Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Freshmen having big Springs
We had a big weekend of Spring Games and some true freshmen are having big impacts.
Jake Garcia, QB, Miami: Garcia shredded the ‘Canes secondary to the tune of 19-25 and 252 yards with 2 TDs. While Garcia looked really good, Miami’s secondary looked really bad at the same time. I like what I saw Saturday from the young quarterback, but I’m not ready to crown him like many already have. It’s a single Spring game against a secondary that didn’t look too interested in playing.
Raheim Sanders, RB, Arkansas: I highlighted Sanders last week in my “Freshmen Spotlight”. The former receiver now running back is making a name for himself this Spring. Nicknamed Rocket by the coaching staff, Sanders is a big back who can fly. Sanders has a ton of upside to his game.
Agiye Hall, WR, Alabama: Nobody had Twitter buzzing more than Hall last Saturday. Hall made a number of contested catches on his way to a 4-72 day. Hall showed every bit of his potential during the Alabama Spring Game. The young wideout looks poised to make an impact this Fall for the Crimson Tide.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Georgia: Mitchell is by far the lowest ranked freshman on this list. He had quite the G-Day Game, bringing in 7-105-1. With the loss of George Pickens for a large chunk if not the whole season, there are plenty of opportunities for the younger receivers to get on the field in the Fall. “We thought he was a talented player. We think we do as good of a job as anybody in the country at doing research on players and evaluating players,” Smart said. “It’s not about what they’re ranked, what the media, the recruiting rankings say about them. We watch the tape. The tape speaks volumes. In the case of Jordan Davis it spoke volumes. In the case of Adonai Mitchell it speaks volumes. These guys we evaluate ourselves, we thought he was a really good player. We didn’t care what anybody else thought. He’s a good football player. So we evaluated him, kept recruiting him.”
2. Mailbag
I’d like to read more about discerning value and implementing strategy in C2C. How do you determine when to pivot from NFL-upside to strict college producers. Are there edges to be had? Does it depend on your approach/build strategy? I have thoughts, but would like to hear more. I guess the big picture, it’s dialing in on the relative differences in Devy/CFF/C2C. Everyone knows the basics, but getting a little more in the weeds would be interesting. @DynastyWizardry
This is a subject I can speak about all day. I’ve got long-winded on this subject a number of times already but I’ve got no problem diving into it again. I got some strong views on how to draft your C2C team to win money.
To the first part of the question, when do I pivot to strictly college producers. Personally, I’m always looking for college producers. I lean strongly to Devy for my first five picks but the Devy prospects still have to have college upside for me. I will make very few picks that are strictly Devy. Once the 6th round hits, I’m leaning strongly to college producers. You can find some top college producers who still have decent Devy upside i.e. Mohammad Ibrahim, while he isn’t a Devy darling he’s still got some NFL upside with top-notch college fantasy production. I’ll snag prospects with some upside in the NFL for the next pick or two, then after round 9th/10th range I’m 100% going after college producers.
Rounds 1-5: Lean Devy with college production still in mind.
Rounds 6-8/9: Lean college production with Devy still slightly in mind.
Rounds 9/10-55: College production.
I believe there is a massive edge to be had by drafting college producers early and often. It’s much easier to accurately predict what players are going to produce this Fall compared to projecting one to four years down the road to NFL production. While Devy is fun, it’s not an exact science and we have a lot of unknown variables along the way. My Kevin Marks pick in the 8th-10th round will produce more fantasy points this Fall than Trey Sanders (4th/5th round pick) will score in his entire college and pro careers combined. Also, there are such a very select few college prospects that actually go on to be impactful fantasy producers. I’m talking about guys that will actually be a key contributor that helps you win on the NFL side. Take a look back at some old Devy drafts and just see how many actually pan out. I’ve seen C2C mocks with industry people and even they basically avoid pure college producers. People are still looking for a needle in a haystack with Devy picks in the 15th round of a draft instead of getting proven college producers. If you fully commit to winning the college side, you’ll only have a few competitors in your league, while everybody is gunning for the top spot on the NFL side. Some might be doing a productive struggle and not contending year one, they all attempt to win the NFL side one way or another. Very few teams can actually compete on the college side. Due to lack of CFF knowledge or just worried about stockpiling NFL talent. I’ve done one C2C startup draft this offseason and one maybe two teams in that league can truly compete with my college team (as long as I avoid a rash of injuries).
There are elite college fantasy producers that aren’t even being drafted in 15 round C2C mocks with “experts”. Personally, I’d target acquiring a lot of startup picks in the 8-15 round and heavily hammer the college producers while everybody else is still clinging to Devy picks. I’m anxiously awaiting CFF and C2C ADP to give a better list of guys to target. Following members of the CFF community will greatly aid in any C2C drafting/acquiring talent.
