Another Foundational Players draft and some mildly interesting results compared to the previous one. What is the purpose of conducting this exercise, and why only use 3 classes?
My intention was to formulate a consensus on player values and how we should treat these assets. The purpose of knowing player values in the larger game is to see if there are any edges to exploit within our leagues based on how the overall market feels about certain players. I think we achieved that on a smaller scale. We have a very small sample here, but we can already see how some of these players are perceived.
The reason for using only 3 classes was to compare them amongst each other because they are still young in the NFL and they can be great foundational pieces to building your roster. One class has already shown us what they can do in the league (2021). The rookies (2022) have now settled into their new homes, and the NFL has told us exactly how they feel about them. There is no more guesswork on where these players will go. The prospects (2023) have shown enough promise and displayed enough talent that we can make an educated guess as to how the NFL might also view them.
How is this exercise handy? I envision a few scenarios; if you’re in a Devy league, since you’re here, then you most likely are, then this will help in knowing which players you are too low or too high on and can essentially pivot and get plus assets on top. If you’re new to Devy and in a startup, you can use these to strategize whether to draft a player from one class over the other. Some people are way too high on the Devy side of things while others have rookie fever. This is where knowing the true value of players can pay off.
The Set-Up: 12 Teams, Superflex, Full PPR, Tight End Premium
(Value based drafting, not roster constructing)
The Results:
Some Takeaways:
- No two individuals will value all the players the same, and that’s exactly the purpose of this.
- Trey Lance is the #1 QB amongst all 3 classes.
- Despite their rookie struggles, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are ahead of CJ Stroud and Bryce Young.
- CJ Stroud has overtaken Bryce Young in the eyes of many. This isn’t an observation from just these last 2 drafts, but I’ve seen it in numerous other mocks. Even in our latest rankings, we have Stroud just ahead of Young.
- After Kayshon Boutte, there seem to be some disagreements on who the next best WR is, and those WRs have a wide range of when they come off the board.
(Garrett Wilson #23 → #12) 11 spots
(Treylon Burks #20 → #11) 9 spots
(George Pickens #28 → #44) 16 spots
(Quentin Johnston #37 → #14) 23 spots
(Christian Watson #40 → #57) 17 spots
(Rakim Jarrett #38 → #48) 10 spots - Kadarius Toney seems to not be as highly regarded. He didn’t exactly have a great profile as a prospect coming into the league, but he showed flashes of an electric player in his limited time. Unfortunately, a player as dynamic as him got stuck with a bland play-caller in Jason Garrett.
Toney commanded ~16% target share, about the same as Rashod Bateman.
~28% targets per route run (This shows that even though he didn’t play a lot during his rookie year, he earned a massive share of targets when he did.)
~2.13 yards per route run
~0.71 yards per team pass attempt (not great)
He’s a WR in an offense with no clear definitive WR1. He warrants more attention than he’s getting with an innovative play-caller in Brian Daboll. At his current cost (WR49, round 10 start-up price), he’s easily worth the gamble. - The last 2 rounds of these mocks are somewhat unpredictable. This is “get your guy” territory, or you can even let your league mates shoot their shot and let them decide for you and likely get it wrong.
Mock by The Numbers:
2021: 6 QBs, 4 RBs, 7 WRs, 2 TEs
2022: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 11 WRs, 1 TE
2023: 6 QBs, 7 RBs, 9 WRs, 2 TEs
Total: 13 QBs, 15 RBs, 27 WRs, 5 TEs
Shout out to everyone who participated, and check out the work of all the analysts. @DezDeuce @ff_alias @mastapj @devyjake @NinoBrown_T2T @DevyEusuf @Daboys_22. Another group of some of the smartest folks in Dynasty and Devy.
*If you want to partake in one of these drafts, please reach out to me on Twitter. My DMs are always open to anyone!
