Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, and interesting stats.
1. Top QB Performers
If you are unaware of the ANY/A metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.”
Here are the top 10 performers from week 4 of the CFB season out of 130 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
Not a week with a lot of amazing QB performances. All three of the top scorers this week faced FCS opponents. Tyler Van Dyke made his first start but Central Connecticut State isn’t exactly a measuring stick. Kenny Pickett sits atop the list and has had a great start to his season but facing the likes of UMass, Tennessee, Western Michigan, and New Hampshire don’t get me too excited. If Pickett keeps up this play in conference play this might be a different story then. Really nobody in the top 10 this week faced even an average defense. It’s not an exciting list of performances. We do find two tFR just outside the top 10 this week though. Kyle McCord finished 11th but it was Akron. I’m pretty sure a walkon with OSU’s WR talent could have a good day against Akron. They made people believe in Bo Nix for a week for Christ’s sake. Seth Henigan finished just behind McCord and ranks as the 6th best passer on the season so far. Spencer Sanders jinxed my take last week “The Wildcats held Carson Strong in check last week so it’ll only be logical that Spencer Sanders lights them up this weekend”. Well, it happened and hurt my bank account. Sanders finished top 15 and was his best showing for the year. KJ Jefferson had another top 20 performance. Back-to-back weeks with an 80-yard TD to Treylon Burks helps a lot.
Tanner Morgan had the fifth-worst day of the week. That’s how the Gophers lose to Bowling Green. Just one spot better we find a fellow B1Gw QB in Graham Mertz. Wow, did Mertz fool everybody with that Illinois performance last season. The writing has been on the wall though since the ending of 2020. McKenzie Milton finished with another bottom 15 showing. If you want some laughs, Twitter search Milton’s name around the FSU Spring Game and see the takes. Kedon Slovis found himself a few slots lower than Milton. He’s another one who fooled us with his tFR season. I’ll admit I fell for him hard. Spencer Rattler came in 90th place for the week. What the hell is going on in Norman? Rattler’s talent and the talent surrounding him alone should propel him to top 30 showings. Speaking about what the hell, DJU comes in outside the top 100 again! He’s not performed above the 50th percentile once this year! That includes a game against FCS South Carolina State. I was slightly lower on DJU than the general consensus (I still had him as a top 15 Devy asset), but I couldn’t have imagined anything like this. Something is broken in Clemson (obvious alert).
2. Taulia Tagovailoa
No QB has had a flukey(ier) start than Taulia. He’s amongst the nation’s leaders in completion percentage at 75.5%. These numbers are heavily fluffed up by 34.5% of Taulia’s passing attempts going behind the line of scrimmage (3rd most in the country). Maryland’s coaches know that Taulia’s deep accuracy isn’t his strength so they lean heavily on short yardage throws. Once Taulia is forced to throw balls more than 10 yards down the field his accuracy drops to 44% (outside the top 75 in qualified passers). That’s a 31% difference from his overall completion percentage, the biggest drop in the nation (3rd on that list is DJU). Taulia’s 6.7 aDOT is bottom ten in the nation right now. 69% of TTs throws travel less than 10 yards in the air compared to CJ Stroud who throws 55.5% of his passes 10 yards or more (5th most in the nation). Almost 70% of Taulia’s yards are due to Yards After the Catch. On the surface level, Taulia’s early stats are extremely impressive. Once you start to take into account the difficulty of his throws and the defenses faced it’s been a very average start. The one nice thing I can say about TT is that he currently ranks 10th in the nation at completion percentage while under pressure.
I fully expect Taulia to be exposed tonight against the Iowa defense. The Heisman hype surrounding TT is beyond laughable at this point.
3. Josh McCray
McCray is a tFR RB at Illinois who’s quietly broke onto the scene over the first month of the season. Over the last two games, McCray has rushed for 32-216-1. Below is my write-up on McCray from this past May.
“McCray was the first prospect to commit to new Head Coach Bret Bielema. McCray had a handful of offers from mid-level SEC schools but decided to venture north from Alabama to Illinois. Only a few of his offers were for the RB position, but Illinois gave him the chance to play tailback. During high school, McCray started games at RB, WR, LB, and S. In 2020, McCray rushed for 111-774-11 (7 YPC) and caught another 28-440-6. Listed at 210lbs, McCray has a thick lower base of a running back. McCray has above-average speed and lacks long speed.
