There’s a seven-game CFB bowl slate on Saturday and I’ve returned from my slumber for more handicapping. I’m not sure how many of the slates I’ll cover from now until New Years — I’m vacationing the week following Christmas and won’t have a normal schedule. There’s a chance this is the last multi-game preview on my end for a week or so, so let’s make it a good one and win some bread.
Odds Board
Duke (+7.5) vs. Troy | Over/Under 44.5
Northern Illinois (+3) vs. Arkansas State | Over/Under 54.5
Air Force (+1.5) vs. James Madison | Over/Under 40.5
Utah State (-2.5) vs. Georgia State | Over/Under 59.5
Eastern Michigan (+17) vs. South Alabama | Over/Under 45
Utah (-6.5) vs. Northwestern | Over/Under 41.5
Coastal Carolina (+10) vs. San Jose State | Over/Under 51.5
Bowl slates can be fun because we get different time slots rather than cramming all the shitty Big Ten Noon games into main slates like DraftKings does for the regular season. This slate starts in the morning and ends with a nightcap in Hawai’i, so be prepared to tilt all day long if playing this slate. Anyway, I like Utah State -2.5 as my best bet for this slate.
Core Plays
*QB Jordan McCloud, JMU – $4,500
*WR Elijah Sarratt, JMU – $3,000
*Let’s start our analysis in the obvious place — no one knows what the hell is going on with the JMU players. Pretty much their entire coaching staff left for Indiana to the point where they hired five interim coaches just for the bowl game. Half of the team is also in the portal, including McCloud and Sarratt. It seems like they’ve been pretty adamant that all of the players in the portal will have the opportunity or the chance that they’ll play in the bowl game. For now, I’m assuming they’re all available because there hasn’t been any definitive news otherwise. There’s of course a chance that these guys don’t play and your lineup is screwed, so only play this slate if you’re able to monitor pregame warmup news to see who looks available. Personally, I’ll be on a state-wide trek to SoCal and won’t be monitoring news, so I might sit this slate out entirely if we don’t have confirmation of key players’ statuses soon. Anyway, you’re getting two no-brainer min-priced guys if they play, so think less and click their names if they’re available.
QB Levi Williams, Utah State – $6,400
WR Jalen Royals, Utah State – $6,900
Utah State sets up very well here offensively and the oddsmakers know it as the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl has the highest total on the board at 59.5. Future Navy Seal Levi Williams is expected to draw the start as Cooper Legas is still injured, and that means he’s set up for a productive outing against a terrible Georgia State defense that ranks 115th in EPA per pass and 112th in passing success rate. They’ve been gashed all year, allowed 400+ and 4 TDs to an FCS quarterback, and have six secondary players from the two deep in the portal. Williams ran for 25-153-3 in his only other start this season, has clear stacking options, and could win the illustrious honor of being a two-time Potato Bowl MVP. Royals is the obvious stacking option and I’d prefer a single-stack as Williams runs a lot rather than relying on passing volume like some other Utah State QBs.
RB Kairee Robinson, SJSU – $8,100
Kairee Robinson simply decided that he doesn’t want to get tackled this season and naturally that’s resulted in a very productive season in which he’s breaking records in addition to arm tackles. He averages an absurd 25.9 DK PPG and gets a soft matchup against a Coastal defense that ranks 103rd in EPA per rush, 115th in rushing success rate, 117th in line yards, 112th in stuff rate, and 118th in power success rate. This is a huge mismatch as SJSU has been elite running the ball this year and the Spartans should be fine despite being without their best offensive lineman.
Priority Plays
RB Kimani Vidal, Troy – $8,000
I feel like I get Vidal wrong on every slate, so buyer beware. If the JMU guys play then you can afford whatever you want, and I fancy Vidal, so sign me up. There’s probably only justification for fading him if both McCloud and Sarratt sit. Half of Duke’s defense is in the portal and they aren’t great at stopping the run anyway (69th in rushing success rate). Vidal is the focal point of the offense and has 18+ touches in nine of his last 10 games. Hard to avoid him in cash.
