This month’s mock draft is a four round fantasy rookie draft with the following settings: Superflex, PPR, and TE Premium.
ROUND 1
1.01 Greg – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson (QB1)
1.02 Kyle – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State (QB2)
1.03 Jason – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU (WR1)
1.04 Brad – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida (TE1)
1.05 Cody – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU (QB3)
1.06 Clay – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson (RB1)
1.07 Clay – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama (RB2)
1.08 Cody – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama (WR2)
1.09 Brad – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama (WR3)
1.10 Jason – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue (WR4)
1.11 Kyle – Javonte Williams, RB, UNC (RB3)
1.12 Greg – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota (WR5)
Round 1 featured one tight end, three running backs, three quarterbacks, and five wide receivers. If I had to predict how this picture will change following the NFL Draft, I believe we could see a fourth quarterback taken. There could possibly be a fifth, but I’m assuming Lance’s mobility will make him a more attractive target than Jones, even if both are taken in the first round of April’s draft. While this is a dangerous comment to make, this seems like a pretty “safe” reflection of what the top twelve will look like after the draft, albeit in varying order.
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ROUND 2
2.01 Greg – Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU (WR6)
2.02 Kyle – Trey Lance, QB, NDSU (QB4)
2.03 Jason – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss (WR7)
2.04 Brad – Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis (RB4)
2.05 Cody – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC (WR8)
2.06 Clay – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama (QB5)
2.07 Clay – Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State (WR9)
2.08 Cody – Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio St State (RB5)
2.09 Brad – Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami (TE2)
2.10 Jason – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State (TE3)
2.11 Kyle – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida (WR10)
2.12 Greg – Seth Williams, WR, Auburn (WR11)
Round 2 featured two tight ends, two quarterbacks, two running backs, and six wide receivers. That typifies the quality of this class, which lies in the depth at wide receiver. As early as the second round of this rookie RB class, things get uncertain. There is a clear first tier of three, and the NFL Draft will help to shape the ADP of the backs following that trio. Similar to the backs, there appear to be two top tiers of tight ends and then a whole lotta uncertainty. While Toney is a polarizing prospect, if he gets selected in the first round of the draft in April, his ADP will be forced higher. Right behind him, Seth Williams is generally appreciated by both the film and analytics camps, but it’s unclear how he’s currently valued by the NFL. If you are taking any player in the first two rounds of a rookie draft, you must feel confident that every skill guy will go on day one or two, while you must be confident that every QB gets round one capital. To this point, we’ve seen three tight ends, five quarterbacks, five running backs, and eleven receivers drafted. All of those positional thresholds fall within the recent historical trends of numbers of players by the position that will be drafted one day one or two.
ROUND 3
3.01 Greg – Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State (RB6)
3.02 Kyle – Michael Carter, RB, UNC (RB7)
3.03 Jason – Dyami Brown, WR, UNC (WR12)
3.04 Brad – Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State (RB8)
3.05 Cody – Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State (WR13)
3.06 Clay – Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville (WR14)
3.07 Clay – Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville (RB9)
3.08 Cody – Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State (RB10)
3.09 Brad – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma (RB11)
3.10 Jason – Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson (WR15)
3.11 Kyle – Hunter Long, TE, Boston College (TE4)
3.12 Greg – Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest (WR16)
Round 3 had zero quarterbacks, one tight end, six running backs, and five receivers selected. It’s possible that both the format and positional scarcity at quarterback could result in a signal-caller going in round three of a fantasy draft, but there is a clear top five at the position, so I have no qualms with that position being shut out here. History shows that more than four tight ends will be taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, so it’s possible that we see another tight end or two taken in this range. However, beyond the top three, it’s hard to forecast the next players with strong conviction. I personally prefer this group of running backs to round two’s duo, and it’s not inconceivable that we see close to eleven backs taken in the fantasy-relevant range – rounds one to three in the NFL Draft. I have some doubts that we see that many taken this year, as the recent trends show we are more likely to see eight than eleven. This group of backs could result in a winning lotto ticket or a ticket to bust street. Michael Carter seems to be gaining steam with the NFL and fantasy community alike. While he’s smaller than we typically see with bellcows in the NFL, he should be drafted in the second or third round this April and if he lands well, he could ascend over the coming months. Jermar Jefferson is the enigma of this RB class. I’ve seen him go undrafted in seven round NFL mock drafts and I’ve seen him included amongst the top five backs of many fantasy analysts position groups. I fall into the latter camp, but I’m not convinced the NFL will agree. What a fall from grace for Hubbard. Is it justified? Probably not, but he’s another guy that the NFL may not value as highly as we need. Hill and Stevenson are likely to be drafted early on day three, but I’m willing to bet they would land in spots where they could potentially buck them historical probabilities and find a path to fantasy relevance. I’d prefer to bet on Hill, who I believe is another top five-ish RB talent in this class. Brown, Atwell, and Rodgers are all excellent values at WR12-WR15. Terry’s stock tanked this year after his opt-out and not having what could have been a 1,000-yard season. His pro day testing should help the old man, though. It’s unlikely that we see sixteen receivers taken this April in rounds one to three, so there are probably a few flops amongst this group. However, there is a ton of quality at WR in this class, but the warts are more visible amongst this cohort.
ROUND 4
4.01 Greg – Nico Collins, WR, Michigan (WR17)
4.02 Kyle – Demetric Felton, WR, UCLA (WR18)
4.03 Jason – Kyle Trask, QB, Florida (QB6)
4.04 Brad – Jamie Newman, QB, Wake Georgia (QB7)
4.05 Cody – Austin Watkins Jr, WR, UAB, WR, UAB (WR19)
4.06 Clay – Cornell Powell, WR, Clemson (WR20)
4.07 Clay – Khalil Herbert, RB, Va Tech (RB12)
4.08 Cody – Davis Mills, QB, Stanford (QB7)
4.09 Brad – Damonte Coxie, WR, Memphis (WR21)
4.10 Jason – Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M (QB8)
4.11 Kyle – Tommy Tremble, TE, Notre Dame (TE5)
4.12 Greg – Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina (WR22)
Things get dicey in Round 4. One tight end, one running back, four quarterbacks, and six wide receivers comprise this group of twelve. These are not high probability players, but there is a chance that you may have a couple of bullets to fire if you have been asking for late round picks in order to sweeten some pots to make trades work. There are talented guys like Nico Collins who were held back by an arcane offense. Swiss-army-knives like Demetric Felton who finished his collegiate career as a running back. Kyle Trask who lit up college football this season and could play in the NFL for a longtime as a backup and could be an injury away from seeing meaningful snaps. Jamie Newman who is tremendously talented but fell off the map after an opt-out. I could make a case for many of these guys in Round 4, albeit a half hearted one on several. I’ve touched on the uncertainty at tight end, but in general game theory, I would prefer to take the TE5 in this range rather than the QB7, RB12, or WR20. Overall, this draft had five tight ends, nine quarterbacks, twelve running backs, and twenty two receivers drafted.
