Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music (mostly 90s rap).
1. Believe the hype? Journey Brown
One of the most hyped players this offseason has been Penn State running back, Journey Brown. In my personal ranks, Brown is ranked as my 47th overall devy prospect and the 17th best running back. If we look just at the class of 2021, Brown comes in at 27th overall and the 10th best back in his class. I’ve seen plenty of analysts claim that Brown is a top-five back in this upcoming class. Which is very steep for my liking. Brown heads into his fourth season in Happy Valley, this time as the clear lead back. Coming off a monster end to the 2019 season. Over the final five games, Brown ripped off 78-593-9 (7.6 YPC) and caught 7 balls for 41 yards. Over 66% of his season total yards came in this stretch of games. During the Nittany Lions first 8 games, Brown only mustered up 51-297-3 (5.8 YPC) and caught 8 balls for 93 yards. His late-season surge provided Brown with a 20% dominator rating to give him a breakout age of 20.6 years old.
Brown only managed 53 total yards his first two seasons at Penn State due to being pushed down the depth chart by Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders. When comparing Brown’s numbers against his predecessors at Penn State. His numbers are lower outside of his yards per carry and yards per touch. At nearly the same exact age, Barkley outgained Brown by about 900 total yards and had 39 more receptions during each prospect’s junior season. Sanders, a year older than Brown during their junior campaigns, outgained Brown by 400 total yards. Brown did have the edge over Sanders in yards per and touchdowns. Both Barkley and Sanders had major advantages over Brown in market share of total yards.
Brown’s number matched up a bit more favorably than I expected before doing this exercise. I’m still not ready to fully jump on the Brown bandwagon. I have no issue seeing Brown as a mid to late second-round pick in 2021 rookie drafts. But I do take issue with the crowning of Brown as an elite first-round rookie pick already, and saying he’s in the same ballpark as prospects like Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard, and Najee Harris is absurd. Brown is extremely fast, explosive, and will most likely test extremely well at next year’s NFL Combine, but drafting him in the same range as the previously listed prospects is just begging to lose value.
2. Georgia Tech Schedule
The Yellow Jackets faced a major uphill battle in 2019, transitioning from the triple-option into a modern offense. Judging by the 2020 schedule, this season might not look much prettier on paper. Using Athlon’s 2020 College Football magazine, the projected record of opponents facing Georgia Tech is a whopping 93-39, that’s over a 70% winning percentage. That’s over 6% higher than any other team in the country. Compared to a Clemson who faces teams with a projected record of 67-65 just barely over a 50% winning percentage. Through my formula for the toughest schedule (more explanation later when I release toughest and easiest schedules for 2020), Georgia Tech has the toughest schedule in the nation. The meat of their schedule being Clemson (projected 12-0), UCF (10-2), @North Carolina (9-3), Notre Dame (10-2), Miami-FL (9-3), and @Georgia (10-2). Facing 9 teams with at least 7 projected wins in 2020. Georgia Tech has seen a nice surge in recruiting since the regime change, but the results on the field won’t be indicative of that in 2020 due to the schedule. In 2021, we may finally see the Yellow Jackets gain some momentum on the field.
3. September 12th
Week 2 of the college football season has major national implications. A big-time matchup of Ohio State traveling across the country to take on Oregon. Both teams should be ranked inside the top 10, resulting in some playoff ramifications from this game. North Carolina and Auburn face off in Atlanta, two of America’s brightest young QBs go throw-for-throw in the Mercedes Benz Stadium. Penn State takes a trip down to Blacksburg to meet up with Virginia Tech. Both teams expect to compete in their respective conference title games at the end of the regular season. Getting a big non-conference win could give big confidence for the rest of the year. Texas finds their way to Baton Rouge to try and even up their home-and-home series with LSU. One of the most entertaining games from the 2019 season has plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball for the Tigers after 14 NFL Draft selections in April. Tennessee rides a wave from the end of the 2019 season and an excellent recruiting stretch this offseason into Norman, Oklahoma. A matchup of a couple of big names, but the product on the field most likely won’t be very close. The Sooners should roll past the Vols with relative ease.
4. Crazy Stat: Hunter Johnson
Former five-star and one-time Clemson Tiger, has gotten recent draft buzz from one NFL Draft expert despite having one of the worst QB seasons in recent memory.
I’ve taken an early look at the top SENIOR prospects for the 2021 NFL draft. I only have two quarterbacks among my top 50 (remember, this is seniors only):
Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Hunter Johnson, Northwestern— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) May 4, 2020
Over the last four seasons, 551 QBs have attempted at least 100 passes in a season. Hunter Johnson’s ANY/A rating from 2019 ranked as the 549th best. His whooping 1.25 ANY/A narrowly beat out Arthur Stikowski’s 2018 season and Deuce Wallace’s 2019. Over that same time span, Johnson’s 4.0 yards per attempt ranked 550th. Even his 46% completion percentage ranked bottom 10. Lynn Bowden Jr., a receiver playing a glorified wildcat QB, completed over 47% of his passes for 5.4 yards per attempt. Johnson might be a top 50 QB in the Big Ten but certainly not top 50 senior prospect.
ANY/A – adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown) – sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). – Definition via Pro-Football Reference.
5. I Got 5 On It
As evident by the title (thanks to the creative mind of Kyle Francis), this weekly article will have a touch of hip-hop influence to it. A small way to let my personality come out through my writing. Two of my biggest passions in life are football and hip-hop music. This was the biggest influencer behind why my Twitter avi hasn’t changed in six-plus years. It blends my love for old school hip-hop (originally Wu-Tang driven) and football into one. For Week 1, we’ll start off by sharing the Luniz classic and namesake of this article “I Got 5 On It.” This song doesn’t have much personal meaning to me other than it fits perfectly as the title. In the weeks to come, I’ll have more background and information about the songs that I select each week.
