Back again with more midweek football, except this time it’s for something special — the return of the MACtion. 

It’s a bad slate because it’s entirely dependent on whether or not Bert Emanuel Jr. returns for CMU or not, and we’re highly unlikely to get any reporting on that situation before lock. He’s been listed as a co-starter for the last few weeks but didn’t enter the game when Jase Bauer missed a snap due to injury, so he must be injured and we just aren’t receiving any details. He’s a lock if he plays but at this point, we have to expect he won’t. Perhaps it’s not a bad slate to throw in a low-money entry in large GPPs with Emanuel in the Superflex in hopes that you get a low-owned 30-point DK bomp if he plays but there isn’t reporting pregame. 

Odds Board

Northern Illinois (-5) @ Central Michigan | Over/Under 45.5

Buffalo (+15) @ Toledo | Over/Under 50 

Core Plays

QB DeQuan Finn, Toledo -$8,300

RB Peny Boone, Toledo – $6,100

WR Jerjuan Newton, Toledo – $7,000

WR Trayvon Rudolph, NIU – $5,700

I find all these plays pretty obvious so it’ll be a big core for me this week. Might as well stack up Toledo as their offense has been elite, ranking 25th in EPA per play and 14th in success rate. I was surprised to find that Buffalo’s defense has actually been pretty game (35th in EPA per play, 42nd in success rate)  Finn is the clear top QB on the slate, Newton is tied for the slate lead with 44 targets and has 5 more TDs than any other WR, and Boone is averaging four more fantasy points than any other skill position player on the slate. IMO Newton is the one to fade if you want GPP leverage but all three should be in cash lineups. 

Rudolph isn’t a lock but he looks great to me with Kacper Rutkiewicz likely still out (stay tuned for news — nothing bankable at this time). We saw that result in an uptick in volume as Rudolph had 13 targets a week ago — 7 more than he’d had in any other game this season. NIU doesn’t throw a lot but when it does Rudolph should be the top target and we’ve seen his slate-breaking ability in the past. CMU ranks 125th in EPA per pass and 118th in passing explosiveness, so the big plays could be there for Santa’s point guard this week. 

If we get confirmation that he’s available and warming up to play: RB Antario Brown, NIU – $5,700

Lock him up anyway: Gavin Williams, NIU – $5,100

Brown left the game against EMU and did not return. I’ve seen no reporting about his availability, so stay tuned closely — it’s the second reason why the slate is a crapshoot and a mess. He’s the top RB on the slate if he’s good to go against a terrible CMU defense that ranks 115th in EPA per rush, 126th in rushing success rate, 125th in line yards, and 126th in stuff rate. They stink. 

Gavin Williams will be pretty much a lock for me anyway on this slate as the Iowa transfer gets a lot of run anyway for this ground-heavy attack, has three straight games with at least 13.9 DK points, and has an extremely favorable matchup against a Chippewas defense that surrendered over 8 yards per play to an FCS team earlier this year. This defense is godawful and will probably be without its two leading tackles. I suppose I buried the lede here. 

Secondary Plays

QB Rocky Lombardi, NIU – $6,500

I’m stacking NIU and Toledo in my lineups so Rocky is my pick for QB2. He doesn’t throw a lot and isn’t good when he does, but he’s a runner and will face a bottom-five defense by some metrics. Clear stacking option with Rudolph. 

QB Jase Bauer, CMU – $7,500

I’m mostly fading CMU this slate (other than a Bert flier in GPPs, which is a donation unless he makes his return). It’s a tough matchup as NIU’s defense is good, ranking 37th in EPA per play and 2nd in explosiveness. Still, it’s a short slate and Bauer could run for some yardage and some scores here against an NIU team that should be attacked via the ground (68th in EPA per rush, 113th in rushing success rate). 

RB Marion Lukes, CMU – $5,500

I’ve always been a fan of Lukes — I think he’s an explosive player and a good pass catcher. That’s a good skill set for fantasy and CMU’s offense wants to keep the ball on the ground. As mentioned with Bauer, NIU has a good defense but can give up yards on the ground — many of which should go Lukes’ way, making him a good look especially if Brown is ruled out and he can be inserted as the third RB in lineups. 

WR Junior Vandeross III, Toledo – $5,500

You can full stack Toledo or play Vandeross instead of Newton for leverage. He has more receiving yards (400) than any WR on the slate and has just four fewer targets (40) than Newton on the year. That being said, he has more single-digit DK point showings (5) than double-digit ones, and Buffalo is strong against the pass (30th in EPA per pass, 19th in passing explosiveness).

WR Marlyn Johnson, Buffalo – $5,200 

Tied for the team lead in targets (44) while leading in yards (290) and TDs (4). This team stinks and spreads the ball out evenly to its top three wideouts (all have between 42 and 44 targets) so I’ll mostly fade them in a tough matchup (Toledo is 24th in passing success rate defensively). That being said, the Bulls will probably be playing from behind, and Johnson projects as the top runback option. 

WR Jessie Prewitt III, CMU – $5,300

Prewitt actually looks pretty decent despite having a fullback as his QB. He’s third on the slate in receiving yards (379) and tied for second in TDs (4). Similarly to Buffalo, CMU likes to spread the ball out evenly to its top three WRs as they all have between 33 and 36 targets. The Chips usually don’t throw it around much (107th in pass rate) but they stink about could be playing catchup, and Bauer could have all day to throw against an NIU defense ranking 120th in front seven havoc. 

WR Darrell Harding Jr., Buffalo – $4,200

I’m not sure why he’s not playing a full-time role or getting as many targets as the top three options, but the Duke transfer is his team’s highest-graded WR (74.3) and that doesn’t surprise me considering he seemed like the best on the team in the preseason. He averages nearly a full yard more per route run (2.04) than the next-closest Buffalo WR (Johnson with 1.13). 

PrizePicks

Gavin Williams OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards

Antario Brown OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards 

Jase Bauer OVER 28.5 Rushing Yards