Here are my favorite college football player props for this week. PrizePicks still has a crappy list of offerings for Fantasy Points, so hopefully more are added and I’m able to throw something together to share with you all. Stay tuned — I’ll update you if that comes to fruition. They seem to have made a concerted effort to only list shitty plays in that section, for the most part, this year. Sometimes they add some plays late in the week once limits can no longer be avoided by placing entries across multiple days. Sigh. We adjust as we must. For now, I’m focusing mostly on props since that’s what’s available.
Update 9/22 @ 11:41 PM
- Bo Nix OVER 28.5 Fantasy Points
- Marshawn Lloyd OVER 11.5 Fantasy Points (since moved to 12.5)
- Shedeur Sanders OVER 22.5 Fantasy Points
- Taulia Tagovailoa OVER 19.5 Fantasy Points
- J. Michael Sturdivant OVER 11.5 Fantasy Points
- Joe Milton OVER 22.5 Fantasy Points
- Jalon Daniels OVER 20.5 Fantasy Points
- Riley Leonard OVER 23 Fantasy Points
- Devin Leary OVER 16.5 Fantasy Points
- Isaac Teslaa to score a touchdown +295 at DK
Fantasy Points
Jalil Farooq OVER 9 Fantasy Points
WR, Oklahoma
You can play him at 42.5 receiving yards on FanDuel if you don’t have a PP (account). Oklahoma’s wide receivers have been challenging to predict this season. Farooq was expected to be the WR1 this season but has seen just 10 targets through three games. That’s certainly not encouraging, but I’ll point out that the Sooners have mostly been involved in blowouts and he hasn’t been needed. He exploded for 6-126-1 last week to wake up after a slow start and now has a touchdown reception in back-to-back games. He leads the receiving room in snaps, so the opportunity should continue to be there. Oklahoma has a high-powered offense and should be able to exploit a Cincinnati secondary that has seen a ton of attrition over the last few years and ranks 95th in EPA per pass and 132nd in passing explosiveness so far this season.
Jalen Milroe OVER 20.5 Fantasy Points
QB, Alabama
I get that it’s difficult to play any overs with this Alabama offense right now. At the same time, that means it’s an opportunity to buy low as expectations are at their nadir. Milroe’s game is suited well for fantasy due to his tremendous rushing ability. He managed 36.6 FPs and 22.6 FPs in his two starts this season and while Ole Miss’ defense is better this year, it’s hardly a unit to be feared.
Props
(Friday) Ashton Jeanty OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards
RB, Boise State
Found at FanDuel for 67 and PrizePicks for 67. I’ve mentioned this a lot, so you’ve probably heard it if you follow my stuff, but San Diego State is regressing defensively. The Aztecs have lost a ton up front from a year ago and have been gashed on the ground, ranking 118th in EPA per rush and 133rd in success rate. Those are appalling numbers for any school, let alone for one that has a reputation as a stout defensive team year after year. The availability of George Holani is one to follow as this prop because much more unsure if he suits up.
(Friday) Eric McAlister OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (PP)
WR, Boise State
It’s 45.5 at FanDuel. He’s been a volume hog this season, bursting out for 30 targets for 15-238-2 through three games. I’ve been very high on him since recruiting and this team doesn’t have many receiving options, so I’m buying into his talent and opportunity.
Jahmal Banks OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (DK)
WR, Wake Forest
It’s 62.5 on PP. It seems like I’m on Banks every week and that’ll likely be the case until (if) the books adjust their numbers. He’s the WR1 for Wake, which is a year-in and year-out moneymaker. Georgia Tech ranks bottom four in both EPA per pass and passing success rate — this is a bad secondary.
Audric Estime OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards (DK)
RB, Notre Dame
Tricky one at first since it’s a difficult matchup against an Ohio State defense that hasn’t allowed any of its opponents to top 100 rushing yards yet this year. I’m buying the massive dip on Estime’s number, however, as he’s averaged 123.2 rushing yards per game across his last five. He’s a workhorse and a monster and runs behind one of the best OLs in the country, so I’d imagine he still has a decent day at the office. The hope is that Notre Dame doesn’t turn into a pumpkin like it usually does playing elite teams.
Jo’Quavious Marks OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards
RB, Mississippi State
The Bulldogs’ entire offense has revolved around Marks this season and they haven’t been particularly shy about that being the case. Shameless. He gets a fine matchup against a South Carolina team that is weak up front and is averaging 108.3 rushing yards per game, so I’ll keep buying his deflated numbers until given reason to think otherwise.
Tyler Shough OVER 276.5 Passing Yards
QB, Texas Tech
Another guy who I’ll be on a lot this season, it seems like. He only played on half last week in a blowout and therefore has a deflated statline that is probably being baked into the algorithm. Tech throws the ball 40+ times per game, runs a million plays, and gets a fantastic matchup with a porous WVU secondary ranking 131st in passing explosiveness. You can get +145 on him to throw Over 2.5 touchdowns at DraftKings.
J. Michael Sturdivant OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
WR, UCLA
Dominant WR. An underrated matchup against a Utah team whose defensive weakness is at corner. Suppressed stat lines lately due to blowouts. Potential first-round NFL Draft pick and clear WR1 for a good offense lined like he’s WR2/3 for a no-name team.
Conner Weigman OVER 257.5 Passing Yards
QB, Texas A&M
Auburn has a good secondary so I do get this number, but I won’t to be bullish on Weigman and this number is fine enough to play in my opinion. He has good receivers and got an OC upgrade, and he seems due for a big season after racking up over 300 passing yards per game to start the year.
TD Scorers
- Nick Nash +210 | WR SJSU
- Marshawn Lloyd +110 | RB USC
- Mark Redman +320 | TE SDSU
- Mitch Griffis Over 2.5 TDs +145 | QB Wake Forest
- Tyler Shough Over 2.5 TDs +145 | QB Texas Tech
- Brevyn Spann-Ford +450 | TE Minnesota
