Thanks to the Twitter response I received this week, I’m going to answer any and all questions as we navigate through a football-less quarantine. Be sure to tune in every Friday in April and be sure to share any future questions you may have with @FranchiseKF.
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What’s the skinny on Henry Ruggs? @DynastyMadman
Ruggs is going to be a first-round pick in a few weeks. So, whatever impressions you may have about him as a prospect, it’s important to understand that your opinion of him (particularly if negative) isn’t nearly as important as how the NFL views him. As an Alabama fan, I’ve been able to follow both his recruitment and his entire career in Tuscaloosa. I often saw him as a raw athlete with untapped potential. His production profile would seem to affirm my belief about him. There was a stretch to start his freshman season, where he’d made five catches to start the year. He managed to turn all five of them into 112 yards, and he scored a touchdown on every single reception! His streak was unceremoniously broken against LSU when he ripped off a 47-yard-gain but failed to find paydirt. Ruggs has always been a dynamic athlete. His highlight reel of dunks as a high school player was phenomenal, and his speed and leaping abilities were evident from the first day he stepped into Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Do I think Ruggs should be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft? No. But my opinion isn’t all that important. I recently read a great quote by one of the newly minted Panthers’ head coach, Matt Rhule’s assistants, “In recruiting you miss. You’re going to miss. So, we figure: If you’re going to miss, miss fast.” That’s not a bad strategy. There is no substitute on a football field for pure, unadulterated speed. A player with sub 4.3 speed must be accounted for on every single play. Those types of players keep defensive coordinators up at night, especially if you pair them with a savvy pro or two. Ruggs’ actual impact on his future team may be felt more strongly than his impact on fantasy players ledgers. However, we see it every year; once you are picked in the first round of the NFL Draft as a wide receiver, you have a superhuman staying power that allows you to hang around the league and win the war of attrition against your colleagues who are mere mortals and drafted in the middle rounds. Ruggs is unlike most guys in the league with world-class speed, he’s a brawler as well. He will fight for yards, block his tail off, take a screen to the house, run by a defender on a GO, or fearlessly go across the middle and take on contact. Ruggs carries some unusually high risks for a player that will be selected in the first round, but he will likely be undervalued in most of your league’s rookie drafts, even after he gets paid.
Every year I like to pick a few conference championship futures. Is it worth the gamble this year with the uncertainty of the season or even the chaos of a truncated season? @DW_BMack
I’ve placed some this year, but I’m accustomed to having enough liquidity in my bankroll to tie up funds for the majority of a calendar year. If you have the roll, I say go for it. It wouldn’t surprise me if some sportsbooks start putting caveats with their future sections that indicate a shortened season results in no action. That doesn’t mean that they will immediately refund the interest-free loans that we give them, but I digress! One thing that I’ve noticed during the COVID-19 era is how many books have stepped up their early offerings for both the NFL Draft and for the first CFB markets. Again, they need our money to help them operate, so they are thrilled at the prospect of taking a bunch of money right now and hoping that the bets ultimately get voided, but they can leverage it for the next six or eight months. While we are on the subject, a few longshots that I’ve made myself:
UNC to win ACC – 16/1
Oklahoma State to win Big 12 – 9/1
Penn State to win B1G – 10/1
Wyoming to win MWC – 16/1
Troy to win SBC – 14/1
What players are you considering with your first-round pick in Blue Chips League? @Admlewis
While my league mate, Adam, is trying to get my goat with this question, it brings up a fascinating discussion. For those of you that aren’t in our league, we are entering year four (I think) of a devy league. Every off-season, we have a rookie/devy draft that lasts five rounds. I get a lot of questions this time of year that surrounds when to take an incoming rookie versus taking a potentially higher upside prospect that is still a year, or two, or three years from scoring fantasy points for your NFL team. Without answering Adam’s question and giving away my pick at 1.05, I’ll reference an economic concept that has helped guide me in these decisions.
“The time value of money (TVM) is the concept that money available at the present time is worth more than the identical sum in the future due to its potential earning capacity. This core principle of finance holds that provided money can earn interest; any amount of money is worth more the sooner it is received. TVM is also sometimes referred to as present discounted value.
The time value of money draws from the idea that rational investors prefer to receive money today rather than the same amount of money in the future because of money’s potential to grow in value over a given period of time. For example, money deposited into a savings account earns a certain interest rate and is therefore said to be compounding in value.
