It’s Friday and that means it’s time for another mailbag. Thanks again for your questions. We’ve done our best to answer them below.
How should I attack a Devy depleted draft? Draft a CEH type player this year to fill a need or draft a Bateman for my taxi? @AgentDMiller
@FranchiseKF – This is a great question and one that many owners are faced with. My approach would be to take CEH. My reasons are threefold:
- CEH is a better prospect than Bateman.
- CEH, or the rookie, will have at least one, with a possibility of three seasons of NFL production in his pocket before the ineligible guy even steps foot into the league.
- This time last year, Bateman’s running mate, Tyler Johnson, was cemented as a 2020 First-Round-Rookie-Pick. Even the players that we think are going to be very valuable in the NFL can take a swan dive with little-or-no notice. There is no reason to speculate by taking a hopeful 2021 1st for a guaranteed 2020 1st.
@DW_Clayton – Myself and Kyle ^ just got into an unnecessarily long discussion on twitter about Bateman as a prospect where I was backing Bateman, and the answer is still, quite easily, a player like CEH or Justin Jefferson. If there’s a WR or RB that was taken in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft available for you, you take that player. If there are only later round NFL Draft picks available, then I would lean Bateman. The exception to that might be a mid- to late-round running back that you love in the mold of an Aaron Jones. I typically like to soak up the good leftover rookie value first in drafts like these, and then I start plucking Devy talent with the later round picks.
How many prospects get profiled that don’t make the final cut? Can only imagine the lists of players you keep tabs on. @JamesCheeeyne
@DevyWarehouse – To peel back the curtain a bit. We have seven evaluators that work on the Devy Watch Guide. We each have approximately 20 teams assigned to each writer to watch and write up, broken down by conference alignments. Along with that, we each had approximately 40 incoming freshmen to evaluate for the guide this year. So, we laid eyes on just under 300 incoming freshmen. Once we were all finished, we had 265 players make the final cut, while we had another 80 prospects that were borderline and just missed the cut.
@DW_BMack – The answer above is a great overview of our process. I had the SEC East, Sun Belt, and 39 assigned freshmen. I like to make a watch list based on what I see during the season. Of that watch list, I took detailed notes on 40 returning players. Only 12 of those 40 made the final cut. Only 7 of the 39 freshmen I watched made the cut. Sometimes, it can be deflating to do all that work and a player not make it, but at least I have a background on a player if they become a Volume 2 addition.
When evaluating players, how much do you guys factor the “school effect”? Say, a WR good on tape or stats from a small school may not be highly valued by NFL so most likely the draft stock will be affected. Say J.Ross ranks lower than Bateman but should be drafted higher by NFL. @wei_fu0619
@DW_Clayton – From my perspective, we definitely take the caliber of a prospect’s school into effect. However, it’s quite a bit different from how you laid it out. With your Bateman and Ross example, the school factor isn’t taken into consideration much, if at all, as both are from Power 5 programs. While a player like Ross may have more national exposure than Bateman, and the NFL may have some subconscious bias towards players from the very top programs; we are likely to keep the player that we think more highly of ranked higher so long as we think he’s likely to be drafted relatively early.
Where the school factor mostly comes into effect for us is with the really small school prospects. If there’s a player from a small school like San Jose State who looks good and has a plus statistical profile, that player must have really, really impressive tape and a great dominator rating for us to consider ranking him. Even then, it’s unlikely he would be ranked highly for us, as the NFL does seem to discount many skill position players outside of Power 5 conferences during the NFL draft.
Which freshman do yall see making the biggest impact in their first year? @shane_whited
@FranchiseKF – My best guesses are DeaMonte Trayanum, the running back for Arizona State, Jermaine Burton, the wide receiver for Georgia, Arik Gilbert, the tight end for LSU, and Jayden de Laura, the quarterback for Washington State.
@DevyWarehouse – Purdue had one of the worst rushing attacks in the country last year. Signing Tirek Murphy could give them a bit of an uptick. He should have a great opportunity to win the starting gig early in the season. Notre Dame will look to get incoming RB Chris Tyree involved in its rushing, passing, and return game this fall. Tyree has won the fastest man at the Nike Opening in back-to-back years.
@DW_Clayton – I think UofSC running back MarShawn Lloyd can make a big year-one splash. He’s a player that I profiled for DW20, and I loved what I saw. He enrolled early, has an SEC-ready body, and the Gamecocks have a wide-open depth chart at RB with the departures of Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster. The Cocks also have the ninth-most vacated rushing yards in the nation heading into 2020. Lloyd may not steal the show in year one, but he’s likely to earn a role and rise in value. There’s also a scenario where he becomes the team’s bellcow by year-end and continues to dominate that backfield for the rest of his career.
@DW_BMack – Marshawn Lloyd is the first player that comes to mind for me for all of the reasons Clayton listed above. To list a few more names that haven’t already been mentioned – Jahmyr Gibbs, Rakim Jarrett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are players I think have the opportunity to make an early impact.
