Back again for another two-game CUSA slate preview. There’s going to be a ton of chalk on this slate so I don’t find it particularly interesting. I’m going to choose to mostly play the chalk and might even play cash, which I almost never do, as that’s the way the slate is pointing in my opinion.
Odds Board
Jacksonville State (-8) @ FIU | Over/Under 47.5
UTEP (+3.5) @ Sam Houston State | Over/Under 36.5
I hit the UTEP/SHSU Over at 36, which is disgusting. Jacksonville State has the highest implied total on the board and they rotate every position while rarely having WRs of note, so this slate is about as gross as it gets.
Core Plays
QB Zion Webb, JacSt – $6,800
QB Keegan Shoemaker – $6,600
RB Anwar Lewis, JacSt – $5,900
WR Noah Smith, SHSU – $6,900
Bigger core for this slate because they’re all obvious plays and there’s no reason to shy away from them. Webb and Lewis have been Jacksonville State’s best offensive players and one would imagine they have a productive day against an FIU defense that recently allowed 7.2 yards per play to pitiful UTEP offense on its third (fourth?) string QB, 8.0 YPP to Liberty, 7.1 YPP to NMSU, and 410 total yards to a bad SHSU offense. Rich Rod likes to do weird things so stay tuned for news regarding JacSt’s starting QB as they’ve rotated them basically every week, but right now Webb seems locked in for this week at least while Lewis should be productive whether or not his teammate Malik Jackson ($6,300) returns).
Shoemaker and Smith are a no-brainer stack at the Bearkats have been hucking it 40+ times per game with consistency after switching up their offensive approach since they had no healthy rushing attack and were one of the worst offenses of all time to begin the year anyway. Smith has more targets than any WR in the country across his last four games and has juiced odds to find the end zone.
Priority Plays
RB John Gentry, SHSU – $5,200
Playing three RBs is viable and Gentry makes a ton of sense in cash but is still fine in all formats. He reportedly wasn’t at 100% health in his return to the field last week but still handled a big workload (18 touches) and should continue to do so for a Bearkats backfield that has been decimated by injuries. In his last two healthy games, he first carries the ball 30 times while posting 3-85-1 receiving to score 27.2 DK points against JacSt, and most recently had 7-36-0 receiving to manage 13.5 DK points against FIU despite not being able to find any rushing room. His PPR floor makes him very appealing and he can easily be stacked with his QB.
RB Deion Hankins, UTEP – $5,700
I’ve fought Hankins the last few weeks but by now it’s clear the staff wants to force feed him touches as he has 15+ carries in three straight games. He should get the goal line work as well and there may be some running lanes as UTEP projects to have a slight advantage up front when it has the ball.
WR Kris Mitchell, FIU – $7,400
I don’t want more than one FIU player in my lineups as the Panthers should be at a big disadvantage when they have the ball:
| Metric | FIU Offense (Rank) | SHSU Defense (Rank) |
| EPA per Play | 94th | 24th |
| Success Rate | 105th | 8th |
| Line Yards | 106th | 14th |
| Front Seven Havoc | 132nd | 38th |
This tells me to mostly fade FIU and Mitchell is the clear star of the show offensively, scoring 12+ DK points in six straight games, so I’d prefer to play him as a one-off.
WR Kelly Akharaiyi, UTEP – $6,400
He’s maddening because UTEP stinks and has no QB, but he’s likely to receive 10 targets in this game with at least half of those being deep shots downfield. He’s boom or bust, scoring 45.3 DK points two weeks ago and then falling flat on his face with 1.6 DK points against NMSM last week. The way to beat SHSU’s defense is to spread them out and beat them with speed — UTEP won’t spread anyone out but AK is their best bet to win with speed. On the off chance his QB, Gavin Hardison, is confirmed to return to the field tonight then I’m locking AK in as a core play. If not, he’s a boom-or-bust option that will decide the slate.
Secondary Plays
WR Jeremiah Ballard, UTEP – $5,400
UTEP is basically only throwing the ball to Ballard and AK, so both are fine options each week. Ballard has actually been more consistent than his teammate but that’s not saying much as there will be little consistency with the unit as the QB play has been atrocious for most of the year. He gets targeted a bit less than AK but has brought in more of his targets. AK is the clear GPP play while Ballard is still fine in all formats as his massive aDOT (19.3 over the last two weeks).
WR Malik Phillips, SHSU – $5,300 (all formats)
WR Al’Vonte Woodard, SHSU – $5,100 (GPPs)
WR Elijah Sohn, SHSU – $3,700 (GPPs)
Adding another Bearkats receiving option in lineups makes a lot of sense and Phillips looks like your safest bet considering he has 19 targets over his last two games. He looks like a very strong play again on this slate. Woodard isn’t far off with 15 in that span, although he has been less efficient with his looks. Sohn is a dart throw punt on a slate without many — the former swimmer has a cool story and you’ll get to listen to it again if he finds the end zone.
WR P.J. Wells, JacSt – $3,700
WR Perry Carter, JacSt – $5,200
I mostly avoid JacSt WRs and plan to do so again tonight for the most part, although I’m intrigued by Wells after he saw a whopping 10 targets last game in his return from injury. I’m mostly pessimistic because he had just 11 catches for 139 yards all of last season, but it’s very rare that you’ll see a Rich Rod WR get double-digit targets in a game and therefore one has to wonder if Wells will continue to be heavily involved going forward, and his price is very cheap. I’ll mostly fade Carter but he’s fine in GPPs as he’s been the Gamecock’s most reliable target by far this season.
WR Eric Rivers, FIU – $4,000
Another punt option, Rivers has seen 19 targets across his last four games and is now established as a critical piece of this offense. He’s simply too cheap especially considering his team is at home and projected to be playing from behind.
