Update 9/30 @ 10:49 am ET
I played the following this morning. Yardage props also available at other shops:
- Rodney Hammond OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards
- Marcus Major UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards
- Elijah Badger OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards
- Keandre Lambert-Smith OVER 13.5 Fantasy Points
- Samuel Brown OVER 13.5 Fantasy Points
- Austin Armstrong OVER 13.5 Fantasy Points
- KJ Jefferson OVER 22.5 Fantasy Points
Here are my favorite player prop bets for this weekend. I decided to just include essentially my whole card and included the sides and totals that I played at the bottom.
I’ll look to get back on track after a poor showing last week. I can blame it on it being a funky week, but the picks simply didn’t come through in Week 4. The offerings continue to trickle in slowly throughout the week as PrizePicks in particular is looking to avoid players working around limits by playing the same picks on multiple days, so there should be more bettable props coming in later. Smaller slate of plays again for me this week to start, but I’ll likely have more later in the week.
There aren’t enough fantasy points offerings to throw together a very meaningful entry as of Friday morning, at least in my opinion. That being said, a few Friday offerings stand out:
- Kevin Concepcion OVER 12.5 Fantasy Points (Friday)
- Jamari Thrash OVER 18 Fantasy Points (Friday)
- Damien Martinez OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards (Friday)
Saturday Props
Marshawn Lloyd OVER 88.5 Rushing Yards (DK)
RB, USC
I’ve been a proponent of the “Lloyd is clearly the best running back on USC’s roster” train since the offseason and therefore was pleased when he handled 14 carries last week compared to just 3 for Austin Jones. He took those carries for 154 rushing yards (11 yards per carry) because of course he did — he’s a talented back in a high-powered offense. He’s now up to 8.9 yards per carry on the year and should receive a higher amount of carries per week now that he’s proven himself to be the alpha in the room. Lloyd should run wild against a putrid Colorado defense that ranks 114th in EPA per rush, 100th in rushing success rate, and 106th in rushing explosiveness. Here’s how this defense performed in its two toughest tests to date:
- TCU: 37 rush attempts for 262 yards (7.1 yards per carry) and 4 TDs
- Oregon: 38 rush attempts for 240 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and 3 TDs
Nicholas Singleton OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards (FD)
RB, Penn State
Keandre Lambert-Smith OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards
WR, Penn State
I like both of these Penn State players this weekend as I’d be surprised if the offense doesn’t break out a little bit against a bad Northwestern defense that made Rutgers look like an NFL team earlier this season and was just gashed for nearly 200 rushing yards by a true freshman. (Yes, that’s a true freshman that I told everyone to prioritize in dynasty drafts this offseason, but still, that’s a lot of yards). Singleton’s yards per rush is down to 3.8 from 6.8 last year but he should feast here against a defense that has allowed 512 rushing yards and 7 TDs in its last two games. KLS is a bit hit-and-miss, but I’ll think he’ll hit more often than not considering he’s the clear alpha in the receiving game as no secondary options have emerged as reliable options. KLS has 27 targets on the year, which is nearly double the next-closest player (TE Tyler Warren has 15, while fellow tight end Theo Johnson is third with 13). The next-closest WR threat is Malik McClain, who has a whopping 12 targets through four games. This is a good matchup against a Wildcats defense that ranks 120th in EPA per pass and 118th in passing success rate.
Behren Morton OVER 239.5 Passing Yards (DK)
QB, Texas Tech
I’ll keep this one pretty short because this play is just about the line stinking. TTU averaged over 300 passing yards per game last year and they run at the fastest tempo in the nation. They’re priced way down after one bad game on the road in terrible weather in which their starting quarterback broke his leg early in the game. It’s an overreaction and an easy buy back IMO in a soft matchup against a bad Houston team that has a bad defense.
Isaiah Williams OVER 5.5 Receptions (PP)
WR, Illinois
Williams is a target hog, ranking 11th nationally among players with four games played with 39 targets. He faces a bad Purdue defense allowing 404 total yards per game and 5.6 yards per play. The Boilermakers lost a few impact players in the secondary from last year and the falloff has been dramatic as they rank 96th in EPA per pass and 87th in passing success rate. Williams should be a big part of the game plan again this week, especially if the rushing attack remains stuck in the mud and they fall behind the chains. Purdue ranks 115th in EPA per play on passing downs and 121st in success rate on passing downs, which all paints a nice rosy picture for a productive day at the office for Williams.
TD Scorers
- UTEP RB Torrance Burgess Jr. +130 (Friday)
- Colorado WR Jaavon Antonio +310
Sides and Totals
These aren’t props, of course, but I figured I’d start including any sides and total that I’m on and recommend for the week.
- Oregon State -3.5 vs. Utah, Under 44.5 (Friday)
- South Alabama +3 @ James Madison
- Arkansas +6.5 vs. Texas A&M
- Virginia +3.5 @ Boston College
- Old Dominion/Marshall Under 47.5
- Kansas/Texas Over 61
- Michigan -17 @ Nebraska
- Georgia Southern -6 vs. Coastal Carolina
- Alabama -14.5 @ Mississippi State