RB Antario Brown, NIU – $6,900
I was considering making Brown a core play but soured once we got the news that teammate Trayvon Rudolph withdrew his name for the portal. Brown still sets up well here against a bad Arkansas State defense (110th in EPA per play) that isn’t great against the run (93rd in EPA per rush, 84th in rushing explosiveness, 121st in power success rate). Brown is always hit or miss because he doesn’t catch passes and sees inconsistent volume, so he’s best for GPPs per usual. He’s a very explosive player and NIU holds huge advantages in the rushing game according to the metrics, so playing Robinson-Vidal-Brown in lineups looks great to me if JMU allows us to have that sort of fun.
WR Jordan Moore, Duke – $5,800
There seems to be a theme on this slate where QBs transition to WR (more on Nick Nash later) to become their team’s top target in the passing game. Moore could be ged targets in this contest and has been absolutely smashing lately with 28.1 DK PPG across his final three games of the season. He should get an even heavier workload now with the top two RBs out in addition to fellow WR Jalon Calhoun (48-642-4) opting out. By my count, he’ll be the only Duke skill position player available who has more than 205 scrimmage yards this season. It’s probably not a coincidence that his torrid run to end the year came with Grayson Loftis at QB. Expect Loftis to look his way early and often in a continuation of what’s been a terrific connection lately — Moore has 11+ targets in three straight games while averaging 13 in that span. I’d make him a core play but I don’t trust anything happening around Duke right now and will be looking for as much news as possible before kick.
Edit: Fellow Moore, Jaquez, returned from the portal. He has 665 scrimmage yards and 6 TDs this year so he makes the “no other skill player has 205 scrimmage yards” comment null. Still, Jordan is a very, very strong play regardless.
WR Reggie Brown, JMU – $5,700
Double-stack JMU, get rich. Wash, rinse, repeat. That formula may be thrown off balance considering the portal and opt-out hell we now all live in during bowl season, but it’s worked enough this season that it’s best not to overthink it. Brown is a 1,000-yard WR priced like he’s mid so this play makes sense regardless of who is available. He has less volatility than the other two considering he’s not in the portal or opting out (at least as of 12/21 @ 8:34 am PT), but he has a lot more volatility in his game considering he’s a boom-or-bust deep route option. Best for GPPs per usual. Air Force typically limits big passing plays (20th in passing explosiveness) for what that’s worth, but they also may not have the athletes to match JMU.
Secondary Plays
QB Darren Grainger, Georgia State – $7,400
QB Chevan Cordeiro, SJSU – $7,900
QB Ethan Vasko, Coastal – $6,600
Here are other QBs to consider, listed in order of preference. Georgia State has most of its team in the portal and that could be good or bad for Grainger. On one hand, his go-to WR is in the portal, and that hurts him. The offense in general could be bogged down without key skill players and offensive linemen. On the other hand, Grainger could be left to do it all himself rushing the ball considering the most experienced back on the roster for the bowl game has just six carries for 31 yards this season. That could result in heavy usage for Grainger and a big day, so he’s fine in all formats while carrying a fair amount of volatility.
Cordeiro hasn’t been good in fantasy this season because he doesn’t have many receiving options and that’s exacerbated now that Mazotti is in the portal. Still, he runs a fair amount and Coastal can be had on the ground, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Cordeiro goes out a Honolulu Hero with a big day including some rushing scores.
Vasko intrigued me a bit as a Kansas commit and he gets the start for Coastal now that the top two QBs are out. He’s played a bit this year and has shown to be a very strong rusher, ranking second on the team in rushing yards — difficult to do for a third-string QB! He had 21-170-1 against a good rush D in ODU and therefore could torch an SJSU defense that has been a lot better lately but still has one glaring weakness — a rush defense ranking 128th in EPA per rush, 96th in rushing success rate, and 99th in EPA per rush. Coastal should run the ball a lot in this matchup especially if receiver Jared Brown doesn’t play. Brown leads the team in scrimmage yards and is in the portal but his status is up in the air.
