Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Top QB Performers
@FBGChase has done a lot of great work on twitter with ANY/A with NFL passers. That gave me the idea of using this metric to gage college passers weekly. If you are unaware of this metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
It’s calculated as follows: ANY/A = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown) – sack yards) / (passing attempts + sacks)”
Here are the top 10 performers from week 13 of the CFB season out of 92 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
Another odd week with a handful of names that you wouldn’t expect to finish in the top 10. It was no surprise that Mac Jones topped the charts. This is Jones’ fourth performance that has landed in the 95th percentile or better for the year. Matt Corral finds himself inside the top 10 once again. Like Mac Jones, this is Corrals fourth game in the 95th percentile or better. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played ball in over a month and didn’t show an ounce of rust. He was basically flawless outside of taking three sacks. Kyle Trask rounds out the top ten with a pretty average afternoon for him. All four QBs list above is now inside the top five of the most valuable passers for the entire season.
Taulia Tagovailoa has been the tale of two QBs depending on what kind of defense he is facing. IU and Northwestern have two of the better passing defenses in the nation. In those two games, Taulia has tossed 1 TD to 6 INTs and barely completed over 5.5 YPA. While facing two very mediocre defenses he’s 6 TDs to 1 INTs and nearly 11 YPA. Don’t buy the fools’ gold this offseason with Taulia. Bo Nix finds himself inside the bottom 10 once again. The LSU/A&M showcased the 11th and 12th worst passing performances of the week. No surprises are given how horrible the offenses looked Saturday night. Kenny Pickett brought up the rear this last week. This was actually the 4th worse game of the year out of 887 passing performances with at least ten passing attempts.
2. Fools’ Gold?
The regular season is winding down with just two more weeks left to be played. We’ve seen a ton of names fly up the ranks but who’s the fools’ gold?
Zach Wilson – I was hesitant at first to believe in the Wilson hype, but I think he’s the QB3 now. While he’s QB3, he’s still a very distant third to Lawrence and Fields.
Javonte Williams – I don’t know how I feel about this one. Williams looked like he was running in molasses against the ND defense last Friday. While his teammate Michael Carter looked fast, quick, and almost busted off a few long runs. I’m leaning towards fools’ gold on Williams. Sure he can beat up on mid-level ACC defenses but he showed nothing against the Irish defense. In the clip below, it appeared Williams had an easy 5-10 yards at the handoff and was stuffed at the LOS with very little fight.
Elijah Moore – I’m fully on board with the Moore hype. Not to the point where I’d draft him over Rondale Moore (this take exists). Moore has been a dominant force on a dominant passing attack. Size is a bit concerning though.
Trey Lance – While he’s not a riser this Fall it needs to be said again. Lance is fools’ gold. I’m sure he’ll have great draft capital but so did Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and EJ Manuel.
3. Diamonds in the Rough
Avoiding fools’ gold is a must in rookie drafts while you need to mine some diamonds. Here are some draft-eligible prospects that can develop into a gold mine.
Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio St: Ruckert has all kinds of talent that don’t get displayed due to the Buckeyes scheme. If Ruckert went to Notre Dame or Iowa and was showcased properly we’d be talking about him much more. Unfortunately, he picked a school that only uses a TE as a decoy. His best ball is still ahead of him.
Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson: We all expected Frank Ladson or Joseph Ngata to step up in the absence of Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. But that hasn’t been the case. The vet Rodgers has shown up and been a force. He gave Notre Dame’s defense fits when attempting to tackle him. Depending on how well Amari does at the Combine, he’ll most likely be a 4th round or UDFA in your rookie drafts.
Brian Robinson, RB, Alabama: If it wasn’t for Najee Harris, Robinson would be a hot commodity. Robinson is gifted but just stuck behind one of the nation’s top RBs. Robinson will be a very cheap option in any rookie drafts. More than likely somebody you can pick up on the waiver wire post rookie draft.
4. BYU Vs Coastal Carolina
This is a very intriguing last-minute addition to the weekend. Both QBs (Zach Wilson and Grayson McCall) have been highly effective and have graded out top 10 in the nation in ANY/A for the season. The QBs get all the praise but both teams have WRs that have been efficient as well. At BYU, Gunner Romney and Dax Milne are both in the top 7 in the country in Yards Per Target. They both ranked inside the top 13 in the country at Yards Per Route Ran. Jaivon Heiligh is sitting inside the top 20 in the nation at Yards Per Team Passing Attempt and Yards Per Route Ran. Be sure to keep an eye out for the guys catching the balls from these highly regarded QBs.
5. I Got 5 On It
Oklahoma State (-2.5): Both defenses hold the edge over the opponent’s offense. I have more faith in the OK-St offense with its playmakers to score some points. Despite dropping 59 points on the KU defense last week, TCU’s passing attack was lackluster.
Memphis (+1.5): Pretty evenly matched game, the Tigers do hold the edge in explosiveness. Passing and overall explosiveness they hold a big edge over the Tulane defense. I’d take the Tigers with the money line with very little issue. I think the big playmakers on the outside for the Tigers give them the edge this week.
Penn State (-11.5): The Nittany Lions found some success last weekend against Michigan. I think they keep that up and roll against Rutgers. Rutgers has been a great story this year but I believe Penn State just has too much talent for them.
Oklahoma (-22.5): I can’t envision Baylor scoring enough points to hang with this OU offense. Baylor is bringing a squirt gun to a pistol duel.
Alabama (-28.5): Alabama is just too good. The loss of Terrace Marshall sets this LSU offense back. They are already hampered by tFR QB play. Not a good scenario for this Saturday for the Tigers. The Tide should be able to hit big plays in the passing game as much as they want to.
