Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Top QB Performers
@FBGChase has done a lot of great work on twitter with ANY/A with NFL passers. That gave me the idea of using this metric to gage college passers weekly. If you are unaware of this metric “An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterback’s passing game by including five key passing statistics; passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions thrown, times sacked and yards lost to being sacked. This measure rewards passers for scoring with a multiplier on touchdowns and punishes a passer on throwing interceptions. This is all combined into a value on a per pass attempt basis.
It’s calculated as follows:
ANY/A = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown) – sack yards) / (passing attempts + sacks)”
Here are the top 10 performers from week 7 of the CFB season out of 57 qualifying performances.
*Note – The total on the bottom is the tally of all QBs that attempted at least 10 passes this past weekend.
Saturday’s game between UCF and Memphis set all kinds of AAC offensive records. No surprise, both QBs from that matchup are at the top of this list. Not only did Dillon Gabriel and Brady White top this week’s ANY/A rating, Gabriel now has the best performance on the season topping Sam Ehlinger’s game against UTEP. White’s showing is now the 4th best of the season. Trevor Lawrence came in third for the week, if he had more passing attempts he would have topped the two other QBs ahead of him. Coming into last weekend, Georgia had the 2nd best defensive ANY/A in the nation. Mac Jones shredded that secondary, coming in with the 5th best showing on the weekend. His great performance knocked the Dawgs all the way down to 14th from 2nd pass. All four games from Jones in 2020 have been rated in the 86th percentile or higher. One spot ahead of Jones was another tremendous outing by Zach Wilson. He continues to dominate the competition laid out in front of him. Jones and Wilson top the list for ANY/A for the season. They’ve been the two most valuable passers, just ahead of Trevor Lawrence.
Matt Corral’s 6 interception performance earned him the worst performance of the weekend. Corral had been one of the most valuable passers through the early part of the year before facing Arkansas. This was the second-worst QB performance of the entire season. I guess it was time for Corral to regress to the mean. Chase Brice and Bo Nix had the next two worse games after Corral. No surprise, both have been accustomed to topping the bottom of the charts. Brice has had three of the 20 worst games of the year. Bo Nix, Tommy DeVito, and KJ Costello each have two of the 20 worst performances on the season.
Only 5 QBs still have an ANY/A over 10 for the season with at least 50 passing attempts. In order Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Grayson McCall, Trevor Lawrence, and Kyle Trask sit atop the chart. I don’t think it’s much of a surprise that any of these QBs have been the most valuable to date.
2. QB3?
Honestly, I’m not sure any QB is worth taking outside of Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields this year. Only a handful of QBs are successful out of a given draft class. This year will be no different, but somebody has to be the QB3 after the big dogs. Trey Lance, Kyle Trask, Zach Wilson, and yes, Mac Jones are in the running for me. None of these prospects are guys I want to use a first round pick on in rookie drafts or the actual NFL Draft.
Trey Lance: He’s a great runner, but I highly question how advanced of a passer he is right now. He put up great stats as a rFR but any NFL caliber QB would shred FCS level defenses. NDSU is the Alabama or Clemson of the FCS, they have the best talent in the nation surrounding Lance. He had a highly regarded NFL caliber left tackle protecting him. He had all the time in the world and wide open receivers to toss it too. Lance will have a major adjustment to NFL defenses. No way around it, Lance will be a first round draft pick because NFL teams are QB whores. I mean, EJ Manual, Christian Ponder, and Jake Locker were once first-rounders. For fantasy purposes, Lance’s legs will save him for me. I like him as QB3 for rookie drafts, but I value him less for real football value. I think a head coach and GM will eventually lose their jobs for drafting Lance so high.
Kyle Trask: He’s looked lightyears better than he did in 2019, but I’m still not a fan. Kyle Pitts is doing his best to make him look like a Heisman contender. I think Pitts could make Shea Patterson look like an NFL caliber QB. I don’t want Trask in fantasy or real life.
Zach Wilson: Wilson is growing on me, but I still have a hard time jumping fully on board due to the level of defenses he’s faced thus far. His numbers are bonkers, but it’s not like he’s doing it against the likes of Missouri, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Georgia. While not all high-level defenses, they all stack up with loads more NFL caliber athletes than BYU’s schedule.