Further illustrating the rational investor’s preference, assume you have the option to choose between receiving $10,000 now versus $10,000 in two years. It’s reasonable to assume most people would choose the first option. Despite the equal value at the time of disbursement, receiving the $10,000 today has more value and utility to the beneficiary than receiving it in the future due to the opportunity costs associated with the wait. Such opportunity costs could include the potential gain on interest were that money received today and held in a savings account for two years.”
To simplify, fantasy points scored in 2020 are worth more to me than those scored in 2022. Will I take a rookie this year with my pick? To quote Adam’s former lover from Gainesville, “Ladies and gentlemen, before you hear it on the news, I’m gonna tell you. About an hour ago we had an incident where one of the employees stuck their arm through the cage and a tiger tore her arm off.” – Joe Exotic. (I’m drafting that LSU Tiger, CEH, and I don’t care who knows it!)
Thoughts on the 2022 QB class? @DaltonGuruFF
It’s typically hard for me to make too much of a QB class after their true freshman season. Most times, it’s easier to focus on a guy’s flaws if he saw significant action as a freshman at a big school. That was certainly the case with guys like Bo Nix and Max Duggan in 2019. Spencer Rattler got to sit and learn for a year, so it’s natural to see him in all of his former high school highlight film glory. This is just human nature, for better or worse. Jayden Daniels, Kedon Slovis, and Sam Howell all had early opportunities at Power Five schools and played really well. Howell, in particular, set himself a cut above the rest of his peers with his incredible 3,500+ yard and 38-7 TD-INT season. The tables are best set for Howell, Rattler, Slovis, and Daniels to flourish in 2020. G5 star Dillon Gabriel, is most likely just a fun college QB, but generals that chuck the tater downfield with impunity like him are wildcards and not to be counted out. In a great class, five quarterbacks matter. My guess is that several guys from the group of Brock Purdy, Zach Wilson, Phil Jurkovec, JT Daniels, Alan Bowman, Michael Penix, and Trey Lance all could end up in this class and help to significantly bolster it. Additionally, pocket passers (bleh!) like Ryan Hilinksi, Graham Mertz, and Grant Gunnell add to a potentially robust group. While there are evaluative challenges with a small collegiate sample, I think there is plenty to be excited about with this group’s potential. I feel a lot better about this group since writing this out, so thanks for a sharpening question!
For those rebuilding dynasty teams, how is the 2021 class looking, and how deep will it be at each position? @ern19677
Quarterback is elite at the top with Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. These are two of the safest QBs to come out in years. Beyond them, Jamie Newman would get my money to get first-round investment by the NFL. A guy like Brock Purdy could grow into a coveted player, but I’m not quite ready to include him with guys like the trio mentioned above because he lacks the God-given physical tools of those other guys.
The ’21 running back class was on life support before Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard, Najee Harris, and Kylin Hill all elected to return. Those four make up a formidable core, and there is room for a late bloomer that waited his turn like Zamir White to surprise us, similar to CEH in the 2020 class. Speaking of great pass catchers with feature potential, Keaontay Ingram, Jermar Jefferson, and Max Borghi should be valued by front offices that have progressive offenses. Lesser-known entities like CJ Verdell, SaRodorick Thompson, Journey Brown, and Stevie Scott appeal to me. With Master Teague blowing out his Achilles, it likely torpedoed his value in this class but made room for Trey Sermon to finally put together a season that he’s capable of. My guess is this turns out to be an average group at the top, but the depth could surpass the 2020 groups.
This looks like an excellent receiver class. This will be the third in a row, and that spells trouble for many of the aging pass catchers in the league that want second or third contracts. I look at a deep, quality core of Ja’Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, Seth Williams, Tamorrion Terry, Jaylen Waddle, Rashod Bateman, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justyn Ross, Tylan Wallace, Devonta Smith, Chris Olave, Sage Surratt, Terrace Marshall, and Dyami Brown and I feel excited. In a good class, that many guys could get the type of draft capital needed to be historically relevant in the league. I could go on with other guys that could find themselves in this group, but I’ll refrain from talking myself out of a job! Whoops, I may have already done that.
The tight end class should more closely resemble the 2019 class than 2020. That’s a good thing for fantasy purposes, by the way! We knew the 2020 class was gonna be weak, and all signs have pointed to 2021 picking up their slack. I don’t care to spend too much time on this position, but guys like Kyle Pitts, Brevin Jordan, Pat Frieirmuth, Charlie Kolar, Jake Ferguson, and Matt Bushman all have exciting potential. I probably forgot somebody, but I am rolling stream of consciousness in this mailbag.
Overall, good class at every position either in terms of top talent or lots of quality depth, often both.
