Here are my preferred plays for this week’s lovely main slate over on DraftKings.
You’ll notice a little bit of a different format for the article this week — I’m out of town at a bachelor party and my process is a bit different, so my product will be as well. I decided to focus on my core plays for the most part as that’s what I feel strongly about in Week 3.
Core Plays
QB Riley Leonard, Duke – $6,700
RB Trey Benson, FSU – $6,600
RB Damien Martinez, Oregon State – $6,400
WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville – $5,500
This is where I’ll start most of my lineups this week. There are some fantastic values at the skill positions this week while the QBs are simply OK, so my strategy mostly involves fitting as stacked of an RB/WR grouping as possible and figuring the QBs out based on what pricing I have left.
There are some pay-up options at QB that are viable, but I’m not in love with any of them and there are some good cheap players. The clear mispricing is on Riley Leonard, who is a star CFF player who provided a decent floor-ceiling combination to make him a great play in all formats. He faces a terrible Northwestern team that made Gavin Wimsatt look like an NFL player when I watched them in extended action earlier this season, so I’m not sure what there is not to love about the Duke signal caller this week as my clear top quarterback.
The RB position is stacked, and I’ll expand on some other options below as there are 7-8 I’d consider, which is by far the most of any position. I’ll be playing 3 RBs in most lineups — it’s that kind of week. Benson is my favorite value on the board as a Norvell RB for one of the best teams in the country and has a juicy matchup against a BC that just surrendered 7.4 yards per play to an FCS school. If Holy Cross can run for 268 yards and 4 TDs on 6.9 yards per pop, I shudder to think what Benson and company will do — even if his work is limited. My second favorite RB is Martinez, who seems like a lock for 100+ rushing yards every week and should roll over an SDSU defense that has sneakily regressed lately. People don’t pay much attention to West Coast ball, especially P5 West Coast ball, so they might have missed that the Aztecs no longer look like an elite defense. There are other good options so Martinez barely made the cut as a core play, but he is a fantastic value.
It’s hilarious because Jeff Brohm’s players are always absurdly mispriced on DraftKings. I’m not sure if somehow pissed on their algorithm or something, but they haven’t budged his players’ (or his former plays, look at Purdue!) prices for 3+ years. Remember when Charlie Jones was min-priced going into last year? Fun times. Anyway, Thrash will be close to 100% owned but he has a good floor and ceiling so it’s deserved. Free square.
Secondary Plays
QB Nate Johnson, Utah – $4,500
Johnson was elevated to QB2 on the depth chart behind Cam Rising. No one knows when or if Rising will return but even if he does see the field in Week 3, it’s unlikely he plays more than a few snaps at the Utes are facing an FCS school. Johnson is one of the fastest QBs in the country and has shown impressive physicality, so his rushing upside is enormous both in the present and future. This guy ran a 10.52 100-meter, likely starts, plays an FCS school that lost it’s head coach (now BYU’s DC, took his two best defenders with him, leading immediate improvement), is in a scheme that likes to run its QBs, has injured skill players around him, and is priced in the basement. It’s a fairly easy call to play Johnson, but it’s possible he continues splitting time or isn’t utilized much and is outscored by a cheap WR. Still, he’s a fantastic value and is close to a core play. I don’t see why the staff would need to play Barnes much in this matchup — he stinks, and Johnson is the future and the present.
QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama – $9,100
If paying up, I prefer Milroe. It could be crazy to play him now after the Texas loss, or it could be the perfect time — they need to get the offense going and instill some confidence in a smash spot against the shitstain that is this USF defense. His rushing upside is immense and he could eclipse 40+ points . . . if the staff doesn’t choose to get an early look at the other QBs on the roster. There’s volatility, but this is too good of a matchup for a player who is way better in fantasy than in real life. Kyle McCord and Jordan Travis are both fine options above $9K, but McCord offers little rushing upside and I’m opting for Benson over Travis personally.
QB Jack Plummer, Louisville – $6,600
The other cheapish option at QB I’d consider is Plummer, simply because DraftKings is dumb and their pricing is dumb.
QB Bert Emanuel Jr., CMU – $6,100
I said earlier this year that Bert is worth mentioning any time he’s on the slate. So, here you are: Bert!
(I’m probably not playing Bert this week, but don’t let word get out. I still love you, Bert, and am your number one fan. You’re going to average 50 fantasy points per game during MAC play.)
RB Audric Estime, Notre Dame – $7,800
There are so many good RB options, and Estime is certainly one of them. His price is difficult to stomach but is more than affordable if you play something like Leonard/Johnson at QB. He’s affordable even if you only play one of those guys. I don’t think we really know what his workload is going to be as they played two terrible teams and then he was handed only 14 carries against NC State and needed a huge 80-yard TD to hit value. He probably won’t be getting many 80-yard TDs, but he could feasibly get 8 TDs against an overmatched CMU team. I think Estime is fine but his volume is a question as they look like they want to get the young guys behind him touches and this one is expected to get ugly with the Irish favored by nearly 40 points.