Mac Jones: Jones numbers have been every bit as impressive as Zach Wilson’s, and once you weigh the schedule of the opponent it really doesn’t end up being that close. Jones throws up the numbers on the Georgia defense that Wilson does against Louisiana Tech. Jones lacks ideal arm strength and mobility, but you can’t deny the performances he’s put on the field against the best competition in the nation. Jones is aided by the best trio of receivers in the nation.
With all that being said, I still don’t really know who’s QB3. It more than likely won’t matter that much in the long haul. I have a hard time seeing success for anybody in this class outside of Lawrence and Fields.
3. B1G Impact Freshman
The B1G kicks off tonight. Here are some potential instant impact freshmen.
AJ Henning, WR, Michigan:
Henning was a 4-star recruit out of Illinois. Henning is a playmaker, with a 4.46 40-yard dash from April of 2019 on his resume. As a senior, Henning tallied 120-808-15 on the ground and caught another 52-815-13. Henning is versatile and brings new level of game-breaking ability to the Wolverines. Outside of Ronnie Bell, Michigan doesn’t have a seasoned vet. The other two receiving spots are wide open for the taking by a talented true freshman. Henning has the skill to contribute on special teams as well.
Parker Washington, WR, Penn State:
Washington was a recruit that I overlooked and didn’t pay a lot of attention too, but that changed on Tuesday when Penn State released a depth chart with Washington sitting as a starter. The 4-star Texas native has the skill set to slide into the KJ Hamler role. I don’t think Washington quite has Hamle’s speed, yet. While Washington might be a tick slower than Hamler, he already possesses a thicker build to his body. With no Journey Brown, to start the season at least, Washington might be the best big-play threat on the offense. Brown’s replacement, Noah Cain isn’t a home run hitter.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State:
Smith-Njigba might not have the potential to throw up big stats due to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson potentially hogging targets in 2020. Njigba is crazy talented and will earn his way into a role for the 2020 season. JSN was a 5-star and a top 15 overall recruit. As a senior, he tallied 103-2162-35 as a pass-catcher. JSN has great hands and catch radius. He’s a star in the making.
4. Jaylen Waddle
No player in the country has had a hotter start to the season than Waddle. His big-play ability has led him to being the most efficient receiver in the nation. Waddle is amongst the top in the nation in almost every receiver efficiency category. For my receiver metric, I like to use a combination of Yards Per Target, Yards Per Team Passing Attempts, and Yards Per Route Ran. In Yards Per Target, Waddle comes in 2nd in the country out of players with a minimum of 15 targets on the season, only behind his teammate John Metchie. He also comes in 2nd in the country in Yards Per Team Passing Attempt, only behind Tylan Wallace of Oklahoma State. He comes in 3rd in the nation in Yards Per Route Ran (minimum 15 targets). The only players ahead of Waddle in that category were S. Mississippi WR Tim Jones and Wake Forest WR Jaquarii Robinson. Once you equally weigh each of these categories, Waddle is miles ahead of the pack. Tylan Wallace checks into second place. The difference from Wallace in second place to 14th place is smaller than the gap between Waddle and Wallace right now. As impressive as Waddle has been, his teammate John Metchie comes in 5th in my efficiency metric as well. It’s no surprise given how efficient the Crimson Tide has been this season.
5. I Got 5 On It
Pittsburgh (+10.5): Both teams are tough against the run. Pitt leads the nation in tackles for loss. I think Notre Dame will win but it’ll be close. The lack of playmakers on the outside make it tough for the Irish to cover the two scores. The O/U has dropped so low (43), the over actually intrigues me a bit here.
Minnesota (+3): The wrong team appears to be favored for me. The guy that couldn’t beat out Shea Patterson or complete over 50% of his passes in high school is the savior? I’ll take the Gophers and the points at home.
South Carolina (+6): I’m banking on no Myles Brennan on Saturday. Neither of the Tigers’ two true freshman QBs are ready for the college spotlight just yet. The ‘Cocks will keep this one close and possibly even squeak out the upset.
Ohio State (-26.5): The Buckeyes are just too good and primed for a playoff run to let the Huskers stick around. This one gets ugly early.
Tulsa (-11): Tulsa has been sneaky good and USF has been horrible. I don’t see much of an issue for the Hurricanes. Tulsa has one of the better defenses in the G5 and USF has struggled a lot on the offensive side of the ball.