3. Mailbag
What are your thoughts on evaluating coaching history/scheme and whether it significantly impacts the expected and potential production of the players in that program? @Calan24
This is something that I like to take into consideration. A couple examples from last year – Harrison Bailey at Tennessee was a hot name but he was a must avoid for me. I didn’t trust the Tennessee coaching staff to develop any player, especially a QB. Another Vol that I actually was a big fan of was Malachi Wideman. Wideman was extremely raw. While I wanted to roster Wideman, I thought attending UT was a horrible decision for a raw prospect that needed coaching up. If Wideman ended up at Florida State (I believe he’s a comparable player to Tamorrion Terry), or a UNC type school I would have been all over drafting him last year. UCF has done a good job of developing receivers over Heupel’s time as the head coach. I am much more confident that Wideman can develop now.
If a prospect is on the rawer side and has more development needed, I definitely need to weigh coaching history into the equation more. It’s not quite as necessary with a more refined high school prospect. Certain schools and staff just have a poor track record of converting highly ranked recruits into NFL prospects. If a highly ranked prospect signs with Michigan, I’ll always have their developmental track record in mind. While any RB that signs with Wisconsin I’ll give the prospect a slight bump. Iowa has a real good track record of developing under-recruited TEs into top NFL Draft options. When the Hawkeyes sign a 3-star TE, I make sure to check them out.
4. Mailbag
People are going to be giddy over spring game highlights. What players that didn’t necessarily show out this spring should we not forget about and maybe get an adp discount on as others get pushed up? @T_RevIsRev
This is a really great question. Let’s start at Alabama. Agiye Hall had a highlight reel-filled game, but I have a strong feeling one of the second-year receivers for Bama is really going to breakout this Fall. All can be had at very cheap discounts compared to what Hall’s ADP is going to soar too. That’s a very vague answer, but I really don’t know, and I’m not sure even Alabama knows yet which of the second-year guys will be the go-to guy outside of Metchie. Traeshon Holden received 14 targets in John Metchie’s absence, he might be a good starting point. Another Crimson Tider is Brian Robinson. By all accounts, he’s the starting RB and everybody keeps targeting the younger backs behind him on the depth chart. Robinson is older with very little production after four years, but he’s got NFL talent. He’s just a victim of Najee Harris being great for three years.
My TE1 for 2022, Jeremy Ruckert, continues his descent down ADP. He’s continually overlooked due to his lack of production. The Buckeyes just don’t target the TE position and they have a surplus of talented wideouts. Ruckert is on the verge of falling to TE4 in the 2020 class in our ADP. He’s becoming a bigger steal each month as he falls. Even a guy like Master Teague is getting forgotten about. I’ll fully admit, Teague is very limited when it comes to his pro projection. He’s extremely stiff and doesn’t catch the ball, but Teague has a role in the NFL. He’s currently RB26 for the 2022 class in ADP. The young TreVeyon Henderson didn’t pop in the Ohio State Spring Game as I expected. Not to say he was bad, I just expected to see more, maybe my expectations were just set unrealistically.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next Fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. Lets shine a light on Missouri wide receiver, Dominic Lovett. Lovett is a 4-star prospect out of East Saint Louis High School in Illinois. He was a long time Arizona State commit before flipping to Mizzou. Due to COVID, Lovett didn’t have a senior season in the Fall. But as a junior in 2019, he hauled in 74-1536-17 on East Saint Louis’ way to a 6A State Title. The Tigers also signed QB Tyler Macon, Lovett’s high school QB from 2019. From the Spring of 2019, Lovett clocked a 4.65 40-yard dash and a 31” vertical, not earth-shattering numbers at 171lbs.
Lovett appears to play a bit faster than his testing numbers; he’s got above-average speed. Quicker than fast, Lovett shows good burst after the catch. His size and speed don’t “wow” you, but Lovett has a knack for getting open. He’s a good route runner and shows good explosion off the line of scrimmage.
Lovett looks to have played himself into a role in 2021 for the Tigers after his Spring performance. I don’t believe he’s in line to start, but he’s positioned himself well to get some rotational reps during games. Lovett will be looking at a potential starting role in 2022. Worth a stash in C2C leagues due to the potential of being a two or three year starter.
Coach’s take from Spring practice:
“Yeah, Dominic was given his number today. He’s just been consistent, playing with great effort, making plays. Made some explosive plays on Friday’s and Saturday’s practice and felt like he had earned the opportunity to wear number seven,” the Missouri coach said.
