Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
Here are the top 10 performances from week 9 of the CFB season out of 112 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
Caleb Williams absolutely blew away the field this week. Nobody was in the same ballpark. Ended up being the 3rd best day of the entire season so far. A week after having the best game of the entire season, Sam Hartman follows that up by having the third-best game of WK9. Malik Willis finally did a thing, but UMass is currently the 130th ranked team in ANY/A. Just not a lot that I can take away from a game against a glorified FCS defense. Clayton Tune finished second on the week after a really slow start to his season. Tune was great in the victory over rival SMU. Taulia Tagovailoa had his best game in over a month but still wasn’t good enough to cover the -4 against IU with a first-time starting tFR QB (WTF). Tyler Van Dyke kept up a hot string of games with the 14th best performance of the weekend in the U’s upset victory over Pitt. Overall, it was a below-average week for QB play according to ANY/A.
My boy, Layne Hatcher, was the bottom dog of the week. I can’t get a grip on Hatcher. When he comes off the bench he’s lights out but when he starts the game he’s meh. Anthony Richardson was going to solve all the world’s problems, well, besides the UGA defense. AR15 finished as the 4th worst QB on the weekend. Future “Top 10 Pick” Will Levis didn’t fare much better, finishing the weekend in the bottom 6. I’ll have more on Levis in the next section. Payton Thorne finished inside the bottom 10 despite pulling off the upset victory over the Wolverines. Desmond Ridder delivered his third straight “meh” game. Finishing barely above-average for the weekend.
2. Will Levis
Remember back when Levis was good? No? Me neither, but he did have an above-average day against ULM, with their defense mirroring the ’85 Bears. Since the opening contest, Levis has been on a downward spiral as comparable as the pretty tight spiral he uses to overthrow his receivers.
Levis has been heavily coddled by the UK play calls. Over 60% of his passing attempts have gone for 10 or less air yards. 19th most out of qualifying QBs. UK knows Levis can’t throw deep so they dink and dunk with him. Levis has received plenty of praise for his deep throws. Levis has only completed 10 of 31 attempts that travel 20 yards or more in the air. That’s a whopping 32.3%, 90th in the nation for qualified passers. But Greg, I’m sure he’s had a ton of drops. It’s not his fault. Levis’ adjusted completion percentage ranks 104th in the nation. The UK signal caller has tossed 4 INTs on 20+ yard balls, 5th most in the nation.
On passes that travel at least 10 yards in the air, Levis is still below 50% completion rate. Ranking 51st out of 103 qualifying QBs. His 8 INTs on such passes rank 4th most out of that 103 QBs.
Any way you cut the mustard, Levis just hasn’t been good in 2021. Outside of throwing a pretty deep ball that rarely lands in the hands of his receivers he doesn’t have much going for him.
3. MACtion
Our first exposure to MACtion in 2021 was great. QBs had their way with defenses this week. Every QB on the week had an above-average ANY/A besides my boy Kaleb Eleby (crying Michael Jordan face). Brett Gabbert tossed 5 TDs and Rocky Lombardi threw for over 500 yards. We saw the overs hit in four out of five matchups. Three underdogs by at least a TD pulled off an upset. Also a head coach was fired!
Key performers:
Hassan Beydoun, WR, EMU: 12-197-2 after a slow start to the season Beydoun is heating up.
Bryant Koback, RB, Toledo: 15-180-2. Former Kentucky Wildcat that has carved out a nice career for the Rockets.
Justin Hall, WR, Ball State: 8-73-1 & 4-30-1. Four-year producer for the Cardinals. Gets a ton of work around the LOS. Hasn’t been much of a deep threat during his time in Muncie.
Jack Sorenson, WR, Miami (OH): 14-283-2. Sorenson has been the Redhawks only receiving option for two years now.
Lew Nichols, RB, CMU: 26-163-2. Local Detroit kid who had some P5 offers is showing out in his first chance as the full-time starter for the Chips.
Kalil Pimpleton, WR, CMU: 5-115-1 & 3-166-2 on punt returns. Formerly a VT Hookie, Pimpleton has developed into one of the best MAC WRs.
Trayvon Rudolph, WR, NIU: 14-309-3. The second year receiver is a former walk-on who earned a starting role as tFR in 2020.
4. Playoff Resume
Let’s venture down the resume road. Taking opponents faced thus far and looking at SP+ ratings.
*Taking out FCS teams faced.
The biggest travesty in the history of College Football happened on Tuesday Night. The Cincinnati Bearcats were ranked 6th! I agree with the ranking 100%. Cincy hasn’t played near the schedule compared to the rest of the top ten. Their resume outside of Notre Dame is ‘meh’. Which win makes you chub up just a bit? Beating a trash IU team? A narrow 7 point victory over Navy or the defeat of Tulane and their 3rd string tFR QB making his first start? Honestly, the big shock of this list is the Crimson Tide with the second-best resume so far. Their average opponent is a top 30 team compared to Cincy’s average opponent being 84th according to SP+ rating system. The Irish have had a tough schedule to date, but that is going to start slipping with their future opponents.
5. I Got Five On It
Year: 18-27
Last Week: 1-4
Well my ass F’n sucks with my ATS picks this year. So let’s pivot to something else going forward. No sense in wasting your time and my time on something that’s just going to be wrong. For this week I’ll take a look at five pivotal/intriguing matchups.
Liberty @ Ole Miss (-9.5): A very intriguing Group of 5 vs Power 5 matchup. Both teams have potential 1st Round QBs, while I don’t agree with the hype surrounding one of the QBs, I can’t deny an NFL team most likely drafts Malik Willis very high. Ole Miss enters this game with the 88th defense against the pass (according to ANY/A). Liberty’s defense ranks 7th but the level of competition faced is nowhere near the same. The real mismatch is going to be SEC level rushers going against Liberty’s offensive line. Willis doesn’t do his line many favors either against the pass rush.
Wake Forest @ North Carolina (-2.5): Both teams roll in with top 10 offenses facing off against defense outside the top 50. Sam Hartman has been on fire the last two weeks. UNC heads into this matchup with the 76th ranked passing defense to WFs 4th ranked passing attack. UNC has the massive edge rushing the ball against WF’s defense. I think the Deacons find a way to pull off this slight upset victory.
Auburn @ Texas A&M (-4.5): A&M has one of the most dominating pass defenses in the nation. Bo Nix is going to need a lot of magic to have a successful day in College Station. Both teams enter Saturday’s matchup at the back end of the top 50 against the rush. Whoever can get their ground game going the most effectively will play a big part in the end result.
Michigan State (-3) @ Purdue: This looks like a major trap spot for MSU but Purdue’s offense is just awful. The Boilermakers rank dead last in the nation at explosive run rate and bottom ten in percent of rushing attempts converted into 1st downs. The return of Zander Horvath should give them a slight boost, but I’m not sure we’ll see a significant uptick in success. Overall, Purdue is last in the country at explosive play rate. I want this to be a trap game for a somewhat fluky MSU team, but I just can’t bring myself to do it.
Tennessee @ Kentucky (-1): Looking at ANY/A the Vols have a major edge on UK. The QB spot could be the difference in this one. Hendon Hooker has had a really nice bounce-back season compared to Will Levis who’s been mediocre at best since the ULM game. UK has the slight edge on defense while UT has the major edge on the offensive side of the ball. I’m expecting a really fun and entertaining game with the Vols pulling off the upset.
