Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
Here are the top 10 performances from week 10 of the CFB season out of 126 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
Houston Coogs QB, Clayton Tune sits atop the leaderboard this week. The U’s Tyler Van Dyke comes in 2nd on the week and continues to impress. He now ranks top 20 on the season in ANY/A. Chandler Morris in his first career start lit up the field and might be pushing Max Duggan out of his starting role. Aidan O’Connell and Purdue show up when it matters the most. O’Connell’s best games of the year have come in upset victories over Iowa and Michigan State. Hendon Hooker continues his senior year resurgence. Hooker would have slid into the second spot this week if it wasn’t for taking 5 sacks against the Wildcats. Stetson Bennett continues to be uber efficient. He ranks 8th nationally in ANY/A now. Six of the top twenty QBs in week 10 came from MACtion games!
On the flip side of the performance map we find Malik Willis. In his “showcase game,” Willis finished second-worst on the week. It also was the 11th worst game of the season out of 1232 qualifying performances. Just one spot ahead of Willis on the week was Bo Nix. His up and down nature of play continues. One spot in front of Nix was Layne Hatcher. He once again shows to be a night and day performer. His appearances coming off of the bench are tremendous, but he falls flat on his face when asked to start. First round draft hopeful Carson Strong also was a bottom ten performer on the weekend. I’m a Strong supporter, but I expected much better from him in 2021 than what he’s displayed so far.
2. Post Game Win Expectancy
Using Bill Connelly’s Post Game Win Expectancy data let’s take a look at who’s been lucky and unlucky thus far.
*Data is pre-WK11 MACtion
Utah State has been the luckiest team in the nation so far. They’ve won three games this season already where they’ve had a less than 25% PGWE. Including WK8 against Colorado State where they finished with a 4% PGWE thanks to the coaching of Steve Addazio. That has been the luckiest win in 2021 to date. The Aggies have won 7 games on the season with an expected 4 wins. NIU is the only other team in the nation with a three-game differential to the luck side. They’ve won three games with a sub 40% PGWE.
The Cal Bears find themselves on the unlucky side of PGWE. They’ve lost three games with a PGWE of over 50%. Ranging from 50-58% all three games would be considered toss-ups. The Miami (OH) Redhawks have been even more unlucky. They have found themselves on the wrong side of 3 games with over a 60% PGWE. Possibly the most unlucky team in 2021 has been Toledo. Losing three games with a PGWE of over 65%. Including losing against EMU when they had a 90% PGWE. My season total of the over on the Rockets isn’t looking good. The most unlucky loss of the season belongs to Tulsa. Losing to UC Davis when they have a 99.6% PGWE.
3. Logan Diggs
The tFR back has earned playing time over the last month of the season. He’s playing in a sub role of Kyren Williams while Chris Tyree has been sidelined with a toe injury. Just a feeling, but I think Diggs is the Irish RB1 next season. I feel he’s the more complete back and can maintain a lead role. I don’t expect Diggs to dominate the workload, but I’d expect him to receive a bigger role than Tyree in 2022. Diggs is a really good back that you need to add in your C2C leagues (you are out of luck if we are in a C2C league together).
My High School review of Diggs:
Diggs had a big final year of high school. He only rushed for 832 yards and added 203 yards as a receiver, but this was enough to earn a late offer from the in-state LSU Tigers. After some consideration, Diggs stuck to his ND commit. He finished ranked by 247 as the 35th back in the class. Diggs doesn’t have the sheer size of Audric Estime (backfield classmate), but he’s the quicker and more slippery of the two incoming backs. Diggs lacks top-end speed but runs with good power for a sub-200lbs back. Shows good vision and patience. Diggs is very good in the passing game and will be a pass-catching asset in college.
4. Should They Stay or Should They Go?
Spencer Rattler: After getting benched and rumors that have always swirled about Rattler being a poor teammate, I can’t see him getting good draft capital. Rattler needs to stick in college for one more year and find a new home. Shoot, you don’t think his NIL money in Lincoln, Nebraska would rival his first-year rookie money?
