts under pressure. They had two of the lowest numbers in the group but they couldn’t outdo Desmond Ridder’s impressive 29.3%. Ridder just doesn’t stack up well to the other QBs on this list. He’s got the worst completion percentage, yards per attempt, and the highest sack rate of this group. Fields didn’t do much better than Ridder in 2020, but in 2019 Fields was a top 10 performer while Ridder was still in the bottom tier. Matt Corral did an excellent job completing nearly 64% of his passes but he did toss 4 INTs.
4. Top Freshman Performers
Looking at Yards Per Team Passing Attempts let’s see who are the top true freshman from 2020. A surprising name sits atop the list.
UNLVs Kyle Williams sits atop the 2023 WR class in YPTPA, Market Share of Yards, and Dominator Rating. After Williams, the other nine names in the top 10 are what you would have expected coming out of the 2020 season. Kayshon Boutte is slightly lower due to sharing targets with Terrace Marshall for half the season. Marvin Mims sits in the top five despite only running 13 routes per game compared to nearly 40 routes per game for Kyle Williams. Much further down the list are a few names I expect to break out for C2C/Devy purposes. Corey Rucker at Arkansas State didn’t see a lot of action in 2020 but averaged 14 yards per target in a limited role. Daniel Jackson at Minnesota is poised for a big year with Rashod Bateman gone, Jackson should enter the season as the Gophers WR2. Koy Moore at LSU will look to have an expanded role in 2021, he could be one of biggest risers in 2021.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. We’ll take a look at new Sooner receiver Mario Williams. Williams was rated as a top 50 overall player by the 247 Composite Ranks and a top 5 receiver in his class. Williams finished off his high school career with a 40-743-8 season that was coming off a season in 2019 where he averaged nearly 30 yards per reception on 27 catches. Williams has already made an impact in spring ball with a team-high 5-84 in OU’s spring game. “He’s got a chance to have an impact,” said Oklahoma inside receivers coach Cale Gundy. “[He’s] very fast. One of the fastest players on our side of the ball. He loves to compete; he loves to practice, he loves to play ball. And he’s just a good player. He’s an intelligent young man. There’s an opportunity for him to help us in the return game somewhere.”
Listed by OU at 5’9” and 181lbs, both numbers look pretty generous. This shouldn’t stop Williams from making an early impact at OU. They’ve used plenty of receivers at similar sizes and they’ve succeeded in that offense. Williams has top-notch speed and explosiveness. His burst off the line of scrimmage is second to none. Shows elite ability after the catch due to his speed, quickness, and exclusiveness.
I don’t see why Williams couldn’t have a Dede Westbrook or Marquise Brown type of impact for the Sooners during his career. His size, speed, and ability to win deep are very similar to the aforementioned receivers. Prior to spring practice, I was concerned about Williams’s impact due to his size, but after having a really good spring, I’m fully on board with the freshmen receiver. Williams is a top option for C2C, especially depleted leagues with upcoming freshmen drafts. A potential three-year starter teamed with an elite offensive scheme and quarterback play elevates Williams. Currently, I’m a bigger fan of Williams for C2C than Devy. His potential college production and lack of ideal NFL size push him up for C2C. Williams ranks 8th for my incoming freshmen receivers for Devy purposes.
