Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
Here are the top 10 performers from week 6 of the CFB season out of 109 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
(Click to enlarge)
Grayson McCall had another really great week. He currently sits as the top QB so far in 2021 and his Wk6 performance was the third-best to date in 2021. CJ Stroud has had back-t0-back terrific weeks. He currently has two of the seven best games of the year. I don’t see Stroud giving up this job anytime soon. He’s performed too well for Quinn Ewers to snag that job in 2022. MSUs Payton Thorne has had a lowkey great season. He currently sits as the sixth-best QB in the nation according to ANY/A. MSU hasn’t had this kind of QB plays in years if ever really. Carson Strong had his best showing of the young season. He needs to keep producing like this if he wants to go 1st round in this year’s draft.
Ta’Quan Roberson comes in with the second-worst game of the week. He was thrown into a tough spot against a tough defense. It wasn’t pretty. My boy, Taulia, came out with the 12th worst game of the week. He once again struggled to throw downfield. He was 3-8 with 2 INTs but his completion % got fluffed up once again with 28 passes that traveled less than 10 yards.
“QB1” Malik Willis had some highlight-reel plays against MTSU but ended up with the 19th worst game of the year. Much like Taulia, Malik struggled with his downfield passing. He went 6-15 with 3 INTs against an average at best MTSU passing defense. Kaleb Eleby had a bottom 15 showing pretty much ending my hopes of Eleby moving up draft boards. That pipedream is looking to be over now.
2. CJ Stroud
Stroud has been magnificent since his return from a shoulder injury. He’s lit up both Rutgers and Maryland. Not powerhouses but still legit P5 opponents. For the season Stroud has completed 58% of his passes that travel 10 yards or more downfield (7th best in the nation). That’s including 7 dropped passes (tied for the 7th most). He isn’t dinking and dunking his way down the field either. Almost 55% of his passing attempts travel 10 yards or more downfield (4th most in the nation). Compared to a Taulia who’s going throwing balls downfield on 30% of his attempts.
I can’t envision a scenario where a healthy Stroud is dethroned by Quinn Ewers in 2022. If Ohio State is winning and Stroud is performing well he isn’t losing his job. Ewers has a ton of talent but so does Stroud and Stroud has the massive advantage in experience.
3. Most Valuable QBs
Grayson McCall has been nearly perfect to start the 2021 season. CCUs strength of schedule is near the bottom in the nation. McCall is going to be in for a rude awakening once he steps onto a pro field. I like McCall but it’s going to be a big leap for him. Payton Thorne coming in 6th is probably a bit of a surprise to most everybody but he’s been really good for Sparty. He’s given them an element that MSU hasn’t had in a long time at the QB spot. Can’t say I expect Max Bortenschlager or Gerry Bohannon to stick around this high this long but I expect to see a bit of a dip from those two. Seth Henigan being top 12 as a tFR is very impressive. Grant Gunnell is about to be onto his third school in as many years in 2022. Recent NFL Draft darling Hendon Hooker finds himself just outside the top 15. He’s really turned around that Vols offense since taking over. First-round hopefuls Carson Strong and Malik Willis find themselves hovering around the top 20. Willis has been sacked 11.5% of his dropbacks (7th most in the nation). He’s only half a percent away from Jack Coan. Both QBs are on opposite ends of the spectrum athleticism-wise. That’s really not a great sign for Willis.
Glaring omissions from the list…
Sam Howell ranks 30th so far in 2021. He’s been a top 15 QB each of the last two seasons. Sacks are killing Howell, he’s taken 23 already. Jayden Daniels rolls in 34th spot. The lack of TDs is holding him back. I was a big fan of Daniels following his tFR season but he just hasn’t developed much since. JT Daniels comes in 50th he’s being pushed down some by the lack of passing attempts. Will Levis, Kaleb Eleby, and Spencer Rattler come in 61st, 62nd, and 63rd. Rattler is the last QB that’s just above the national average, wow. Others receiving draft buzz this summer that rank outside the top 65 and below the average mark are Dustin Crum, Kedon Slovis, Bo Nix, Emory Jones, and Michal Pratt.
Scraping the bottom of the barrel…
Outside the top 100, we find names like D’Eriq King, McKenzie Milton, DJ Uiagalelei, Graham Mertz, and Michael Penix Jr. It’s not been a pretty year for B1G QB play. Out of their 16 qualifying QBs 10 rank outside the top 50. With 5 ranking in the bottom 30 of all QBs.
4. tFR Not Producing Like You Think They Will
Remember when Tyler Bucher, Sam Huard, JJ McCarthy, Donovan Edwards, and Agiye Hall all were going to start this year? Yeah, that didn’t happen. Much like every other year. We hype tFR to the moon and they don’t play as much as we expect. Shiny toy syndrome. Not every tFR is ready to play. It was so far fetched that Buchner wasn’t ready when I preached that all Winter, Spring, and Summer. He’s thrown 3 INTs on 20 ATTs and been erratic on his other throws. Blake Corum playing over Donovan Edwards was pure blasphemy all offseason. Outside of TreVeyon Henderson, Xavier Worthy, Raheim Sanders, and Alton McCaskill we haven’t had a lot of tFR making big impacts thus far. LSUs Deion Smith, when healthy, has made some plays as well as his teammate Jack Bach. Caleb Williams has his chance to be the next big tFR to break out. His teammate Mario Williams has shown some small flashes’.
Realistic expectations are key. We don’t as a community don’t have them for incoming freshman. We hype them to the moon but once reality hits and they don’t play now they are “busts”. Don’t waste early draft capital on tFR with little access to early playing time. How are Julian Fleming owners feeling two years after using a top pick on him?
5. I Got Five On It
Year: 13-17
Last Week: 1-4 (shit emoji)
Lines Via BETMGM Indiana
Last week was a disaster. That saw a Sean Clifford injury and a Troy collapse derail the week. Fortunately, my real bets are going a bit better by getting them in on Sundays before the lines move over the course of the week.
Indiana/Michigan St (o48.5): The Spartans have been excellent at hitting big plays this season. Last week Sparty had four TDs over 60 yards. Honestly, Jack Tuttle can’t be worse than what Michael Penix has put on the field this year. Tuttle could give IU a small boost on offense. If Penix does play, that sets up Sparty with good field position with his couple of guaranteed INTs.
Texas A&M (-9): I hate picking A&M coming after the big upset of Alabama but the Tigers run defense is trash right now. According to my adjusted yards per rush metric, the Tigers have the worst rush defense in the nation. Mizz also allows an explosive rush on 20% of rushing attempts, third-worst in the nation. If the Aggies pound the rock with Isaiah Spiller I think they can avoid the letdown spot.
Pitt (-5): VTech is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Irish. Pitt has been the best passing attack in the nation so far, albeit against weak competition. This game projects closer to 8 points for me. I’ll ride the hot hand with the Pitt passing attack.
Washington State (+2): Purely a numbers play here. I have WSU favored by 5 points at home. SP+ has it closer to 6 points. I don’t have a really good feel for either team but I’m following the numbers.
Wisconsin (-14): Both teams are excellent at stopping the run. Both defenses rank top two in the nation at allowing the lowest percent of rushes to go for first downs. Wisconsin has the massive talent edge. I think they’ll be able to run the ball much better than Army.
