We’re back with another Fact or Fiction – a series where one of our team members throws out a statement and someone else gives their opinion on whether the statement is fact or fiction. This series will definitely be college football/recruiting/Devy/CFF related, but we aren’t afraid to pull from Twitter, so be careful tweeting those hot takes. One of these was pulled from Twitter…you’ll be able to tell which one.
1. Anthony Schwartz will have higher draft capital than teammate Seth Williams.
@devywarehouse: FICTION. This take is personally insulting to me and many Devy analysts, but this opinion is expressed by a few. Seth Williams is a very gifted receiver who’s been producing since he was a true freshman. Williams has the ability to make the difficult and acrobatic catches, while Schwartz has been a screen pass-catcher for three years. Schwartz is fast – he has the youth record in the 100-meter dash – but that’s all I see from his game. I’ve never once walked away from an Auburn game and thought that Schwartz was a skilled receiver or gifted football player. While he’s extremely fast in a straight line, I don’t think he’s very gifted laterally, and he isn’t able to make defenders miss in space either. As a speed guy, you would expect Willaims to return punts or kicks, but nope. I think that says a lot about his lack of ability to create and make defenders miss. Williams is one of the top receivers in this receiver class, and this class is very top-heavy. Schwartz is considered the speed demon, but Williams has more than doubled his yards per catch this season. A lot of this can be attributed to usage. If college aDOT was easily available, Schwartz’s aDOT would probably be close to 0. The majority of his targets have come at or behind the line of scrimmage. With Schwartz’s speed, why isn’t he used as a deep threat more? Williams has the ability to win at all three levels of the field, not just one. Schwartz has been one of the most inefficient receivers in 2020. When looking at yards per target and yards per team passing attempt, Schwartz lands towards the bottom of the list. This past weekend, Schwartz recorded 10 catches for 100 yards, 10 YPR isn’t very impressive when you run a reported 4.2 40-yard dash, not to mention that’s sub-8 yards per target. There are so many holes in Schwartz’s game and resume that I don’t even know how this take is fathomable to begin with.
2. The 2022 NFL Draft Class will have the fewest running backs taken in rounds 1-3 since 2016.
@FranchiseKF says: FACT. Here are the numbers by class:
2020: 9
2019: 7
2018: 8
2017: 8
2016: 4
A pal of mine asked me to shoot from the hip a few days ago and name my top five in this class. It generally takes me a little bit to reacclimate to my Devy mindset when I’m asked questions like this during the actual live football season, but this was a super challenging task. I can name five guys, but under no circumstances did I feel confident that all of them were gonna be selected with the requisite draft capital for fantasy relevance. I can feel EXTREMELY confident about one guy, Iowa State’s Breece Hall, and then I can feel VERY confident about Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller. Beyond that, it’s a crapshoot. We’ve got small guys that are talented, big guys that haven’t lived up to their recruiting hype, teammates of guys taking primary work away from more pedigreed recruits, and a mix of all of the above. The 2021 class is weak at RB as well, so I imagine that some borderline guys this year will elect to come out early with the hopes of being drafted on day two, which would make things even more sparse in the ‘22 class. I can’t see a reasonable path that allows for seven guys to go by the end of day two, which makes this group look very suspect in terms of bona fide fantasy assets. There is a lot of football left to be played, but I don’t feel encouraged by this group’s early returns. Now, I know what you are all thinking, ‘Franny Fresh: Did Wake’s Kenny Walker make your Top Five?’
OH, INDEED.
3. Georgia will beat Alabama on Saturday.
@DW_BMack says: FICTION. Kirby Smart is trying to keep Nick Saban’s assistants from falling to 0-22 against their former boss. The last two times Georgia and Alabama have played, UGA controlled the first half, but Bama was able to overcome the deficit and win the game late. I think a fast start is key for Bama this weekend, in part, because Georgia holds a 62-6 scoring edge in the second half of games this season. Granted, Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee aren’t Alabama, but the way the Bulldogs are wearing on teams is evident. Alabama’s offensive pace is about the only thing that rivals Georgia’s defensive intensity this season. In addition to starting fast, Alabama needs to utilize the speed and route running ability they have across the board at WR to strike from deep. Georgia’s defense isn’t perfect, but trying to methodically grind out a drive and score on them in the red zone isn’t easy. On the flip side, it seems like Stetson Bennett IV is the weak link in this game. He seems more comfortable working the intermediate with Kearis Jackson than looking for Pickens on the outside. That’s important because Matt Corral dissected Bama’s defense across the middle last week…even if it was against different personnel groupings than UGA will see…unless Smart copies Kiffin and spreads the field in order to run. This line opened at Alabama -4, and it has moved to Alabama -6 at the time I wrote this. Alabama wins, but Georgia covers.
Saban tested positive for COVID after I wrote this. Even though Steve Sarkisian is acting head coach, I’ll stick with this, for better or worse, in sickness and in health.