Have a SF Devy Draft next week, my second so still a greenhorn. What should I purchase as far as Rankings, on a tighter than normal budget, but want what is necessary? Thanks, Al @RidgeRunner171
Hey, Al. How about I buy you a copy of our 2020 guide? DM me your email, and I’ll send it over today. God bless!
How do you see the first 6 picks of the draft going? @GantronSports
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
- Chase Young, Washington
- Jeff Okudah, Detroit
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
- Mekhi Becton, New York
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
- Chase Young, Washington
- Tua Tagovailoa, Los Angeles
- Isaiah Simmons, New York
- Justin Herbert, Miami
- Jeff Okudah, Detroit
Those would be my best guesses at this point. According to Draft Kings Sportsbook, the three most probable outcomes of the top three are:
-Burrow, Young, Tua
-Burrow, Young, Okudah
-Burrow, Tua, Young
In my opinion, the Giants are the best team to trade out of their spot, especially if they are targeting an offensive tackle. It seems there is a consensus that there are four OTs that are considered in the same tier, the cream of the crop. They can easily trade back from four once and maybe even twice and still land one of those four. The problem with this scenario is that their GM Dave Gettelman is a dunce, and his track record shows that he won’t trade back, even when the table is set for him, as it is this year. The other teams that could trade back would be the Lions, and we have less data on what their tendencies or preferences may be, but there are plenty of quality corners that will be available at the end of the first round. Assuming they want a corner, they could work a trade with either Miami, Los Angeles, or a wildcard like New England who may come up for a QB. Corners generally don’t go in the top three picks of the draft, so they could conceivably move back to five or six and still get their guy.
Tee Higgins over 30.5 lock of the century?! @ShootersShoot34
I sure hope so! I’m pretty invested in him not being a first-round pick. I’ve known that he wasn’t a good athlete for years, so I am generally inclined to fade receivers that are projected to be early picks yet won’t test well. From an athletic testing standpoint, Higgins and Kelvin Harmon are nearly identical with their 40-times, speed scores, and burst scores. It seems like a lifetime ago that Harmon was projected by many to be a day two pick in the NFL Draft, and some felt he could even sneak into the first (Couldn’t be me!), but he fell all the way to the sixth round. I’m not saying that is Higgins’ trajectory, but I think it’s highly unlikely that he’s drafted in the first round. I feel comfortable saying that it would be a poor business decision for a club to take him in the first, but that certainly doesn’t stop teams from doing that year-after-year! I’m not buying that Clemson’s corner AJ Terrell goes in the first either, so it may just be Simmons from Clemson this year.
Top 5 devy IDP? @abghezzi
I don’t play IDP formats, so take this with a truck full of salt. Every year, the day after the NFL Draft, I try to predict which players will be taken in round one of next year’s draft. Here are some guys that I currently have written down. I don’t know scoring and what you are looking for, but I assume that draft capital matters in that format as well:
Paris Ford, Pittsburgh, DB
Patrick Surtain, Alabama, DB
Dick LeCounte, Georgia, DB
Caden Sterns, Texas, DB
Shaun Wade, Ohio State, DB
Paulson Adebo, Stanford, DB
Micah Parsons, Penn State, LB
Dylan Moses, Alabama, LB
Joseph Ossai, Texas, LB
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame, LB
Marvin Wilson, FSU, DL
Tyler Shelvin, LSU, DL
Boogie Basham, Wake Forest, DL
Quincy Roche, Miami, DL
Gregory Rousseau, Miami, DL
What new TV series is up in your queue that you’re looking forward to starting? Best restaurant you’ve tried in ATL? @CFFNate
I just started the Leftovers on HBO last night. That’s not a new series, but it’s new to me. HBO has incredible programming. I generally try to fill any gaps in shows I’m watching with the old series that they’ve done, and I’m rarely disappointed. I often re-watch my favorite series once or twice per year. I just finished Season 3 of Ozark, and it didn’t disappoint. It was an exciting season that set the table for Season 4. Tiger King was outstanding. I read the book Defending Jacob a few years ago, and I enjoyed it. On April 24, Apple TV is releasing a series based on the book. I’m optimistic about that but I don’t have much experience with Apple TV yet. Showtime’s Billions is a top-five currently airing series for me right now, and a new season begins on May 3
If I’m going to spend a lot of money on a meal, it’s going to be on a steak. There is a steakhouse up near where I grew up in the burbs called Little Alley. That’s my go-to-spot on special occasions. Atlanta isn’t known for a specific type of food, but I think we have some delicious BBQ and southern/soul restaurants. We like to try those when we go out, and there are tons of good ones all across the Metro-area.