Jayden Daniels: He’s another QB that needs to stick around for one more year in college. I was hyped on Daniels following his tFR season, but he hasn’t continued his upward trajectory. Daniels has to be a late Day 3 prospect at best at the moment.
Kedon Slovis: I can’t imagine this is even up for debate right now, but Slovis needs another year. I’m not sure he ever develops into a legit NFL QB. Declining production and having arm strength issues isn’t a draft stock riser. Plus he’s been riddled with injuries as well. Most likely forced out by Jaxson Dart, Slovis would be a great G5 QB. Fresno State might be in the market for a new starting QB.
Brock Purdy: Just for fun, I’d like to see Purdy back in college for one more year. Purdy probably goes down as the best Cyclone QB in school history. Another year would be fun to watch to see if ISU can stay relevant with the likely loss of Breece Hall.
Grayson McCall: I love what McCall brings to the table, but I’m not quite sure how it translates to the pros. Scheme and the step up in competition will be difficult for McCall. For the sake of college football, I’d love to see one more year of McCall and CCU.
5. I Got Five On It
#6 Michigan (-1) @ Penn State: If Michigan wins out they are in. A 12-1 B1G Champ with a win over the Buckeyes is plenty to get ranked over Cincinnati. Looking at ANY/A, UM has a pretty significant edge over the Nittany Lions. PSU’s offense ranks near the 90s while UM’s defense rolls into this matchup top 15. Both teams bolster a top 15 defense. Should be a low-scoring affair. UM needs Blake Corum to be healthy and suited up. I think the Wolverines pull out a very tight one.
#8 Oklahoma (-5.5) @ #13 Baylor: Much like Michigan, I think if OU wins out they are in. I think we’ll see plenty of dominos fall over the final three weeks that would allow an undefeated Big 12 Champ to move its way up. Each offensive unit in this matchup has the edge over the defense. OU’s 115th ranked passing defense could be the difference in this one. The Sooners ranked 129th in the nation at Pass Defenses percentage (INT + Pass Breakup). Gerry Bohanon has been sneaky good but has been up and down. As Lee Corso would say, I think this one will be closer than the experts think.
#19 Purdue @ #4 Ohio State (-20.5): Can the Spoilmakers make a third appearance in 2021? It’s going to be really hard. Purdue has really lacked firepower on offense this year. Aidan O’Connell and David Bell have both played their best in big-time games in 2021. As much as I’d love to see more chaos, I don’t think it happens again. CJ Stroud and the rest of the Buckeyes’ offensive weapons will just be too much for Purdue to overcome.
#11 Texas A&M (-2.5) @ #13 Ole Miss: Say the Crimson Tide slip up in the Iron Bowl, guess who has the tiebreaker over the Tide? The Aggies must continue to win with the possibility of sliding into that SEC Title Game. Then the Aggies upset the Dawgs and guess who’s stealing themselves a CFP spot. The Rebels O vs the Aggies D is a top 10 pairing. A healthy Matt Corral goes a long way in deciding this game. A&M ranks 90th in passing offense and will need to find some Zach Calzada magic like they did against ‘Bama.
#9 Notre Dame (-5) @ Virginia: As an Irish fan I’m terrified at the possibility of ND stumbling into that 4 seed after November chaos ensues. I do not need to watch my Irish get vaporized by the Georgia Bulldogs. I just have a really really bad feeling that that’s going to happen. Give me the 5th seed with a matchup against Michigan in the NY6 Bowl Game. Health status will play a big factor in this game. I imagine Brennan Armstrong is going to play, but how effective will he be if he indeed broke a rib or two? The status of Kyle Hamilton is another important storyline. I personally believe KH14 is making a business decision and sitting out the rest of the season. ND should pull out the W. UVA’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed right now. ND has found some recent success with its rushing attack after shuffling the OL leading up to the VTech game.
