Sky View Thoughts on the Slate
This is somewhat of a brutal slate as there are a lot of ugly offenses. DK seems to be pricing most of the quarterbacks way up (and not doing too bad of a job with their ordering, actually) this season while not spending any time getting the RB or WR pricing accurate. It looks like we’ll have mostly expensive QBs and ridiculously cheap skill position players until further notice.
QB
Secondary Plays
Jaxson Dart ($9,700), Ole Miss; Michael Pratt ($8,800), Tulane
I don’t consider any QB to be a priority play on this slate as there aren’t many enticing options but there are a lot of decent plays. Dart and Pratt stand out in a game projected to be a shootout with a total of 67.5. Both can run a bit and have decent floors and high ceilings. Pratt is always a difficult projection in particular because the passing volume isn’t great and he therefore sees wild swings in his week-to-week performance, and Dart is all over the place, so both are GPP options only for me.
Jeff Sims, Nebraska – $7,200
Nebraska’s offense looked terrible in Week 1, I get it. You know who else looked terrible? Colorado’s defense. They have issues tackling and look like they want to turn every game into a shootout, so the Buffaloes will be super interesting on every DFS slate in which they’re featured. Sims handled a whopping 19 rushing attempts in Week 1 and could put forth a big day on the ground against a Colorado defense that allowed Emani Bailey to put forth an extreme outlier performance a week ago:
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado – $9,400
The Buffs set the world on fire in Week 1 and Sanders will look for another impressive showing after scoring 36.2 FPs against TCU. I’d expect Nebraska to slow the game down as much as possible, unlike TCU, and that means Sanders probably doesn’t go crazy again. Still, he’s a good quarterback with stackable WR options playing against a Cornhuskers defense that isn’t elite. I don’t have a strong read on the QBs this week as there are no clear options, so I simply consider Sanders as another part of the player pool.
Jordan McCloud, JMU – $5,000
All of the JMU players are too cheap this week but I don’t really want to play more than 1 or 2 of them. McCloud has been in college forever and looked great in relief last week, breathing life into a passing attack that sucked before he entered the game. He completed 7 of 11 passes for 144 yards (16.7 AY/A), two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He has a cheap stacking option I’ll mention later. Virginia was terrific in pass coverage LY, ranking 7th in Passing Explosiveness, but lost their top two CBs. They looked decent against Tennesee last week and the Volunteers are in a different stratosphere from JMU, so this is a difficult handicap. I think McCloud is absurdly mispriced on a slate where most of the QBs are accurately assessed. McCloud is fine in all formats at the end of the day.
Hudson Card, Purdue – $6,000
The other QB whose price sticks out is Card, who is simply too cheap for a Graham Harrel QB1. This isn’t a superb matchup against a decent Virginia Tech team on the road, but it’s also not terrible as the Hokies aren’t very good. Card had 21 FPs in Week 1 against a comparable Fresno State defense and a cheap stacking option in Deion Burks.
RB
Priority Play
Rasheen Ali, Marshall – $4,800
This is an egregious mispricing as Ali is a bonafide first-round CFF pick in season-long leagues and may finish as the RB1 overall in fantasy yet is priced like he’s a backup RB at Virginia. Woof. I won’t spend much time on this one as it’s an obvious and easy play. I recommend eating the chalk — it’s a 13-game slate, you can get different elsewhere. He should be owned in all cash games. This may not be a smash spot since ECU is a pass-funnel team and actually didn’t look too bad defending Michigan’s rushing attack last week. They ranked 34th in EPA per Rush LY and the FL is the strength of the team. It’s possible Ali isn’t in winning GPP lineups.
Quinshon Judkins, Ole Miss – $8,100
There are plenty of good, cheap WR options if you want to pay up for Judkins and pair him with Ali to get the RB1 and RB2 overall in CFF into the same lineup. Very affordable. Judkins is an absolute star and faces a Tulane team that is capable offensively of going score-for-score with Ole Miss to turn this one into a shootout. He’s great in all formats. Tulane is fine defensively, but let’s not get carried away — they finished outside the top 50 in EPA per Play LY and lose their top five tacklers.
