We are knocking on college football’s door, so let’s take a look at few Heisman bets that I’ve taken so far. These lines are current as of Monday, August 9th, 2021, and available on Draft Kings. I’ll include some rationale on my primary three, and I’ve included three more fun ones that I took but wouldn’t necessarily recommend anyone taking for anything more than entertainment value. I rarely play the chalk on Heisman bets, so if you are reading this, yes – I agree that Spencer Rattler, DJ U, and Bryce Young are all more likely to win the award this year, but I’m taking what I perceive to be the best values at long odds. That strategy has paid off for me over the past decade-plus.
Matt Corral (+3500)
Playing college fantasy football can be beneficial when it comes to handicapping the Heisman. It’s essential to understand the proven patterns of the Heisman voters, but you also have to be able to nail a top producer at their position. Corral is the CFF consensus QB2 this year. The market expects him to have a massive 2021 season. I concur. His game scripts will likely be far more favorable for a big statistical season than Rattler, DJ U, Young, and JT Daniels. Sure, those guys’ teams will likely comprise the totality of the CFP this year, which ABSOLUTELY means something to voters. Still, Corral plays in the SEC, has a high-profile head coach that has shown the ability to enrapture the national media, and plays on a team that could knock off a giant, en route to winning just enough games to get him a trip to New York. It’s possible that his receivers and his defense don’t help to bolster his chances, but he’s got some excellent value.
Emory Jones (+4000)
Dan Mullen miraculously engineered an offensive scheme that transfigured a career clipboard holder in Kyle Trask to a 2020 Heisman Finalist. What can he do with a QB whose collegiate skillset most resembles former Mullen QB Dak Prescott? Time will tell. Florida has the brand recognition and supporting cast that could help to elevate Jones with a massive 2021 campaign. They surely won’t throw the ball nearly as effectively as they did a year ago, but Jones has a Lamar Jackson type of skillset, and he will undoubtedly be a fan favorite when it comes to versatility at the QB position. I’ve read multiple quotes from current UF offensive players who expect the 2021 Gator offense to resemble Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. The Gators have the perfect mix of patsies (FAU, USF, Tennessee, and Samford) and high-profile opponents (Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida State) that will ensure that the national media will respect both his probable statistical output and his ability to deliver in huge moments. If Florida can win eight or nine regular-season games and knock off Alabama or LSU in the SECCG on the shoulders of an impressive performance by EJ, we are cooking with gas.
Max Johnson (+5000)
In my two above explanations, I touched on some of the ancillary things that Heisman voters look for when it comes time to cast their ballots in December. Johnson meets all of the criteria that I look for. This opened in some spots as high as 200-1, but that was before the market shaped up, and Myles Brennan was in the mix. Fast forward to early August, and Brennan is lost for the year with an injury. His other internal competition is from a true freshman, and I don’t consider that a credible threat to his job. Orgeron oversaw the most impressive college offense I’ve ever witnessed in Joe Burreaux’s 2019 Heisman and CFP winning season. 2020 was a major dud for the Tigahs for many reasons. Things appear to be back on track in ’21, and I’m excited about the potential that this offense possesses under the direction of a Joe Brady-influenced OC and PGC. It won’t hurt that Johnson will be throwing to one of the most talented pass catchers in the country in rising sophomore Kayshon Boutte. MJ won’t throw for nearly as many yards and TDs as Joey did in 2019, but he’s a better runner, and he could flash a diverse statistical profile while playing for a team that has both conference and national title aspirations.
Heroes get remembered, but legends never die:
Malik Willis (+8000)
Willis is the consensus college fantasy QB1 in 2021. A player with his dual-threat skill set that plays in a Hugh Freeze offense will do numbers. Liberty and Willis don’t likely possess the brand power to win the award, but, hey, much of the same could have been said about Lamar Jackson and Louisville in the past, and I hit on him at very comparable odds for my most significant career Heisman cash. Liberty likely needs to run the table and finish the year undefeated for this to have a chance. Is that possible? Absolutely. You won’t find a much easier schedule in college football. Circle the November 6th clash where Freeze returns to Ole Miss. I wouldn’t be upset to see a 56-55 triple-overtime game in that one!
Derek Stingley (+10000)
Stingley has the name cache, program prestige, and the skills to make him a fun bet to root for and gamble on. The last defensive player who won the Heisman was inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame, Michigan’s Charles Woodson. In his 1997 Heisman winning season, his stats didn’t jump off the page. He only picked off seven balls. Northwestern’s Brandon Joseph had six interceptions in 2020 in only five games. In 2019, four guys had sevens or more picks. One thing that both Stingley and Woodson have in common that makes him a worthwhile investment is their multifacetedness. Woodson had 33 returned punts, and he worked at WR, recording 11-231-2 receiving and 3-15-1 rushing. LSU’s WR room is undergoing a massive overhaul, and the staff and some of Stingley’s family have intimated that they plan to use him on offense this year as well.
Drake London (+25000)
Here are some snippets from a summer piece by 247Sports, “Star junior wide receiver Drake London has picked up some big-name comparisons over the last year. USC head coach Clay Helton dropped another comparison for London during a conversation with Fox Sports’ RJ Young. “Now, we really feel, to be honest with you, that Drake’s potential can [allow him to] line up anywhere. You’ll see him on the outside this year. I really think he’s going to be more Mike Evans-ish at the end of the day,” Helton said. “I think he’s going to be Mike Evans. I’ve watched it in the spring where we’ve moved him outside some, and man, he has been dynamic. I mean, he is a nightmare…USC tight ends coach Seth Doege revealed that seeing London on the outside reminds him of one of college football’s all-time great wide receivers: Michael Crabtree. “I tell Graham (Harrell) this all the time. And obviously, Graham and I are the only ones that can can can relate to this because we’ve seen it in person but Drake Landon really reminds me of Michael Crabtree when he’s on the outside. And it kind of correlates because both of them were really, really good basketball players. So they have extremely good body control. But one thing about is they run, like slants and fades are kind of what we do offensively, especially out there. We want to be really good at slants or fades, especially versus man coverage. And it’s really hard to guard Drake outside running the slant or fade right now” If you go back in time, Crabtree had 134-1962-22 receiving in 2007. The Heisman is a QB award, but we just saw DeVonta Smith win the prize with a receiving line of 117-1856-23. Sure, Smith played for Alabama and won a national title, and London won’t do either of those things, but at 250/1, let’s have some fun!