RB Freddie Brock, Georgia State – $4,500
Here’s the fella with six carries that I was alluding to in the Grainger blurb. Marcus Carroll (274-1350-13) and backup KZ Adams (35-61-0) are both outta town, leaving Brock as the next guy up. Brock has 1,145 rushing yards across three seasons at Maine and was all-Colonial in ‘21 after rushing for 720 yards. Utah State isn’t good against the run (79th in EPA per rush, 121st in rushing success rate) but does have a decent DL (35th in stuff rate, 31st in front seven havoc).
RB Braylon McReynolds, South Alabama – $5,100
He’s being projected pretty high on PrizePicks but I don’t know if I agree with those numbers. Star RB Ladamian Webb is out and it looks like the assumption is for McReynolds to smash considering he had over 20 DK points in his last game. The reason I’m not so sure if because Kentrel Bullock has been RB2 for much of the year and is a good player — he pushed Webb for playing time early in the year and has played over McReynolds for the most part. It sounds like Bullock may be still working his way back to 100% after being injured late in the year so there’s a lot of volatility here … but if both are healthy, they should split time. EMU is bad against the run (94th in rushing success rate, 118th in line yards, 114th in stuff rate) and USA is a huge favorite, so the recipe is there for a smash game.
WR Jamaal Pritchett, South Alabama – $5,900
Caullin Lacy left via the portal, vacating 91-1316-7. USA WR1s almost always smash and now Pritchett is the only player left with more than 212 receiving yards or 3 TDs. EMU isn’t bad defensively (61st in EPA per play, 59th in success rate) but they also play in the MAC and gave up 340 passing yards to UMass this season, so are you really going to talk yourself off a strong play because of those metrics?
WR Jabre Barber, Troy – $4,400
DraftKings has something against Barber so they misprice him every time he’s on the slate. Troy’s WR1 faces a shorthanded Duke team with major absences along the DL and more in the secondary. He has 99 targets on the year which is as many as Moore, averages a robust 2.68 yards per route run, and PFF really likes his stuff (78.0 receiving grade). What’s not to like?
WR Terrell Vaughn, Utah State – $6,800
Of course you can double-stack Utah State in a favorable matchup. As I said, I prefer the single stack, but Vaughn could easily pay off here as a WR who averages 19.6 DK PPG (second on the slate) and gets an A+ matchup.
WR Sam Pinckney, Coastal – $5,600
If Brown is out then Pinckney looks like a fine play as a clear WR1 with a lot of talent getting a ridiculously low price tag. Vasko is a rush-first QB so that’s not great, but it may not matter when every other factor is in Pinckney’s favor. I like him more in GPPs. He could reach 1,000 yards in this game and yet is priced like he’s a mid tight end.
WR Trayvon Rudolph, NIU – $6,100
I’m not even sure if he’s going to play considering he was just in the portal. Stay tuned for the latest news, but as of now, we should expect him to see the field considering he’s back with NIU after testing the waters. That makes him a GPP option. He came on strong to end the year and that makes sense considering he was slowed early in the season as he recovered from injury. He’s as likely to get you single-digit DK points as he is to get you 30, so don’t even think about him in cash.
WR Nick Nash, SJSU – $6,400
There isn’t much separating the WRs on this slate so Nash is viable. He’s SJSU’s clear alpha and that will be even more so the case with Mazotti out of the picture. Nash has 39 more targets than any other Spartan and although Coastal is good against the pass (12th in EPA per pass), matchup concerns are mitigated when you have a clear WR1 in the passing game.
PrizePicks
Friday: Jamal Haynes OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards
Friday: Haynes King OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Levi Williams OVER 205.5 Passing Yards
Jabre Barber OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards
Jamaal Pritchett OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards
Darren Grainger OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards
Kairee Robinson OVER 101.5 Rushing Yards