GPP Darts & Punts
Gabe Ervin ($5,400) and Anthony Grant ($4,400), Nebraska
There’s a clear drop-off after the top two RBs. It’s possible to pay up for another one of the expensive RBs (i.e. Ray Davis at $7,700 or Donovan Edwards at $6,800) and that’s a viable strategy. Otherwise, if you’re hunting for leverage then I think one of the Nebraska RBs could break out either with, or in lieu of, Jeff Sims. My reasoning for Sims above applies here for the backs, but the issue is that Ervin and Anthony Grant ($4,400) split carries in Week 1 and Sims saps a lot of that usage away anyway. It may not matter if Colorado’s defense is as bad as they looked last week and the Buffs want to get into a shootout. Rhule wants to slow the game down and that should mean a lot more work for these two RBs.
Kaelon Black, JMU – $4,200
Likely a split workload in this backfield and playing an ACC defense that was good LY but lost its key pieces and looked soft last week. I think he’ll be over-owned and isn’t my preferred option, but he’s a good player with some receiving skill too, and is too cheap.
WR
Priority Play
Deion Burks, Purdue – $4,800
A terrible mispricing makes Burks my featured WR play of the week. He’s an explosive player who looked the part as Hudson Card’s WR1 this season, breaking out with 4-152-2 last week against a good Fresno State secondary. He’s always been an explosive player but it looks like he’ll have every chance to really round out his game and become a go-to target in this pass-happy offense after seeing 10 targets in Week 1. Graham Harrell’s WR1 has averaged 62-907-7 since 2017 and Burks has the game-breaking ability to be a fantastic GPP play. He’s not a must-play in cash, but the 10 targets last week is an encouraging sign for a player whose floor is difficult to calculate.
Secondary Plays
Evan Stewart, Texas A&M – $7,100
I’m a really big fan of Evan Stewart this season and am kicking myself for not playing him enough last week — it was an obvious smash spot, in hindsight, against New Mexico. Stewart balled out as a trFR LY on a terrible team and is poised to take the next jump in his progression for an improved offense that is centered around the passing attack. Petrino has described his offensive mindset as getting the ball to his star players as much as possible and Stewart is the best player on the team. I’m not scared by a Miami secondary that ranked 94th in EPA per Pass and 104th in Passing Success Rate LY. He’s priced in the same tier as the Colorado WRs who should be extremely popular, making him a good GPP target and he’s fine in cash as well.
Barion Brown, Kentucky – $5,600
I whiffed on Brown last week as he was one of my most-owned WRs but mustered just 12.9 FPs against a Ball State team that lost its entire secondary from last year. It’s evident this UK offense isn’t clicking on all cylinders yet, but that means they may try to iron out the kinks here in a soft matchup against an FCS team. “It could actually be good news that the offense isn’t operating well” — Galaxy Brain, I know. Still, Brown is an elite talent and gets a QB and OC upgrade so I view him very similarly to Stewart, only he’s cheaper and has a better matchup against an EKU defense that was absolutely ripped to shreds by Cincinnati last week. The broadcast kept mentioning how Coen was making attempts to get Brown the ball last week, and although it didn’t work out then, it could in Week 2.
Reggie Brown, JMU – $4,500
JMU had a terrific offense last year but lost all the key pieces of the passing attack except for Brown. That made him an interesting target going into the season, but I certainly soured on those expectations a bit when I checked the box score mid-game in Week 1 to see starting QB Alonza Burnett III going 3 for 11 passing for 15 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Yikes! They switched to McCloud mid-game and the passing attack took off with Brown going 3-77-1. He looks like the WR1 on this team and his price is way off, but there’s more volatility in this play than there might seem and I view him as more of a GPP play.
Punts
There are a lot of viable options right around $4K as that’s where DraftKings has thrown pretty much every tight end. Here are my favorite of those options.
Luke Lachey, Iowa – $4,100
Moose Muhammad III, Texas A&M – $4,200
Colston Loveland, Michigan – $4,100
Drake Dabney, Baylor – $4,000
Michael Trigg, Ole Miss – $3,700
Thomas Yassmin, Utah – $3,600