RB Nick Singleton, Penn State – $6,300
Choosing between Singleton and Estime is difficult for me as it really depends if you want to pay for an expensive WR or Estime. I prefer Estime in cash but probably Singleton in tournaments, although both are fine in all formats as stud ball carriers. There aren’t as many WRs I’m in love with so going 3 RBs looks tremendous to me, and Singleton is in the upper mid-range that looks so valuable this week. That allows you to pay up at either QB or WR at one spot.
WRs Emeka Egbuka ($7,800) and Marvin Harrison, Jr. ($9,100)
It should go without saying that the two OSU WRs are viable in any format on any slate. Egbuka is cheaper so looks more playable, but MHJ is better and is a former HS teammate of McCords. They’re both fine and it just depends on lineup construction. One takedown I had a year ago included a triple-stack with MHJ, Egbuka, and Fleming along with Stroud at QB — so while it seems obvious to play the OSU guys, apparently that’s not always so apparent. The offense is still looking to find its footing and therefore the stacking may not come to fruition yet, but WKU sucks defensively and will try to make this a shootout, so you never know. I’m more inclined to pay up for these guys as a one-off.
WR Luther Burden III, Mizzou – $5,900
I find it really hard to trust any Mizzou players in CFF, DFS, or props betting. The system seems completely random and impossible to predict. That’s why Burden isn’t a core play for me, although his pricing is absurd and he should be utilized heavily for the third straight game as Drink will need a big game out of his star player to beat Kansas State. We heard in the offseason that he’d be peppered with targets this year as he moves to the slot and that looks to be the case as he’s reeled in 15 receptions through two games. I think he’s fine in all formats and is my favorite non-Thrash WR, although that voice in the back of my mind that Drink produces random offensive production just will not be quiet. The logical side of my brain considers Burden a smash spot — if there’s anything to rely on with Mizzou, it should be the former 5-star.
WR Brock Bowers, Georgia – $4,700
Yes, I know he’s a TE — but DraftKings doesn’t believe in college TEs, so Bowers is a WR for the sake of this column and for lineup construction. Similar to what I was saying about Mizzou players (and that’s all they have in common), Bowers has completely random fantasy results and therefore is a GPP-only option. Still, he’s a top-5 player in the country and goes against a dreadful USCe team. Will he get more than one target? Who knows — but if he does, he could go for 30 fantasy points. This is a terrible pricing job my DraftKings per usual with TEs.
WR Keon Coleman, FSU – $6,500
Just a terrific price here on a guy who has 4 TDs in his first two games with FSU. His price is not prohibitive so he’s fine in all formats, although there are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense and it’s possible Norvell looks to spread the ball around more in this matchup in what should be a game that is never in doubt. Still, this pricing is really bad and therefore I’d be remiss to not mention it.
The G5 Guys
QB Austin Reed, WKU – $5,500
WR Malachi Corley, WKU – $4,700
RB Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss – $5,000
Figuring out what to do with the G5 guys priced way down on this slate is very tricky. I’m leaning toward not playing them much. All three are elite CFF assets but don’t have the greatest matchups. Reed will likely be playing from behind, but OSU’s defense looks much improved this year and the Buckeyes will likely dominate possession as WKU is allowing approximately a million rushing yards per game on defense. It’s entirely possible Reed outscores Johnson and is the top pay-down QB — I see it, but he’s not a priority for me.
Malachi Corley would be my favorite of the players on this list . . . but he was carted off in Week 1 and then missed Week 2 with a rib injury. The reporting on that one seemed weird to me — he was carted off with a bruised rib . . . then was reported to be playing in Week 2 but didn’t . . . and now he’s back to full speed? Too many question marks and it’s a difficult matchup, but he could go for something like 10 receptions for 90 yards in this spot and it wouldn’t be at all surprising. He’s in the same price range as Bowers and it’s possible to play them both, which I think most toilet-bowl lineup-setters will do. I see the line of thinking.
Gore gets the least difficult matchup, but Tulane has a good defensive front that returns everyone from a unit that a year ago limited him to 16-44-0. The Green Wave held Quinshon Judkins to 2.7 yards per carry last week and clearly has something going for them defensively. Southern Miss should be better offensively this year now that they actually have a quarterback, but it’s not like they’re better than Ole Miss. Gore is an explosive player and a workhorse, and his price is cheap. While the matchup is clearly difficult, it’s not to the level where Gore is unplayable. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gore is in the optimal lineup this week as he’ll be relied on heavily here in an intriguing G5 matchup, but there are definitely still reasons for concern.
