College Football Saturday 12/16 – DraftKings, PrizePicks, and Player Props

Bowl season kicks off with a five-game slate on DraftKings this Saturday. I’ve got you covered with my favorite plays on the board as well as some player props and PrizePicks. 

Note: My goal is to have a preview out for every multi-game “main slate” during bowl season, as I’ve done throughout the regular season. I’d try to get props out for the single-game midweek bowls, but if so I’ll likely put those out on Twitter as there won’t be enough for an article.

Odds Board

Jacksonville State (-2.5) vs. Louisiana | Over/Under 59

Miami OH (+6.5) vs. App State | Over/Under 43 

New Mexico State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State | Over/Under 51 

Boise State (+4.5) vs. UCLA | Over/Under 48.5

California (+3) vs. Texas Tech | Over/Under 56.5 

Decent little five-game slate here. I hit Boise State and Miami plus the points and will be monitoring the Cal/TTU Over as I like that the number is dropping and went below a key number of 58.

Core Plays

QB Zion Webb, JacSt – $7,000

RB Tahj Brooks, TTU – $7,500

RB Jaydn Ott, Cal – $8,400

This slate is extremely RB-heavy as there are five good options at that position. QB and WR are both much more scarce, making lineup decisions difficult and likely resulting in a lot of 4 RB lineups, which makes sense to me. The pricing is also pretty tight as the good RBs are priced up to QB range and therefore you’re forced to make some difficult decisions. 

Webb is the best value at QB on a slate without much value for premium players. He’s scored at least 31 DK points in four of his last six games and has only one real dud in that span — the regular season finale where he mustered just 9.02 points as my starting QB in a few CFF season-long championships. Bummer. Anyway, he’s been really good this year and runs a ton for an uptempo Rich Rod offense, so this one pretty much speaks for itself. You don’t have to stack him and he makes the RBs more affordable than trying to force expensive QBs. The main concern is how he handles a step-up in competition (CUSA is terrible, Sun Belt isn’t). Louisiana is pretty bad on D (81st in EPA per play, 118th in success rate) and Webb could have a big day on the ground (Louisana 92nd in EPA per rush, 120th in rushing success rate, 131st in stuff rate). 

Both RBs look very appealing in the Cal/TTU game. There are so many good RBs on this slate that you can mix and match as you see fit, but this game does set up well. Brooks is coming back to Lubbock next season and therefore should see a pretty good amount of touches here against a Cal defense I’ve been fading to much success all year. The Bears rank 92nd in EPA per play and are bad against the rush (98th in rushing success rate) yet lazy folks who haven’t watched them play still think they have a decent defense because of Justin Wilcox. Oh yeah, and their top 3 LBs might be hurt. Ott has been one of fantasy’s best RBs this season and faces a bad TTU rush D (91st in EPA per rush, 80th in rushing explosiveness, 95th in line yards, 09th in stuff rate, 124th in front seven havoc). It’s a difficult decision between him and Jeanty, who are similarly priced, but Ott has a batter matchup and I’d imagine he’s less popular considering Jeanty’s gaudy PPG number. 

Priority Plays

QB Diego Pavia, New Mexico State – $8,600

Pavia is obviously in consideration as he’s his team’s entire offense and averaged 24.1 DK PPG. He’s in play in all formats. Now that that’s out of the way, let me mention some reasons why I don’t consider him a core play. First, he’s priced up right above stud RBs Jeanty and Ott, who I’d rather have. Secondly, I’m not sure about his health — he had an MRI on his throwing arm (conflicting reports regarding if it was on his shoulder or elbow, but his throwing shoulder has been hurt for a few weeks anyway). The coaching staff previously said they’d be pleased if he’s back throwing in practice by Monday of bowl week, meaning he likely hasn’t thrown a whole lot in practice and will be at less than 100%. Thirdly, he’ll be without one of his WRs who caught 10 TDs this year but hit the portal. Webb is basically the same thing as Pavia but less expensive so that’s where I’m starting lineups, but Pavia still has a decent ceiling (30+ DK points three times this season). 

QB Behren Morton, TTU – $8,000

Morton is a GPP pivot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cal/TTU turned into a bit of a shootout, so it’s a game I want to have a few pieces of. Morton hasn’t been healthy all year but got some much-needed time to heel after playing through a Grade-3 AC sprain in his throwing shoulder. He plays in an uptempo spread offense and faces a horrific Cal defense, so there’s 100% a recipe for him to have a big fantasy day. I’ve gotten Morton wrong all year (sucks when I play him, returns great value when I don’t) so I have some hesitation as well, but bias aside he’s a fine play and won’t be popular due to his insane price. 

RB Ashton Jeanty, BSU – $8,500

He’s PFF’s highest-graded RB (100+ min carries) and one of the sport’s best players, so of course he’s in play here on a small slate. BSU will be on a trFR third-string QB and has been running the ball every play anyway, so Jeanty’s volume should be pretty healthy here after announcing he’s returning to the Broncos next season. UCLA has been extremely stingy against RBs (69.6 rushing YPG allowed) and that’s an obvious concern that I will mitigate (but not dismiss) with a few points. First off, this defense sucked for years under Chip until DC D’Anton Lynn came to town and turned things around. He’s taken a job across town and won’t be coaching in this game. Secondly, Latu isn’t playing and he’s UCLA best player and the calculus will change up front without his presence. Third, UCLA plays against a decent amount of pass-first teams in the Pac-12 and therefore their (amazing) numbers are (slightly) inflated. Fourth, BSU has been so good rushing the ball (7th in EPA per rush, 8th in rushing success rate) that they might find success in a strength-on-strength matchup (UCLA 2nd in EPA per rush, 5th in rushing explosiveness). BSU’s OL ranks 10th in line yards and fifth in power success rate and may not be completely overwhelmed against this (possible unmotivated and no longer well-coordinated) front. Last I checked, UCLA didn’t even name an interim DC for the bowl game. 

