Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
Here are the top 10 performances from week 8 of the CFB season out of 108 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
Sam Hartman screwed around and had the best QB performance of the year, by a lot. His value added in Week 8 was nearly as much as the 2nd and 3rd place QBs combined. Majority of the top ten didn’t have many sexy names to talk about. Brennan Armstrong and this UVA offense are an extremely fun watch. After a few down weeks, Armstrong bounced back with a nice showing. CJ Stroud has been lights out since his return from injury. His last three weeks have been as good as anybody in the country. I have zero doubts that he’s the starting Buckeye QB in 2022. Layne Hatcher had a top 15 day and continues to play really well when given the chance to play over James Blackman.
Polar opposite of Hartman was Memphis’ Peter Parrish. Parrish had by far the worst game of the week and the year. He was just terrible in his starting debut. DJU had another bottom 15 showing in Week 8. I knew there’d be a slight step back after TLaw left but nothing like this. Desmond Ridder put on a show against Navy by finishing outside the top 70 on the weekend. Somehow he continues to get 1st round buzz.
2. Malik Willis
All season we’ve heard the excuse that Willis is playing behind a bad offensive line. All his sack issues are because of his OL but are they?
Saturday Night Willis left Liberty’s game for roughly two quarters with an injury. In the meantime, his backup, Jonathan Bennett, came in and threw 18 passes. In those 18 attempts, Bennett took ZERO sacks. Ironically, Willis also attempted 18 passes on the night, but he took SIX sacks. Willis had 3.49 seconds to throw a pass compared to Bennett’s 2.96 seconds against North Texas. This is and always has been a Malik’s problem. PFF rates Liberty as the 40th best pass blocking team in the nation. PFF credits 25% of Malik’s pressures to himself. That’s the 11th most in the nation for a QB. 34% of Malik’s pressures turn into sacks, third most in the nation. Willis has had over half a second longer per throw compared to the two QBs in front of him. Somehow Jack Coan and Malik Willis’ sack rates are nearly identical when one is light years better of an athlete.
3. Spooky Good
*All stats don’t have FCS games taken into account
Over one-third of Cincinnati’s, Mississippi State’s, and Oregon State’s rushing attempts go for first downs (Not including sacks as rushing attempts).
Coastal Carolina, Ohio State, and Georgia are the only teams in the country where at least 40% of their passing attempts go for first downs. If you remove Service Academies they are also the only three teams with over 15% of their passes considered to be explosive (20+ yards).
Ohio State leads the nation at 39% of their offensive plays turning into first downs.
Only Georgia and Colorado State allow less than 20% of passes to go for first downs.
Wisconsin only gives up a rushing first down on 11% of attempts, 5% better than the second-place team (OK State). The Badgers have only given up 6 rushes of over 10 yards on the season.
Georgia, Wisconsin, San Diego State, and Colorado State are the only teams to allow less than 20% of total plays to go for first downs.
Florida State, Arizona State, and Ohio State lead the nation in percent of rushes for over 10 yards.
Wisconsin, Clemson, Georgia, Iowa, and Michigan State are the only teams in the nation to allow an explosive offensive play on less than 8% of snaps.
Ohio State is the only team in the nation whose offense has a 10% differential from its defense on explosive plays.
Troy creates a Tackle For Loss on 16% of plays on defense, 4% higher than the second-place team (Colorado State). The Trojans also lead the nation in Havoc Created.
4. Spooky Bad
*All stats don’t have FCS games taken into account
Oklahoma is dead last in the nation at only defensing (INT or Pass Breakup) 5.2% of passing attempts. Ohio State leads the nation at just over 18%.
Kansas and Akron create a Tackle For Loss on less than 5% of defensive plays. Both are also dead last in the nation at Havoc Created.
Purdue ranks last in the nation only creating an explosive offensive play 7.2% of the time. They’ve only managed to create 13 runs of over 10 yards on the season.
Akron, Kansas, and Arkansas State are the only teams in the nation to allow an explosive play on over 19% of defensive snaps.
Charlotte allows an explosive pass on 18% of plays, last in the nation. The Missouri Tigers give up an explosive rush on 21.3% of rushing attempts, third to last for the country.
Kansas gives up a first down on 42% of passing plays. Akron allows a rushing first down on 35% of attempts. Both last in the nation.
Colorado only gets a first down on 18.8% of plays, dead last in the nation.
UConn and Colorado are the only teams that haven’t converted at least 20% of pass plays into first downs.
Rice converts 14.5% of rushes into first downs, last in the nation. Notre Dame hasn’t fared much better. They rank 126th at 17.2%. Stanford comes in at 125th, this isn’t your older sister’s Stanford team.
5. I Got Five On It
Year: 17-23
Last Week: 1-4
Last week was a frustrating week littered by close losses (other than OUs crap showing against Kansas). At some point, my luck has to bounce back!
Lines Via BETMGM Indiana
Navy (+11): Navy has looked much over the last handful of weeks. They kept it close with Cincinnati last weekend. I think Navy can keep this one very tight, maybe even pull out the W.
Iowa (+3.5): I think Iowa is just the better team. I don’t trust Wisconsin’s offense one bit. Graham Mertz vs this secondary is an absolute nightmare.
Pitt (-9.5): If Pitt wants to somehow make the playoffs, they have to overcome that loss to WMU. They have to beat up on their remaining opponents. Despite numerous injuries, Miami has been hanging tight in games, and that gives me a bit of scare.
Kansas (+30.5): I’m not sure how OKST scores enough points to cover this number. Especially if KU scores 7-10 points. Might be an emotional letdown spot for the Jayhawks, but OKST has struggled all season long. They’ve only scored over 31 once this year and that includes games against Missouri State and Tulsa.
San Diego St. (-1): Fresno hasn’t been the same team since upsetting UCLA (and UCLA isn’t as good as we thought they were). SDSU has one of the best defenses and possibly the best punter in the nation. SDSU is basically the Iowa of the west coast right now. Their luck will run out at some point but not this weekend.