Outlook: McCray is a raw prospect with good upside. Illinois is set in 2021 with Chase Brown at the helm. Following 2021, it’s up in the air. I don’t think McCray will be ready to compete for the RB1 role in 2022, but he can find his way onto the field. McCray is an interesting prospect to keep tabs on his development. He’s in a great scheme for college production. “
I can almost guarantee that in your casual C2C league McCray is still on the waiver wire. Go and grab him now. I grabbed him in one league this week but was too late in my other leagues (Damn you, Francis). He’s trending to being the lead back and he’ll give you good production in a run-heavy offense for the next three years. At 6’1” 240lbs he’s a wet dream for a coach like Bret Bielema.
4. QB Matchups
We have some “top” QBs in line for big games this weekend. It’s getting to the point where we can separate the legit QB prospects from the posers.
Matt Corral Vs Alabama: Alabama ranks 21st national defending the pass according to ANY/A. By far the steepest defense against the pass that he’s faced in 2021. Corral has been the best looking QB in 2021 this game can go a long way in sealing up the QB1 spot for Corral.
Desmond Ridder Vs Notre Dame: I’ve been firmly in the Desmond Ridder is a pretender category for over a year now. He faces the Irish defense that ranks 10th in defensive ANY/A. Both FBS schools he’s faced in 2021 have ranked outside the top 75. I think it’s going to be a really long afternoon for Ridder passing the ball.
Taulia Tagovailoa Vs Iowa: I’ve already talked a ton about Taulia but Iowa ranks 11th in the nation against the pass.
JT Daniels Vs Arkansas: Daniels has had his way with lesser defenses this season. Arkansas comes in 7th in the nation against the pass. This will possibly be Daniels’ toughest test over the Clemson defense who ranks 24th currently.
Malik Willis Vs UAB: UAB only ranks 74th right now but if you take out the aerial assault that UGA did to that defense it ranks closer to the top 40 range. This could shape up to be Willis’ toughest defense of the year.
5. I Got Five On It
Year: 9-11
Last Week: 2-3
Lines Via BETMGM Indiana
Michigan (+2): I have this game graded with Michigan as a 4 point favorite. So either Vegas is off or I’m a sucker here. Wisconsin’s offense has been horrible against their two P5 opponents. Graham Mertz has been one of the worst P5 starting QBs dating back to his return from COVID late in 2020. UM didn’t look pretty against Rutgers but still much more respectable than UW’s offense.
SMU (-21): Fresh off an upset of TCU this might be a letdown spot for the Mustangs. SMU holds a massive edge in the passing game. They rank 12th in ANY/A to USF’s defense’s 121st ranking. SMU has dominated inferior teams in 2021. I expect the Mustangs to keep their offense rolling and to beat up on the Bulls through the air.
Army (-7.5): Grabbed this game when it opened at -4. I rated this game closer to Army -14. Even with a banged up QB for Army that’s too much value to pass up. Ball State’s offense has looked really ugly to start the season. As an overall offense, they rank 122nd in my adjusted YPA and outside of Penn State they haven’t faced the stiffest schedule.
Baylor (+3.5): This is another game where I have the underdog rated as the favorite. So either I’m onto something here or I’m getting duped big time. Baylor has been very good against poor competition outside of Iowa State. OKST hasn’t looked very pretty outside of last week’s game against K-State. Spencer Sanders got me last weekend. He can’t possibly do it twice in a row, can he?
Penn State (-13): Got this game at -10.5 earlier in the week. I’ll still gladly ride with PSU under 2 TDs. Been saying this all offseason Michael Penix and IU got hella lucky in 2020. They’ve snapped back to reality and just aren’t that good. Penix has been one of the worst QBs all season long. He was a major reason they lost to Cincy. PSU ranks out top 15 against the pass for me while IU ranks 112th passing the ball. Neither team is particularly good at running the ball so it’ll come down to QB play.
