“On a mission your worst enemy is idle time”.
That’s one of my favorite quotes from one of my favorite rappers, the late great Nipsey Hussle. Now I’m fairly certain he wasn’t referring to fantasy football when he said that. Nonetheless, we can still apply it to our mission of winning in fantasy football. We’re talking fantasy, so what does that quote mean for us? Don’t be stagnant and content with your roster. Oftentimes fantasy football, more specifically dynasty football is one of the most engaging formats of fantasy, and people stay active all throughout the year looking forward to the next. However, when it comes to devy, I see a lot of managers sit idly on their devy assets. It’s not always bad to hold on to your players if you’ve got someone like Bijan Robinson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba rostered but how confident are you about your other devy guys. No matter who you are or how good you think your scouting skills are, at some point you’ll be wrong. Too often I see managers left holding the bag on a prospect that was once highly touted and showed immense potential but then simply becomes another wasted pick. We’re relentless in our pursuit of constantly trying to better our teams. When it comes to devy, it’s a little confusing as to why there’s often inaction in the movement of devy players. Most people simply draft and forget. I just want to preface that this is strongly anecdotal and not supported by data. This should give you an idea of the philosophy I employ with my devy assets and team building in general.
We’re often afraid of letting go. Letting go means you were wrong and people don’t want to be wrong and so they hold. NFL teams do it all the time and we chastise them for it, but we’re just as susceptible to the same mistakes. Another reason is probably having incomplete information. So much of our projections rely heavily on college production. It’s tough to evaluate when you have little to none at all. While some players are a year away, others haven’t even stepped onto the college field yet. There seems to be this void when it comes to knowing when to let go of players and when to hold on. Most people simply hold because it’s easy to do and requires no effort at all. In my experience, it’s best to move on sooner rather than later. Maximize your gains while minimizing risk. Let’s run through some examples of highs and lows.
Market Over Corrections
DJ Uiagalelei
In the 2020 class, he was ranked as the #1 pro-style QB and 24/7Sports Composite 5 Star. Starting his collegiate career as an understudy to the eventual 2021 #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence. DJU possessed a big, physical frame at 6’4″ 246lbs. He has the size, athleticism, and arm talent – all the things you want at the position. The heir apparent once Lawrence leaves. In 2021, he had a rocky start to being the starter, to say the least. Although I still believe he has the talent to overcome some of his shortcomings from a year ago, 2021 created a lot of doubt in people’s minds. These are your 2 buy/sell opportunities and he’s still another year away from being eligible to play in the league. If you were to capitalize on DJU’s absurdly high price then you’d be pretty happy right now knowing the complete faceplant of a year 2021 was for him. I say absurdly high because he was going 1.01 in the majority of devy startups without having played more than 2 games as the starter. People were convinced he would be on par with the likes of Deshaun Watson and Lawrence. After the 2021 season, people have completely soured on him and have done a complete 180°. This is when I’m trying to get DJ Uiagalelei for as cheap as I can because I don’t believe his talent disappeared and he forgot how to play football. Some players require time to get acclimated. He showed glimmers of that talent last year even if the overall season was not so pretty. I would never assume a player is a bust off of a one-year sample but it certainly makes me feel less confident. Not only is he not going in the 1st round of devy startups, but the freshman Cade Klubnik is also being drafted ahead of him. In some instances, DJU is going undrafted.
Spencer Rattler
Almost the same situation as DJU. Rattler did however get the Big 12 Championship MVP, became a 2× Big 12 Champion, and was named First-team All-Big 12 in 2020. 2021 wasn’t so kind to him. With Rattler struggling, an immediate call for his replacement in Caleb Williams resulted in Rattler getting benched for the freshman QB. Maybe Rattler was always overrated and expecting him to replicate the success of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray clouded everyone’s judgment of him.
Mirages
Max Borghi
Once a devy darling now he’s barely even being talked about. Did you know he’s in the 2022 NFL Draft? He was pegged to be the next CMC.
Demond Demas
Freaky athletic WR with all the tools to be considered a true number one weapon. We were sold on his potential and 2 years in we still don’t know if it’ll ever come to fruition. The problem was he hadn’t played football his senior year of high school and was a non-factor his freshman year at TAMU. Two full years of not playing meaningful football but we were still drafting him because of the measurables we saw and the raw freaky athleticism. His outlook as of now is bleak, to say the least. This kid is his own worst enemy.
DeaMonte Trayanum
Trayanum rushed for a combined 692 yards and 10 touchdowns in his two seasons with the Sun Devils. Now he’s transferred to Ohio State and he’ll be playing not as an RB but as a linebacker for them.
Lovasea Carroll
Recruited as an RB. Then asked to play defense. Now transferred to South Carolina where he might play RB *shrugs*
We can run through countless examples of players you could’ve capitalized on their highs if you were proactive in your approach or had the foresight of moving on from risky assets. Hope you weren’t left holding the bag on some of these guys. Then we have players that didn’t really emerge until their eligibility year and immediately capitalized on their productive season.
Underrated
Trey Lance
Lance was barely a blip on the devy radars. Barely recruited by any Power 5 teams. The Minnesota native dreamed of playing for his hometown but ultimately the coaching staff at Minnesota wanted him to play safety or wide receiver. He soon shot up devy boards after his stellar play in 2019. The market reacted by drafting him in the 1st round of devy startups, a spot he wasn’t seen in just a year prior.
Javonte Williams
Another player that was barely getting drafted in devy circles. He was faded despite having a productive season in 2019 while sharing a backfield with Michael Carter, putting up 933 rushing yards with 5 TDs. You likely weren’t drafting him unless you were in the deepest of devy drafts.
There are always market inefficiencies. People fall in love with players and plant flags. Sometimes those flags are planted on sinking ships. Know when to hop off. I implore you to
exploit these periods of doldrums. This is my long-winded way of saying be more active. I’ll elaborate on how to go about trading for/away in another article. I’ll leave you with another quote that I live by and it pertains to adaptability.
“Be Water My Friend” – Bruce Lee
tl;dr version: Don’t idly sit on your devy assets. Constantly assess your roster and actively move your devy players. Capitalize when their value is high when it shouldn’t be, for proven assets that have actually shown you they can produce and aren’t a mirage.