RB Rashad Amos, Miami – $6,500

Amos should be relied upon to generate offense for a Miami team with a good defense but playing on its third-string QB offensively. Amos has 21+ DK points in four of his last five ames and clearly this team’s most talented offensive player to my eyes. This is a plus matchup as App State has been brutal against the rush for much of the year. They improved for a few games to end the regular season but then surrendered 270 and 5 TDs on the ground to Troy in the championship game. It’s hard for me to picture them being super motivated after that effort, so I catagorize this as a plus matchup for Amos against a team that ranks 121st in EPA per rush, 102nd in rushing success rate, and 111th in rushing explosiveness. They have a soft defensive front (125th in line yards, 110th in power success rate) and check in at 114th in PFF’s rush defense grade. 

Secondary Plays

RB Malik Sherrod, Fresno State – $6,800

Sherrod is the fifth RB in my consideration and that’s crazy because he averaged basically 20 DK PPG (19.9), has a cheap price point, and gets a decent matchup. He’s fine in all formats and can help build out rosters if you don’t pay up for both Jeanty and Ott. Fresno is a difficult handicap because I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re straight up a better team than NMSU and it surprises people if NMSU is overrated after playing a soft schedule. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all if they aren’t motivated in this spot — Tedford isn’t coaching due to more health concerns, and this team’s dreams of winning the MWC failed miserably as they limped to the finish line. I lean more toward that line of thinking the more the week goes on — the Aggies did roll Auburn not long ago, after all. NMSU isn’t good defensively and is especially poor against the rush (106th in EPA per rush, 105th in rushing success rate, 98th in PFF’s tackling grade).

WRs Coy Eakin ($5,000), Xavier White ($4,600), and Drae McCray ($3,500) – TTU

A bunch of TTU WRs hit the portal, meaning these three guys should see the field a ton. Jordan Brown ($3,800) likely starts with Eakin on the outside and White on the inside … if Brown is healthy — he’s questionable with a hammy. All are fine in all formats. Eakin leads this team with 29 targets across his last four games. White is second (19) in that span while McCray is third (15). Eakin is the safest, White is a very strong play, and McCray is a bit more risky but has game-breaking speed and might be the best paydown option on this slate. All of them have a good matchup and would see a boost if Morton is actually healthy, as is being reported. 

WR Kaedin Robinson, App State – $5,600

The WR options are terrible on this slate. Robinson has 28 targets across his last four games with a whopping 6 TDs in that span. He’s averaging more DK PPG (15.8) than any WR on the slate and has a very affordable price, so he’s an obvious option in all formats. It’s a tough matchup but there’s a chance Miami’s D doesn’t look very good outside of the MAC (493 yards on 8.1 YPP to Miami FL, 538 yards on 5.9 YPP against Cinci, 5.7 YPP to FCS school Delaware State). 

WR Logan Loya, UCLA – $5.500

Loya surprised everyone to emerge as UCLA’s go-to WR this season. I have no idea what the hell Chip Kelly is doing, but I won’t question it because the numbers are the numbers and Loya has 9 receptions in back-to-back games, double-digit DK points in seven of his last eight games, and leads the slate with 37 targets across his last four games. Boise State’s secondary has been bad this year but has been better lately, although they recently gave up a fair amount of plays to UNLV’s diminutive slot man John De Jesus (Loya 97.5% slote over last four games).

WRs Jeremiah Hunter ($6,100), Trond Grizzell ($5,200), and Jack Endries ($4,000 – Cal

Both Cal WRs are appealing here at discounted prices while the TE Endries is a good paydown option. TTU has been better against the pass (34th in EPA per pass, 18th in passing success rate) but was also without two defensive starters against Texas and got absolutely blown out. Taj Davis was the third WR in the rotation but is no longer with the team, so Hunter and Grizzell should dominate the WR targets in this game. Hunter has 17+ DK points in six games this year and is a great play in all formats. Grizzell is a GPP-only option with 18+ DK points in three games but single-digit DK points in six games. Endries has emerged as a large part of this offense as the season has gone on and has 13+ DK points in three of his last eight games. 

WRs Mac Dalena ($5,200) and Erik Brooks ($5,800) – Fresno State 

You tell me if you’ve been able to figure out Fresno’s WRs this year. They’ve been rotating a ton and different guys have emerged at different points and it’s been very hard to get them right on any given slate. Dalena has the most targets on the team (and second most on the slate of any team) over the last 4 games with 29 while Brooks is second with 26. This makes Dalena appealing as he has the cheapest price. Brooks could pop off and I wouldn’t be at all surprised — he was a monster to start the year, got hurt and did nothing for a few months, and then has re-emerged as a contributor lately. Jalen Moss ($6,600) plays a full-time role but is very expensive and has just 15 targets in his last four games. 

Player Props & PrizePicks

Ashton Jeanty Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110) and 40+ Receiving Yards (+230) (DK) 

Parker Navarro Under 166.5 Passing Yards (DK)

Logan Loya Over 13.5 Fantasy Points

Behren Morton Over 16.5 Fantasy Points

Rashad Amons Over 0.5 Rush TDs